Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - Arnold Palmer Invitational

After a fun little hors d'oeuvre in Palm Beach Gardens, the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing moves quickly into the first of two upcoming main courses: the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.

Although the cache of Arnie’s event has always helped Bay Hill draw its fair share of star power, 2023 brings this event the much-coveted “Elevated” status, and with it, the strongest field we’ve ever seen here at the King’s Court. Not only are we getting API debuts from stars like Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, and Tom Kim, but Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, and Collin Morikawa are all making the trip to Orlando for the first time since 2020.

Don’t expect a friendly welcome from the golf course and SuperIntendent Chris Flynn, however, as Bay Hill routinely presents one of the more grueling tests on the PGA Tour schedule.

The Golf Course

“Major Championship Conditions,” is a descriptor often overused in golf media, but with winning scores of (-5), (-11), (-4), and (-12), over the last 4 years, Bay Hill might be the closest we’ve come in 2023 to seeing an elite field tested on a USGA-esque setup.

Unlike your traditional short, positional Florida track, Bay Hill measures 7,466 yards on the scorecard, plays as a Par 72, and features firm greens, fiery fairways, and 3-4” thick Bermuda/Ryegrass rough.

Outside of the four Par 5’s, only one other hole at Bay Hill has historically played under par. The other 13 Par 3’s and 4’s play a combined (+2.06) shots over par and 10 of those holes carry at least a 20% Bogey or Worse rate. 

When approaching this routing from a live-betting angle, there are really only two categories of holes to be aware of: the Par 5’s where your player stands a decent chance of making birdie, and every other hole where the objective is to hold on for dear life.

In particular, the 1st, 2nd, 8th, 9th, 11th, 14th, 15th, 17th, and 18th are all holes I would label as “Bogey-Avoidance opportunities,” as a Par on any of these holes would cut the average field by two-tenths of a stroke, and a birdie on any one of them would represent a huge green flag for a player's weekly prospects. 

The operative word when live betting at Bay Hill is “patience.” Three of the last four winners at Bay Hill have done so despite shooting at least one-over-par round over the course of the week. And given how much peril lurks around this course, no lead is truly safe until the final putt is holed.

This is never a venue where I would “buy high” on a quick starter out of the gates. Instead, wait on the tournament to develop, identify a few slow-starters that stand a chance of posting a low round early on the weekend, and watch his name shoot up the leaderboard as the afternoon chaos ensues.

This philosophy is further backed by the heavy winds being forecasted for the Orlando area this week. As I write this Wednesday morning, Friday seems to be getting the worst of it, with sustained winds forecasted from 17-21 mph (starting at ~10 am), and gusts reaching 28-31.

Bay Hill is challenging enough in calm conditions, but anyone forced to play these 18 holes in 20-30 mph winds may as well prepare themselves for a round in the mid-70s (at best). I’ve tentatively put a red flag through the entire Friday PM wave, and I anticipate some real carnage for the poor souls trying to make it in under the cut line that afternoon.

The Winning Profile

Looking back at the past champions of this event: (Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishman, and Jason Day over the last 7 years), a clear pattern emerges. Five of the last seven winners also have a major championship to their name, and six of the seven have been ranked inside the OWGR's top five at some point in their careers 

This is a players-only type of week, as Bay Hill will have no problem exposing the minute deficiencies of the world’s best. 

In particular, I’m looking for elite drivers of the golf ball, as Bay Hill has shown a bit of vulnerability to big hitters in recent history. Bryson, Rory, Jason Day, and even lower-tier players like Keith Mitchell and Luke List have been able to find success here on the back of an elite driver.

However, the number one objective off the tee here is to avoid the hazards and the gnarled rough, so driving distance isn’t a complete fix-all around a course as tough as this. Players will have to possess distance and accuracy to fully take advantage of the openings available off-the-tee, and perhaps no other course on Tour does a better job of exposing the short and inaccurate. If I can’t trust your driver, you have no place on my betting card this week. 

I can sum up approach play at Bay Hill in two words: Long Irons. Nearly 30% of historical approach shots have come from more than 200 yards (the largest percentage on Tour), and I count at least eight holes where players can expect to have at least a 6-iron into these rock-hard greens.

This type of approach distribution further illustrates the importance of keeping your tee shot in the short grass, as approaches from 185 in the rough will be nearly impossible to stop on these greens no matter how prolific of a long iron player you are. 

Bay Hill also ranked as the toughest course on Tour last year in Green in Regulation %, meaning scrambling and short game will be as heavy a factor as we’ve seen all year. Bay Hill is also one of the most heavily bunkered courses on the schedule, so feel free to weigh Sand Saves alongside the run-of-the-mill SG: ARG, Scrambling %, and Bogey Avoidance.

We saw it to a lesser degree a few weeks ago at Phoenix, but firm greens and heavy winds make for a nightmare scenario for our favorite pure ball-strikers. If you expect to contend around a course like this, you’d better bring a top-class short game to the party. 

And finally, the green complexes themselves. As a general rule, firm typically equals fast when it comes to greens, and Bay Hill’s are no different. You can expect these greens to roll at an eye-popping 12-12.5 on the Stimpmeter, and Florida winds will further exacerbate the headaches these players will face.

Because I’ve placed such a high emphasis on all-around tee-to-green play, I don’t have putting weighed nearly as highly in my modeling. However, I would like to see some sort of positive history on lightning-fast Bermuda greens.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Max Homa (25-1): After our “Big Three” of Rory, Rahm, and Scheffler, it always feels like a revolving door at the top of the golfing hierarchy. But over the last two months, nobody has made a better case as the fourth-best golfer on the planet than Max Homa.

Just one month removed from a win at another long, difficult golf course at Torrey Pines, and two weeks from coming two shots short at his beloved Riviera, Homa’s game looks to be at the peak of its power. Unlike his fellow Californians at the top of the odds board, Max already has an extensive record of success at Arnie’s Place: recording T17, T10, and T24 finishes over the last three years here.

He’s never lost strokes off the tee at Bay Hill and has gained nearly two strokes per round between his irons and putter. There’s simply not an aspect of Homa’s game that doesn’t have my full trust, and he seems to thrive when stakes are raised and conditions are the most difficult. I’ll gladly put my faith in Max at 25-1 this week.

Xander Schauffele (25-1): As you could probably guess from his sterling U.S. Open track record, Xander possesses about every skill you would want at a long, difficult golf course.

Schauffele ranked third in Total Driving on Tour last season, he’s long been considered one of the best bunker players on the planet, and is currently on one of the more under-appreciated ball-striking stretches in recent history: gaining over four strokes on approach per tournament since last years BMW Championship, whilst rating out as the best player in this field in approach proximity from 200 yards and up.

Although he may not have the same gaudy track record around Bay Hill as someone like Rory or Hatton, Xander did finish T24 in his only ever API start and took very quickly to these lightning-fast Bermuda Greens (finishing fifth in the field in SG: Putting for the week).

I’ve long knocked Xander’s place on odds boards when compared to more prolific winners like Cantlay, Morikawa, and Justin Thomas, but at 25-1, it seems we’re finally getting a bit of a discount on Schauffele at a venue he should set up perfectly for.

Shane Lowry (80-1): Obviously, strength of field plays a huge factor in weekly pricing, but it still seems quite jarring to me that a player of Shane Lowry’s caliber can lead the Honda Classic field from T2G and get pushed down over 60 points on the following weeks' odds board.

Shane continues to play immaculate all-around golf, and rates out exceptionally well in a number of key metrics this week: seventh in the field on Approach (last 50 rounds), tenth in Long Iron Proximity (over 200 yards), second in Sand Saves, 15th in Bogey Avoidance, and fourth in Par 5 Scoring. Either I’m missing something in the stats, or this is the biggest misprice on the entire betting board.

I do acknowledge the lousy course history around Bay Hill (4 MCs in 4 starts), however, Lowry’s never come into the API with this sort of lead-in form. Given the underlying metrics and his documented success throughout the state of Florida, I have to take a shot at 80-1, and in full disclosure: any continued life from the ball-striking and we’re heading right back to the well at Sawgrass.

Tommy Fleetwood (80-1): Very much the opposite of stat-darling Shane Lowry, Tommy’s case rests almost exclusively on his success at this venue and his continued propensity to pop up at other wind-swept, difficult golf courses.

Tommy’s got about as extensive of a track record around Bay Hill as you can find at 80-1 (T20, T10, MC, T3, T26, T10), and his 2022 results here in the United States further highlight his ability to thrive in tough conditions:

• 4th at the 2022 CJ Cup from Congaree: long, firm, and fiery Bermuda course in the Southeast with lightning-fast green complexes.
• 4th at both the 2022 Open Championship and St. Andrew’s as well as the Genesis Scottish Open at Renaissance Club: firm and fast links courses that are heavily exposed to wind (particularly at Renaissance last year).
• 5th at the 2022 PGA Championship from Southern Hills: another long, difficult, ball-strikers golf course that was significantly impacted by inclement weather and wind.
• 14th at the 2022 Masters: extremely difficult scoring conditions, greens were particularly firm last year and always play lightning quick.
• 10th at Harbour Town, 16th at Valspar, and 22nd at Sawgrass: not exactly direct comps to Bay Hill, but these results further emphasize an established comfort in the Southeast. Sawgrass and Innisbrook were both affected by wind/inclement weather early in the week.

Gary Woodland (90-1): From a ball-striking perspective, there aren’t many players that fit Bay Hill better than Gary Woodland. He rates inside the top 20 in both of my key driving metrics (SG: OTT and Driving Distance), and he’s #3 in this field in long-iron proximity from 200 yards-plus.

It’s been difficult to trust Gary since the injury bug began to plague him in 2020, but a T9 finish at Riviera in which he gained a career-best 9.7 shots on Approach is as clear a green flag as we’ve seen in years.

Now we return to a venue where he held the outright lead with two holes to play last year, and books don’t seem to be paying his winning prospects much mind at 90-1. I’ll gladly take the leap on Gary here. If his recent splits are any indication, we could be in the midst of a career resurgence from one of the better ball-strikers in recent memory.

• With these five names on the card, we’ve officially used up ~70% of our weekly outright budget. Due to the elite strength of field and the incredibly difficult scoring conditions, this isn’t a week I’m looking to get too creative in-tournament. I anticipate my final move to be somewhere in the 25-40 range, and it won’t be on a player priced greater than 50-1 on the pre-tournament odds board. This is a week to keep the shortlist small, stay patient, and allow the values to come to you. Much like golfers trying to chase birdies around Bay Hill, if you start forcing bets around here, it won’t take long before you’re looking to dig yourself out of a deep hole. With that being said, here are the primary names I’ve got my eye on as the tournament gets underway.

The Shortlist

Collin Morikawa (20-1): Before I start my patented Collin Morikawa hype piece, new readers should know that he is my favorite golfer on Tour right now, and I will fully admit that I want to see him win when I’m in attendance on Sunday afternoon.

However, from a pure betting angle, the elite accuracy he possesses off the tee, coupled with some of the best long-iron splits in the field and the most favorable wind draw of any of the young in-form ball-strikers (Hovland, Zalatoris, Cam Young), makes him a very scary proposition to fade at a venue like Bay Hill.

We’ve seen less heralded players with a similar tee-to-green profile find continual success around here (Conners, Keegan, Hoge), and Collin gained a whopping 14.6 shots to the field between his driver and irons the last time he made the trip to Orlando (still a career best).

Morikawa’s last 5 worldwide starts have resulted in a T6, 3rd, 2nd, and 6th. He’s as hot as he’s been since making the run at the #1 spot in the World Rankings to end 2021, eventually, things have to break his way on Sunday afternoon.

Tyrrell Hatton (33-1): We don’t usually get to see a ton of Tyrrell in the United States before his traditional season debut in Florida, but the eight-figure prize pools we saw in Phoenix and Los Angeles managed to pull the Englishman away from his beloved European Tour to start 2023. What we saw were some really provocative ball-striking splits from Hatton (particularly in a 6th place finish around TPC Scottsdale).

Now we head to the site of his only stateside victory, and far and away his most successful venue on the PGA Tour (2nd, 21st, 1st, 29th, 69th, 4th in six starts). Hatton loves a firm and fast setup above all else, and he’s not afraid to charge up the leaderboard on days when most of the field is ready to submit a formal complaint on course conditions.

33-1 does seem to be a bridge too far for me on Hatton in a field this loaded, but I can’t argue with anyone who cites his affinity for the exact type of test we have in store this week. His live odds are certainly worth keeping an eye on, and his stock only grows in my eyes the more Bay Hill bears its teeth.

Tony Finau (25-1): Very much like Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau has every tool you could want on a long, difficult, Major Championship-esque setup. He’s long been one of the PGA Tour’s premier drivers of the ball, and Tony’s not been far behind Xander in recent approach metrics: averaging over 3.5 strokes gained per tournament with his irons.

Tony's done a lot of his best ball-striking work on difficult setups: 7.2 at Torrey Pines, 9.5 at Houston, 6.9 at Phoenix, but the main contention point I have with Finau this week revolves around his short game. Finau's lost strokes on and around the greens in 3 of 4 starts around Bay Hill, and he doesn’t quite have the long-term baseline of elite short-game play to excuse away a small sample.

However, it wasn’t long ago that Finau was very much in the conversation for the 4th best player on the planet, and he hasn’t exactly done a lot wrong over the last few months. If you want to take a shot at 25-1 I’ve got no problem with it, I’ll be taking a bit more of a wait-and-see approach to Big Tone. 

Matt Fitzpatrick (33-1): To this point, every name I’ve brought up as an outright bet or a part of the live-add shortlist has come from one-half of the draw. I’ve mentioned before that I’ve tentatively crossed off most names that are going to be dealing with the Friday afternoon winds, but Matthew Fitzpatrick is a bit of a special case.

I can honestly say that if the entire tournament was being set to play in 20-30 mph sustained winds, Fitzpatrick would be my biggest position of the week. The 2022 U.S. Open Champion is tailor-made for long, difficult golf courses, and his combination of elite driving and short game has produced a wonderful CV here at Bay Hill (9th, 10th, 9th, 2nd, 13th in 5 of his last 6 starts).

Fitzpatrick has never lost strokes on these greens in 8 starts and has gained around the greens in his last 7. If anyone can overcome this difficult weather draw and plod his way into contention, look no further than the 28-year-old Englishman. 

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