Projecting the Value of Starters Who Changed Scenes: Carlos Rodon, Pablo Lopez, Carlos Estevez

February 15, 2023

Casey looks at the effects of 3 fantasy baseball pitchers changing teams in the 2023 offseason and explains what it means for their fantasy value in the upcoming season.

Often, a change of self is needed more than a change of scene, but for some, that change can create new opportunities. For others, that change can come with roadblocks. Today, we're going to look deeper into three pitchers in entirely different environments in 2023 and what that change will mean for their fantasy baseball production moving forward.

With change comes some uncontrollable barriers that can alter pitchers' seasons or careers. Home ballparks, opportunities in their role, coaching philosophies, and many other factors can impact a pitcher's chance of success.

Identifying these changes and predicting whether they will impact or hinder production can separate us in our drafts.

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Carlos Rodón enters 2023 wearing the daunted pinstripes and will look to help bring back a World Series to the Bronx. Rodón makes the Yankees rotation one of baseball's tops heading into this campaign. He will be joining the likes of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. He is undoubtedly accustomed to pitching in new environments, as this will be his third team in three years.

Rodón is coming off back-to-back seasons in which his numbers would suggest he is one of the true dominant aces at our disposal. Let's compare his 2021 campaign with the White Sox and last season with the Giants to CUTTER and ATC projections for this season.

• 2021, 13-5, 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 185 strikeouts, 132.2 innings pitched
• 2022, 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 strikeouts, 178 innings pitched
• CUTTER 2023, 15-8, 3.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 224 strikeouts, 174 innings pitched
• ATC 2023, 13-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 220 strikeouts, 171 innings pitched

Although it looks like CUTTER and ATC project Rodón to have a slight dip in production, it is nothing alarming as his strikeouts still look to be there. The Yankees will be one of the MLB's most dominant teams. Hence, being able to hit the ceiling in wins is achievable and assumably should mean more quality starts in the process.

Rodón has been so good because of how elite his four-seam fastball is. Last season, he led baseball with 135 strikeouts off this pitch. It also has a -22 run value, ranking this as the seventh-best pitch in all of the MLB. He throws his heater 61.2% of the time, allowing him to deploy one of the best pitches in baseball at an extremely high rate. As long as his velocity stays in the 95 MPH range instead of the 92 MPH range, a jump he made in 2021, his fastball should continue to rank at an elite level.

Rodón will now be making half his starts in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium. This should be alarming, leaving the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park and moving to one of the best-hitting parks in baseball. Yankee Stadium measures 314 feet down the right field line and that is where most of the damage is done. It is a little more pitcher-friendly in the left-center field gap, which stands 399 feet from home plate.

This is where we can see some upside in Rodón's projections, as it is tough to project "stuff" translating in separate parks based on pitchers' strengths. Most projections will be based on the park alone. Rodón dominates left-hand hitting, holding them to a .179 AVG and only allowing two home runs all season last year.

Lefties only pull the ball against him at a 26.7% clip. Getting beat to the pull side of the field against lefties will be rare for Rodón, truly making him a perfect fit for this ballpark. Sure, he will give up some home runs at home, mainly to right-hand hitters driving the ball to the opposite side of the field, but the park should not limit Rodón's upside as much as we think.

The current ADP for Rodón has him as the 12th starting pitcher off the board. Both CUTTER and ATC projection systems have Rodón ranked as the 12th-best starting pitcher. It's safe to assume that he has the upside in that ADP and could finish the season in the top five at his position. Taking him anywhere as early as the seventh or eighth starting pitcher off the board is viable. Expect Carlos Rodón and the New York Yankees to have a strong 2023.

Pablo López, Minnesota Twins

Pablo López was traded to the Minnesota Twins from the Miami Marlins for Luis Arraez this offseason in one of the more exciting trades we have seen regarding fit for both sides. On paper, this deal should help both teams, and López has a chance to start on opening day for this Twins team as he will compete in Spring Training with Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray to win that role.

López had a very streaky 2022 in which he came out of the gates on fire. During his first 10 starts, López was 4-2 with a 1.83 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 26.5% K rate. In his final 13 starts after the All-Star break, López was 4-6 with a 5.48 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and a 22.3% K rate. Looking into velocities and pitch mix, López was throwing slower in the first half of the season when he was more effective. The other significant difference was the amount he was throwing his cutter, as he was throwing it at a 10% higher rate in the first 10 starts.

López throws his fastball or changeup 72% of the time. Interestingly, from 2021 to 2022, his K% dropped around seven to eight percent on both pitches. His whiff rate was one to two percent higher on each pitch. The K% dropping seems like a bit of noise, and we expect that to return to close to 25% this season, giving him upside in all fantasy formats.

Drafters hope he returns to the form he had in his first 10 starts. There is no standoffish data to suggest why his production faltered in the second half of the season. Could it have been an injury? A mechanical adjustment? Fatigue? Let's look at projections for 2023 compared to production from the last two seasons.

• 2021, 5-5, 3.07 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 115 strikeouts, 102.2 innings pitched
• 2022, 10-10, 3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 174 strikeouts, 180 innings pitched
• CUTTER 2023, 10-11, 3.66 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 170 strikeouts, 172 innings pitched
• ATC 2023, 10-9, 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 165 strikeouts, 168 innings pitched

These early 2023 projections suggest that López should be able to sustain his production in 2022. He finished last season as starting pitcher 30-40, depending on your league scoring. He is currently the 46th starting pitcher being taken off draft boards. CUTTER has López ranked 49th, as well as ATC. Projections will say that López is presently overvalued, but looking at some of the arms being taken around his ADP, López provides a floor and sense of safety in the middle round of drafts.

The most significant upgrade for López will be getting out of the NL East and into the AL Central. 76 games against the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, and Kansas City Royals is a significant upgrade compared to playing the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Washington Nationals.

It's hard to guess which version of Pablo López we will get in 2023, but at the current ADP, there are not many risks involved with scoping up a few shares.

Carlos Estévez, Los Angeles Angels

The long-time Colorado Rockie Carlos Estévez signed a two-year contract with the Los Angeles Angels this December. Estévez has been pitching out of the Rockies bullpen since his debut in 2016. His numbers will not blow anyone away, but he is a late-draft flyer who could provide some support if we don't want to spend early draft picks on relievers.

Estévez has the most experience on this Angels roster with 25 career saves, so he should get the first shot closing for this team in 2023. Jimmy Herget and Ryan Tepera will head into Spring Training just like Estévez, looking to win the ninth-inning job. Lefties Aaron Loup and José Quijada could also play spoiler to save opportunities if the Angels want to go that route and play matchups. For now, all we can do is take educated guesses until we see what unfolds in Spring Training, but it is Estévez's job to lose.

He has a career 4.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 23.6% K rate, along with his 25 saves. None of these numbers would suggest any merit for him even to be talked about in drafts, but his best two years did come in 2021 and 2022. Estévez has an upper 90s fastball that he throws 70.6% of the time and mixes in a slider and changeup. His fastball is his best pitch, but the changeup has a 27.1% whiff rate, and the slider has a 38.5% K rate. The stuff is there, so why hasn't it translated into good production?

Getting out of Coors has a tremendous impact on him, as is for most pitchers who spend most of their careers there. We have all heard what the altitude does on the baseball, so being able to move out of the ballpark that surrendered the most runs in baseball will have an immediate surge in production. We know how Coors affected Estévez in his career because we have a seven-year sample size of him with home and road splits.

Estévez has a career 5.57 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 22.5% K, and 10.6% BB at home. In 2022, he had a 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 16.8% K, and a 14.3% BB, by far his best season at home in his career. On the road, Estévez has pitched to a career 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 24.8% K, and 7.0% BB. In 2022, he had a 3.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 29.3% K, and 5.2% BB.

The base-on-ball rate is the most significant noticeable difference outside of being substantially better on the road in every major stat. In 2022, he had a 9.1% difference in his walk rate at home compared to on the road. If Estévez can figure out the command, his stuff is good enough to see a ceiling-type year for the 30-year-old out of the Dominican Republic.

His current ADP is 379, slotting him in Round 28 in 12-team leagues. Taking Estévez in your drafts this year will come with risk. We hope he wins the closing job in Los Angeles, first and foremost. We then assume his 2023 numbers will look closer to his road form in his career. We have enough data to project what we think a full year out of Denver will do for him. If that happens, his current ADP has massive value. If we get reports out of Spring Training that he will be the closer, his ADP should continue to rise, so there is no better time than now to take some shots on Carlos Estévez.

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