Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 16: Spreads, Totals, Parlays, and Teasers

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 16 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for player spreads, money lines, parlays, teasers, and game totals.

I hope you are excited about a big weekend of NFL action over the holiday weekend! We have a unique situation with most of the games on Saturday (Christmas Eve) instead of Sunday and a whole bunch of primetime games now on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday!

Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily.

Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week: 1-4
• Season ATS: 23-25
• Season O/U: 9-19
• Season Overall: 32-44

NFL Betting Picks: Spreads/MoneyLine

SEA +10 (-110 DK)

We did this last week and it worked - take a big underdog against the Chiefs. The Texans took the Chiefs to overtime last week and covered with ease and Seattle is a significantly better team than Houston.

Seattle is without Tyler Lockett, but they have talent on offense and enough firepower to move the ball and score points against KC. I don’t think they can stop the Chiefs, but I do think they can keep this to a one-score game and cover.

TEN -3 (-115)

The Titans have solid ATS this season at 8-5-1 even while losing their last four games. Ryan Tannehill is out, but Malik Willis led this team to a 17-10 win over the Texans in their first matchup by handing Derrick Henry the ball 30+ times and that’s probably what we will see happen again.

Mike Vrabel’s team never wins pretty, but their defense is good enough to contain Houston and they are going to scheme up some runs for Willis and some more ways to get Henry the ball out of the backfield or maybe even Chig Onkonwo. With their playoff hopes on the line, I expect Tennessee to get it done this week and win by a TD as Henry puts them on his back again.

PIT -2 (-110)

Rarely do I recommend a team that I root for as I tend to jinx them, but I like the Steelers quite a bit at home this week against the Raiders. They get Kenny Pickett back at QB and a really good matchup with a bad Vegas pass defense. They’ve been running the ball better with Najee Harris in the second half of the season, too.

When you add in all the Franco Harris emotions and the Immaculate Reception anniversary, you’d have to think the Steelers and their home crowd will be charged up for this one, too.

PHI +5 (-110)

The Eagles are five points worse than Dallas without Hurts? I don’t buy it! The Eagles are the better team and I have this feeling they rally around Gardner Minshew this week to pull off a big win in Dallas.

The Cowboys’ defense is trending in the wrong direction and last week’s loss to Jacksonville has to be concerning. I’m not betting on the PHI ML (well, I’m not recommending it anyway, but I still may bet it) but I think the Eagles can cover here even in a close loss. Commence Minshew Mania!

CIN -3 (-115 DK)

I’m going with my gut here as my model is trying to tell me the Patriots deserve to have this tight spread. But I can’t help but think they’re going to be more deflated than inspired this week after the terrible blunder that cost them last week’s game against the Raiders.

Cincy is rolling right now and had a massive second-half comeback against the Bucs last week to keep their streak going. This offense is so good and should present a huge challenge for the Pats’ defense. All we need is a field goal win to push, I am comfortable backing the Bengals on the road.

NFL Betting Picks: Totals

NO TOTALS THIS WEEK

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NFL Betting Picks: Teasers and Parlays

You know the rules here, more teams = more risk. Never hesitate to leave a team out of a parlay that you don’t feel good about.

3-TEAM ML FAVORITES PARLAY: BUF/SF/LAC (+139 DK)

4-TEAM 7-POINT TEASER: SEA/NO/JAX/PHI (+200 DK)

That takes the spreads to SEA +17, NO +9.5, JAX +9, and PHI +12

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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