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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 14 Thursday Night Football action! We have an...interesting matchup tonight, as the Raiders (5-7) head out to L.A. to take on the Rams (3-9). Both of these teams had high expectations coming into this season, the Rams coming off of the Super Bowl and the Raiders under new head coach Josh McDaniels. Things haven't necessarily gone their way, but the Raiders have been on the upswing of late. Let's see how our DFS lineups shake out tonight.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Raiders vs. Rams NFL DFS showdown slate on December 8th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Derek Carr - QB, $15,300 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,980 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, eight interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 10.9% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 13.8% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll be starting things off with Derek Carr tonight. Carr has been pretty good in this two-game win streak the Raiders have had, tossing for 345 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. While the three interceptions aren't a great look, it shows that Carr has been more willing to be aggressive and throw the ball into tight windows, where it seems he hadn't before. The matchup against the Rams isn't a great one, but not a horrible one either. Carr should do more than enough to take care of business tonight, and I have him projected for 271.06 yards, 1.93 touchdowns, and just 0.56 interceptions.
Josh Jacobs - RB, $18,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 242 attempts, 1,303 rushing yards, 50 targets, 42 receptions, 331 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 7.8% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -18% (5th), per Football Outsiders
I'll probably be split between the Raiders' passing and rushing attack tonight. I do think this one has blowout potential, which leads me to believe this could be a smash spot for Jacobs. Jacobs is having a quietly unbelievable season behind this Raiders offensive line that is at or among the top of all units in terms of run blocking. I have Jacobs projected for 68.55 rushing yards tonight while adding in 2.86 receptions for 22.78 receiving yards and a 65% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Captains/MVPs: Davante Adams, Mack Hollins, Raiders D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
John Wolford - QB, $8,800 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 390 passing yards, one touchdown, three interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -5.2% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 13.8% (27th), per Football Outsiders
It's a bit unclear who exactly will be starting at quarterback tonight for the Rams, but it seems as of now that it'll be John Wolford. This is probably the best-case scenario for the Rams, with Baker Mayfield just getting into the building this week and Bryce Perkins being well... Bryce Perkins. With that said though, I don't necessarily love anyone that the Rams will decide to put under center, but in a game where it seems that Las Vegas will be in control, the Rams will need something out of their QB to keep them relatively close.
Foster Moreau - TE, $6,600 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 44 targets, 25 receptions, 316 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Ernest Jones): 18% targets per route, 85% catch rate, 0.31 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Back to the Raiders, I really like Foster Moreau in this spot. The Raiders have just a -0.43% DVOA projection when targeting tight ends tonight, but in terms of individual matchup, it's a great one for Moreau against Ernest Jones. Moreau has seen an average of five targets over the last two games, and he's cheap enough that he could break the slate if he catches a touchdown pass. Despite having just two on the year, he's been seeing more looks in the red zone. I'll most likely be split 50/50 between Moreau and Mack Hollins in my Carr lineups, pairing them with Davante Adams.
Other Flex Options: Mack Hollins, Tyler Higbee
DFS Value Plays
Ben Skowronek - WR, $4,800 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 50 targets, 31 receptions, 284 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Amik Robertson): 14% targets per route, 62% catch rate, 0.31 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
In terms of Rams pass-catchers, I'll look at Ben Skowrowek tonight. Whether it's Wolford, Perkins, or Baker Mayfield, I can't imagine the Rams will look to throw the ball downfield here. While the potential threat of Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell downfield is there, I think this will do more for opening up the short passing game, which should fare well for Skowronek and Tyler Higbee. My model projects Skowronek to catch 3.14 of his 4.72 targets tonight for 32.47 yards and a 14% chance of scoring a touchdown. It's not much, but his price is cheap enough for me to toss him into my lineups as a value play.
Daniel Carlson - K, $4,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 25 field goals made, 28 field goals attempted, 25 extra points made, 26 extra points attempted.
Last but not least I'll talk about Daniel Carlson for a minute. Carlson has been one of the best kickers in the league over the last few years, and I have no problem backing him in this spot. The Rams are tied for 25th in terms of field goals allowed on the season, and 26th over the last four weeks. While he isn't on Justin Tucker's level of accuracy, he does have the leg to knock down multiple long field goals should the Rams' defense cause the Raiders' offense to stall out on a few drives.
Other Value Plays: Raiders D/ST, Matt Gay, Tutu Atwell
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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