RADIO
The aim of this article is to help familiarize ourselves with how we can expect the course to play, what kind of skillsets matter most, and who are the best players in the field in those categories. Hopefully this piece takes you straight to the lobster when searching through the buffet of golfers to throw onto your DFS plate. We have ranked the top 20 golfers for the majority of stats that should matter here this week.
I have put in many hours to understand which KFT graduates will be most successful on the PGA Tour and even wrote up the "Korn Ferry Fifty" which has a statistical profile of each KFT graduate. A lot of these golfers will be in the field this week, with the majority of them lacking trustworthy data only having played about eight rounds of PGA Tour golf. That being said, you can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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The Kitchen (Weather Conditions)
We are in Texas, where the wind blows. There is a decent chance we encounter wave advantages this week.
The Menu (Course Breakdown)
Memorial Park Golf Course: Par: 70, Yardage: 7,412 Greens: Bermuda
The Model Settings
The Model Rankings:
The Usual (Course History)
Course History:
Comp courses: Silverado Resort & Spa (North), TPC Scottsdale, Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Some guys who have played rather poorly on similar courses over the last few years.
This Week's Specials (Recent Form)
A peek at the top 20 in the four major strokes gained categories over this season. If a player does not have any rounds but has stats, he gained those strokes at a non- PGA Tour event. I have also included the number of rounds each person has played to help you determine how significant that stat should be. Less rounds = less significant.
Chefs' recommendation: Approach
Top 20 players gaining the most total strokes this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes off the tee this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes on approach this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes around the green this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes putting this season.
Let The Big Dog Eat (Driving Stats)
Any statistic that does not have a pink title is a baseline stat and is weighted 95% (2022) and 5% (2023) by season. The KFT statistics have been watered down by 15% in order to reflect the increased difficulty of the PGA Tour. We had Korn Ferry Tour graduates with much better statistics than Scottie Scheffler, which doesn't make sense, so I did my best to get them to reflect as accurately as possible.
The Driving Statistics portion of the article includes strokes gained off the tee, distance, accuracy and good drives gained.
Chefs' recommendation: Good Drives Gained % (Tough Course = Fairways and Greens)
Top 20 strokes gained off the tee (salaries seem to sync up best with this column)
Top 20 players that hit bombs
Top 20 most accurate drivers in the field
Top 20 players gaining good drives
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The Meat and Potatoes (Approach Stats)
Approach. Is. King! Strokes gained approach is the stat that has the highest correlation to strokes gained total and a good approach player provides consistent performances, usually with a relatively high floor. It is indeed the meat and potatoes of all the stats.
Chefs' Recommendation: APPROACH (general)
Top 20 in baseline strokes gained approach
Top 20 in Greens in Regulation from the fairway
Top 20 in proximity from the fairway
Top 20 in Greens in Regulation from the rough.
Top 20 in proximity from the rough
Scrambled Eggs (Around The Green)
Who likes to scramble their eggs? Who digests their fried eggs best? Lets find out.
*For those of you who noticed that Collin Morikawa has negative ARG ratings but positive metrics for all three phases of around the green play, I have a working theory as to why this is so. For one of the best iron players in the world, Collin is most likely leaving himself much closer to the hole, when around the green, making his proximity numbers seem super impressive, but from those distances he is still below average relative the rest of the field. Again, stats have flaws, and should not be treated as gospel or in a vacuum, but they do help us understand where certain golfers struggle or succeed when additional context is added.
Chefs Recommendation: FRINGE
The 20 best around the green
The 20 best from the fringe
The 20 best from the sand
The 20 best from the rough
Eat Your Greens (Putting)
Each week we visit a green surface that has specific grass. Taylor Montgomery is easily the best putter in this field right now, but we can expect his numbers to regress a little as he had an outlier putting performance at the Fortinet, gaining 10+ strokes on the green, a feat only three other golfers achieved all of last season.
Also, not enough rounds have been played on Paspalum green's so not going to include those this week.
Chefs Recommendation: Putting from 5-15 feet
The 20 best putters in the field.
Top 20 in 3 Putt Avoidance
The 20 putting on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds
Sprinkles and Syrup (Scoring Stats)
Whatever you like on your ice cream or cheesecake, throw a little extra on there with some scoring stats.
Chefs' Recommendation: Par 5 Scoring (3 Par 5s and 4 Par 4s over 290 yards)
Top 20 scorers on hard courses (where par for the top 5 was -10 or worse). This is only veteran PGA Tour players who have played multipole rounds on hard courses. KFT lacks these kinds of venues.
Top 20 scorers on medium courses (where par for the top 5 was -10 or better). This is mainly in here because there was only one hard course on the KFT.
The 20 best birdie makers.
The best at playing boring golf, avoiding bogeys.
Who gets it in the hole the fastest on par 5s?
The Fortune Cookie Filter (Above Average in Six Key Stats)
Fortune favors the brave, and these guys appear to be above average in all six key categories that were recommended by the chef.
- Good Drives Gained
- Recent Approach / Baseline Approach
- Fringe Proximity
- Hard Scoring Conditions
- Putting on Bermuda Greens
- Par 5 Scoring
Hopefully this helped you narrow down your players with ease and success.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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