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Welcome to the Week 8 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
We have another two teams on bye in Week 8, as a pair of squads with plenty of DFS star power, the Chiefs and Chargers, are off the schedule. However, there are still no shortage of solid value plays across the board. As customary, we have multiple candidates to consider at each position, including multiple site-specific selections in addition to the standard suggestions.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
PJ Walker, CAR at ATL | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $20
Walker admittedly wouldn't have been a suggestion in this space before last week's performance against the Buccaneers, but he's certainly worth a look at tournaments at these salaries in Week 8 due to a very favorable matchup. The Temple product threw for 177 yards and two touchdowns versus Tampa Bay, and he's completed 70.5 percent of his throws overall. Walker now faces a Falcons defense that was eviscerated by Joe Burrow and his pass catchers in Week 7 and that's also applied minimal pressure (11 sacks) through seven contests.
Atlanta has allowed 368.7 passing yards per game over the last three and 306.6 per contest overall. The Falcons have also given up an NFL-high 70.8 percent completion rate and 11.3 yards per completion in the last three games, and they're tied with multiple teams for third-most passing touchdowns conceded as well (13). Then, Arthur Smith's squad will also be down both cornerback A.J. Terrell (hamstring) and strong safety Jaylinn Hawkins (concussion), furthering Walker's solid case.
Davis Mills, HOU vs. TEN | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $23
Mills is another value play that carries some risk and may be best left for tournaments, but he is intriguing at his salaries in a very favorable matchup on paper. Mills has struggled with turnovers to an extent with five interceptions and four fumbles (one lost), but he's coming off throwing for a season-high 302 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Raiders in Week 7, his third multi-touchdown effort of the season. He now gets a crack at a Titans squad with some of the most drastic home/road pass defense splits in the league and that also funnels action to the air with a very effective run defense.
Tennessee is allowing an AFC-high 327.3 passing yards per road game, along with a 67.8 percent completion rate and 12.6 yards per completion in that split. Meanwhile, the Titans have allowed an NFL-low 60.7 rushing yards per road game, so even though star rookie Dameon Pierce will undoubtedly still get his share of carries, it's very possible head coach Lovie Smith is eventually forced to turn to the air a bit more than usual. It's also worth noting Tennessee has given up nine red-zone passing TDs overall, an elevated number that could bode well for Mills' fantasy production if Pierce is stonewalled near the goal line.
DK/FD-Only Special: Jared Goff, DET vs. MIA | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,300
DK-Only Special: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at DET | $6,200
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Tony Pollard, DAL vs. CHI | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $17
Ezekiel Elliott is projected to miss Sunday's game against the Bears with a knee injury, which should leave Pollard in a lead-back role in a favorable matchup versus a defense that's been susceptible to the run. Pollard is also coming off an impressive Week 7 contest where he accrued 109 total yards on 14 touches against the Lions. Pollard is averaging a career-high 5.6 yards per carry and has already taken four carries for 20 yards or more, and he's averaging over a red-zone touch per contest (10 in seven games).
The Bears have been better against the run over the last three games, but they're still surrendering 163 rushing yards per away contest, along with 4.6 RB yards per carry overall. The Cowboys' offensive line is facilitating a nearly identical 4.7 RB yards per tote, so the matchup is certainly a favorable one overall for Pollard. Factoring in Chicago also slots in the bottom half of the league in receiving yards allowed to running backs (237), and Pollard's statistical advantages extend to his passing game work as well.
Raheem Mostert, MIA at DET | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $21
Mostert has been cleared of the knee issue that limited him in Thursday's practice, and he's been managing effectively on game days recently while averaging 4.9 yards per carry and averaging 44 snaps over the last four contests. The versatile veteran encouragingly remains involved in the passing game as well and just recorded a season-high four catches in Week 7 against the Steelers, setting him up for a potential breakout effort against the porous Lions defense, which has been a sieve against the run most of the season.
Detroit is allowing an NFL-high 179.7 rushing yards per home game and 183.3 yards per game overall in the last three contests. The Lions are also conceding 5.4 RB yards per carry and is ranked No. 31 in both second-level and open-field yards allowed, which could certainly spell trouble against a back of Mostert's ability and deceptive speed. The Lions have also facilitated an NFC-high 10 red-zone rushing touchdowns, which, when combined with the fact Detroit gives up the fourth-most red-zone scoring attempts per home game (4.0), sets up very nicely for Mostert, who already has 11 RZ touches in seven games.
ALSO CONSIDER: Miles Sanders, PHI vs. PIT | DK: $6,600, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $22
DK/Yahoo-only Special: Kenneth Walker, SEA vs. NYG | DK: $6,500, Yahoo: $25
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. PIT | DK: $6,300, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $24
While there will naturally be plenty of DFS players flocking to Smith's teammate A.J. Brown, Smith requires much less investment and naturally carries plenty of home-run upside thanks to his game-breaking speed. The second-year wideout was busy over the last two games before the Week 7 bye, albeit in a shorter-area role than he's used to, bringing in 15 of 16 targets for 131 yards and a touchdown over that span while being targeted on over 26 percent of his routes in that span. Smith now faces a Steelers defense that's been vulnerable to the deep ball at times, and that just gave up plenty of production to the Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle duo Sunday night.
Pittsburgh has given up 299.3 passing yards per road game, as well as 12.3 yards per completion. The Steelers have also surrendered nine red-zone passing touchdowns, while Smith's four red-zone targets through six games are already halfway to his rookie-season total, which he took 17 contests to accrue. When also considering the Steelers are yielding 4.0 red-zone scoring attempts per road game -- tied for third most -- and the fifth-highest yards per play in that split as well (6.2), Smith's case is made all the more convincingly.
Chris Olave, NO vs. LVR | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $22
Olave is another fleet-footed value play that has plenty of talent to overdeliver on his salaries, and he'll take the field with Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) already confirmed for Week 8 absences. The rookie thrived while shouldering a heavy workload in Week 7 against the Cardinals, producing a 7-106 line on 14 targets, and he'd scored a touchdown apiece in his previous two games as well. With the quarterback he's shown plenty of rapport with already, Andy Dalton, under center again in Week 8, Olave should be heavily involved versus a Raiders team that gives up its fair share of production through the air.
Las Vegas' 265.3 passing yards per road contest allowed is accompanied by a 71.2 percent completion rate surrendered per road contest as well. What's more, the Raiders are tied with several teams for third-most passing touchdowns yielded (13), 11 which have come in the red zone. No team has allowed a higher red-zone TD scoring percentage on the road than Las Vegas and its 90 percent figure, while Olave has five red-zone targets in six games, has been targeted on 28.0 percent of his routes and is averaging over 151 air yards per game, affording him considerable upside as a downfield threat.
DJ Moore, CAR at ATL | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $17
Moore could be one of the beneficiaries of the vulnerabilities of the Falcons' pass defense that were already enumerated in Walker's entry, and the talented wideout is coming off a Week 7 win over the Buccaneers where he demonstrated plenty of chemistry with his quarterback. Moore generated a 7-69-1 line on 10 targets in that contest, and he has a good chance of avoiding cornerback A.J. Terrell (hamstring) in addition to strong safety Jaylinn Hawkins, who's already been ruled out due to a concussion.
Moore has obviously been hamstrung by the Panthers' sub-standard quarterback play overall, but if Walker's strong play in Week 7 is an indicator of legitimate improvement on his part, this could be a value play that pays off handsomely. The fifth-year vet still carries plenty of upside, and in addition to Atlanta's poor metrics against the pass already cited in Walker's entry, it's also worth noting the Falcons have given up 10 passing touchdowns in the red zone and an NFL-high 40.4 yards per drive, additional numbers that paint an appealing picture for Moore if Walker can stay in rhythm.
ALSO CONSIDER: Alec Pierce, IND vs. WAS | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $17
Tight End DFS Value Plays
T.J. Hockenson, DET vs. MIA | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $21
The Lions' offense has scored all of six points in the last two games, but Detroit returns to the offense-friendly confines of Ford Field in Week 8. Hockenson is dealing with a knee injury that saw him limited in practice Thursday (UPDATE: he's free of any designation on the final injury report), but he's trending upward while Amon-Ra St. Brown (concussion) and Josh Reynolds (ankle) are also carrying a bit of uncertainty with respect to their availability. Even if his teammates suit up, Hockenson draws a matchup against one of the most generous defenses in the league against tight ends, putting him firmly in play.
The Dolphins have yielded a 47-393-3 line to tight ends on 56 targets overall, with the receptions qualifying as the third most allowed in the NFL. Hockenson is averaging just under seven targets per game, and his 8.1 yards per target and 13.7 yards per reception are both career-high figures. In a game that has a projected total north of 50 points and on a field where Detroit's passing attack has come to life on multiple occasions this season, Hockenson makes for a very viable value play to take a flyer on at a position that can be difficult to effectively roster.
Irv Smith Jr., MIN vs. ARI | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $15
Smith can be had for next to nothing on all three sites, and he's also going to be locked into a very favorable positional matchup that could allow him to overdeliver on his modest salaries. The fourth-year pro has also had the benefit of a Week 7 bye to rest up, and he went into his off week having put together back-to-back four-catch efforts. Arizona has funneled plenty of action toward tight ends – the most in the league, in fact – which could allow Smith to get a bit more of Kirk Cousins' attention than usual.
Arizona has surrendered an NFL-high 51 receptions, 539 receiving yards and six receiving TDs to tight ends, and 11 red-zone receiving TDs as well. The Cardinals do have impressive numbers against the pass on the road overall, but the vulnerability to Smith's position has been pervasive regardless of game setting and Smith's salaries make him a very low-risk option despite his typically modest yardage totals.
ALSO CONSIDER: Tommy Tremble, CAR at ATL | DK: $2,600, FD: $4,700, Yahoo: $10
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