Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 5: Spreads, Totals, Parlays, and Teasers

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 5 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for player spreads, money lines, parlays, teasers, and game totals.

Another week of NFL football is upon us as we welcome back Thursday Night Football tonight. As the owner of both Melvin Gordon III and Nyheim Hines, I have more interest in this game than many, but if you're a true football fan, you're probably just happy to be watching a game again. I have a wager for tonight's contest and the rest of my week five game totals or sides for you today.

Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week five of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Against the Spread: 6-12
• O/U: 3-7
• Overall: 9-19

NFL Betting Picks: Spreads

Here’s where I am at so far this week. All spread and total bets are one unit each. A few less bets this week, but we are going to hit at a higher rate!

SEA +5.5 (-110 DK)

Listen, I think the Seahawks might be a decent NFL football team. Yes, the Lions were down some guys last week, but they are still a pretty good team and Seattle hung with them punch for punch until finally putting them away.

This Seattle offense is clicking with Geno Smith making smart throws to his two elite WR and scrambling a bit when he has to. Their defense is very suspect, but they’re facing a Saints team that could be missing some of their top offensive players again this week. There’s no reason Seattle can’t win this game outright, and the fact that New Orleans is such a big favorite here, even at home, makes very little sense to me.

NYG +8 (-110 DK)

We are rolling with two underdogs this week! The G-men head to London to play the Packers in the early morning game on Sunday. The Packers are technically the home team, but there’s little advantage for them here compared to the friendly confines of Lambeau so right away I am rolling 3 points off this spread since they don’t have any actual home-field advantage.

This spread opened at 6.5 and moved to 8 rather quickly as the public is on Green Bay. People love betting on the Packers and the perception is still that they are an elite team, while New York is a doormat. BOTH THESE TEAMS ARE 3-1, am I missing something?

I continue to be unimpressed with Green Bay. Yes, they have reeled off three wins in a row, but against the Bears, a wounded Tampa team, and then barely beat a pretty mediocre Patriots team. Sure, their defense is solid, but they can be had in the running game and the Giants have one of the best backs in the league with Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones seems to be trending towards playing, which is a good sign and as long as he’s under center I like the Giants to compete in this one and be right there at the end of the game with a chance to win.

NFL Betting Picks: Totals

IND-DEN under 42 (-110 DK)

Let’s start with tonight’s game, shall we? Both teams have been muddling along this season and underperforming on offense. And now both of them won’t have their lead running back in this game either. That’s a slightly bigger deal for Indy, who has a bit of an identity crisis without Jonathan Taylor but don’t underestimate how valuable Javonte Williams was to Denver either. At least Taylor will return at some point for the Colts, while Williams has been lost for the season.

Anyway, my model has this game going WAY under and the public seems to be agreeing with us as nearly 80% of the bets have come in on the under and it’s moved a full 1.5 points since opening. I feel strongly about the under here, as both teams are not built to score quickly and both defenses have been relatively good this year. Neither offensive line rates well against the opposing defense here and Indy actually has the second-worst DVOA match-up of any team this week.

DET-NE over 45.5 (-110 DK)

We go from an under to an over and while last week’s shoot-out in Detroit has certainly skewed my projections a bit, I still feel pretty comfy going over in this game as New England’s defense has not been all that impressive either.

Once again, we are with the public here but not as drastically as the over has drawn 68% of the action, and the total increased by 1.5 points. The Patriots have the best rushing matchup on the board and my only concern for this total would be that they run it too much. But we saw Seattle break off big gainers in the running game and passing game last week with Geno Smith and Rashaad Penny, so I think this New England offense can certainly score their fair share this week too.

And for the Lions’ offense, they should get Amon-Ra St. Brown back in the lineup and likely D.J. Chark too. Jared Goff has been great and Jamaal Williams will pound the rock at this New England front seven effectively too.

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NFL Betting Picks: Teasers and Parlays

I have a couple of really fun parlays this week, and with fewer overall bets, I am upping them to a full unit each. I talked on the podcast this week about how to build teasers and we don’t want to cross the money line, but often reduce a heavy favorite to under -3 and boost a slight underdog to over +7, which is what I did in the main teaser build.

ML FAVORITES PARLAY: MIN/PHI/BUF/TB/SF (+257 DK)

Who is losing there, honestly? I try to keep these to 3-4 teams, but adding the Bills and Bucs really sweetens up the odds nicely for us.

6.5 TEASER: NYG/DET/MIN/TB/SF (+350 DK)

That takes the spreads to NYG +14.5, DET +9, MIN -.5, TB -2.5, and SF -0.

Our favorites simply need to win outright with Tampa covering by a field goal, while we give the Giants a two-touchdown cushion and Detroit a touchdown plus.

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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