Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Shriners Children's Open

Sepp Straka has been lucky enough to be the first to congratulate both Will Zalatoris and Mackenzie Hughes after their playoff victories ... against him. But, he seems to be playing much better golf lately and it will not be surprising to see him win another event this year.

We still only have two events worth of data for about a third of the field (KFT graduates) which makes it tough to make placement bets with confidence. However, with change comes opportunity and I wrote an article reviewing all of the "Korn Ferry Fifty" which I will be leaning on in my DFS player pool.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

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Course Breakdown and Key Stats

TPC Summerlin: Par: 71, Yardage: 7,255, Greens: Bent Designer: Fuzzy Zoeller & Bobby Weed

Before we could spell out Mississippi we have jumped back to the west coast, teeing it up in Las Vegas this week. TPC Summerlin has seen ridiculously low scores win this event before, with Sungjae Im blitzing the field last year at -24.

Approach play and putting will go a long way to securing victory. We still don't have enough stats on all the new KFT players to run the model with proximity ratings and stats that are only available on the PGA Tour. It will be the best of times if we can get strokes gained metrics from KFT players one day.

That being said, in order to understand how the field will shake out this week, we have wound the clock backwards and derived some power rankings using a few old school metrics. Driving accuracy, distance, good drives gained, GIR%, putting average, 3 putt avoidance, par 5 scoring and scoring on easy courses are all metrics shared across both tours.

Below are the settings for the model:

 

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. We have ourselves five golfers and $13 invested in the outright market and they are all in the 25-80 range. All five golfers find themselves inside the top-15 of strokes gained total over the last 24 rounds.

 

Joohyung "Tom" Kim ($4.75 @ +2500 on BetMGM)

Already a winner on tour and the star of the International Team at the Presidents Cup, Tom "The Tank" Kim looks to keep steaming ahead with little regard for anybody who gets in his way of glory. After some time away from the PGA Tour, he will be playing his first PGA event of the season, having won just three starts ago. If he plays with the confidence he brought to the Presidents Cup, we are in store for some tremendous golf.

 

Taylor Pendrith ($2.42 @ +5000 on DraftKings)

We are using the Fortinet photoshop of Taylor Pendrith as we had high hopes for him at that venue prior to the Presidents Cup, but he let us down there. However, he seemed to show some fight at The Cup which may give him the confidence he needs to win a PGA Tour event. He thrives inside 150 yards and with his length off the tee, he should find himself driving and thriving himself to victory.

Emiliano Grillo ($2.43 @ +5000 on DraftKings)

Emiliano Grillo was leading last week's golf tournament until he triple-bogeyed a Par 5 and broke our hearts and what feels like every figurative bone in our collective body. However, his irons were exceptional, and his putter continues to roll in the multitude of birdie opportunities his ball-striking affords him. After an impressive week with one bad hole, we get even better odds on our guy this week and we believe he can secure the W!

Dean Burmester ($1.53 @ +6500 on DraftKings)

Dean Burmester will be playing his first full season on the PGA Tour and is off to an amazing start with a solo fourth at last week's Sanderson Farms. He plays well on easy courses and should continue to score well at this week's venue, which should be even easier conditions. If Casino Deano does what he does best, he should stand a fantastic chance to hit the jackpot on Sunday!

Mark Hubbard ($1.53 @ +8000 on DraftKings)

Mark "Homeless Hubbs" Hubbard lead the Sanderson Farms field in strokes gained approach. After 24 hours of market activity, his opening 90-1 price tag has fallen a smidge to 80-1, which is still a lovely number for someone playing as well as he is. He was in the final group of a PGA Tour event on Sunday afternoon, and nerves seemed to have got the better of him. If he plays just well enough to avoid the final group, he has the firepower to overcome a 1 or 2 shot lead on the back nine this Sunday.

 

 

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Placings

Until we gather enough data from the KFT graduates, we are going to limit our exposure in this market for a little while. It has been a mega-profitable portion of Breaking $100 and we want to keep it that way. That being said, there are a few decent odds on some golfers in the top-20 market, most of which are on our outright card.

Last week we cherry picked our placing bets, going 2-2 with Detry and Putnam finishing inside the top-20 and top-40 respectively.

• Thomas Detry (T20: $10 @ +250 on FanDuel): T9 $25
• Andrew Putnam (T40: $10 @ +155 on FanDuel): T30 $15.5

Thomas Detry (T20: $10 @ +200 on DraftKings)

Detry showed that he has the all-around game to keep himself inside the top-20 even after relinquishing his lead on Saturday. We can expect a similar performance from the Belgian this week again at 2-1 odds.

Emilian Grillo (T20: $10 @ +200 on DraftKings)

Taylor Pendrith (T20: $10 @ +200 on DraftKings)

Mark Hubabrd  (T20: $10 @ +300 on DraftKings)

For all three of the above golfers, who are on our outright card, we like to see that their ball striking is what does most of their scoring. When the putter shows up for any one of these three, they should be contending for the lead. If it doesn't, their floor is high enough to still place inside the top 20.

Matchups

The first of two new pieces to feature in this article is my favorite golf bet to make and I am confused as to why I did not include any matchups in the article from the very beginning. I love these bets so much because outside of the juice you pay on the betting odds, you are not really betting against the book, but instead, betting against the opponent in the matchup, making this the safest of golf bets, in my opinion.

Let me explain why this is such a safe and profitable bet. If you place a T20 bet and that player withdraws, you lose. Similarly, if you place a matchup bet and he withdraws, you lose. BUT, if you place a matchup bet and your opponent withdraws, YOU WIN! The fairest of golf betting playing fields. It also provides you with opportunities to fade players you feel are overpriced, by placing bets against them in matchups with a player we think has a significant edge over "Mr. Overrated."

We are going to be placing our bets in such a way that we return $10 in profit. Typically, we don't like to place golf bets that have negative odds, but for matchups, we are completely fine drinking the juice as we still think we have an edge. Think of it as football odds. Now, let's dive into these!

Last week we went 2-2, with Keegan Bradley (t6) going -10 over the weekend to beat Scott Stallings (t13) and Taylor Montgomery (t9). Stallings was one of two peeople who finished inside the top 30 to shoot over par on Sunday. Not ideal Scott.

• Emiliano Grillo over Adam Hadwin ($14.30 @ -143 on FanDuel): $10
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout over Adam Hadwin ($11.40 @ -114 on BetRivers): $10
• Taylor Montgomery over Keegan Bradley ($13 @ -130 on DraftKings): -$13
• Scott Stallings over Keegan Bradley ($11.40 @ -114 on BetRivers): -$11.40

Taylor Pendrith over Alex Noren ($11 @ -110 on DraftKings)

This week we only have one matchup, and we anticipate Taylor Pendrith to contend this week, while Alex Noren continues to struggle to perform on the PGA Tour, regardless of how well he seems to play in Europe. He is also teeing it up on the west coast of the USA after playing in Scotland last week.

A Look Into The Future

With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.

The Masters

Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)

If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.

His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.

 

The Farewell Fiver

Taylor Montgomery (T10: $5 @ +330 on DraftKings)

With back-to-back top-10s in his last two PGA Tour starts, we missed the nice outright numbers on him but will take another T10 from the KFT star at +330.

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

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