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Thunder Dan Palyo analyzes the hot starts of three WR who could be league winners at their ADP - Christian Kirk, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Rashod Bateman.
The first two weeks of this NFL season have been nothing short of spectacular. We've had some incredible finishes, big upsets, and some darn impressive fantasy performances already.
Whether your team is off to a hot start at 2-0 or has been slow out of the gates at 0-2, there's plenty of football left to be played so it's best not to overreact too much and celebrate (or admit defeat) too early. As an analyst, there's always a temptation to take an early victory lap when a guy you touted is crushing it, but it's rarely a good decision as it's not in good taste and just feels like an invitation for some bad karma to come your way via injury.
If you're someone who drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Kirk, or Rashod Bateman in the middle rounds of your draft, you have every right to be gloating a bit. The fantasy community was pretty split on how these receivers would fare this year, but after two weeks this trio of pass-catchers likely have you positioned for a strong finish in your league if you happen to have one or more of them on your rosters. Can these guys sustain this success or should you consider selling on high on their hot starts?
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The Sun God Shines Brightly
There's an argument to be made that Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL through the first two weeks. I thought he'd be good again this year, and so did plenty of other analysts. But I don't think anyone predicted a 17-180-3 start for him through two games. Oh, and he added another 68 yards rushing last week on two carries, too. Here are all of his Week 2 touches, compiled very nicely by fellow RotoBaller Kyle Lindemann.
All of Amon-Ra St. Brown's touches from Week 2.
He is making many analysts including myself look silly for ranking him outside the top 20.
The Sun God should now be viewed as a WR1 every week. Good times are ahead for the Lions in Motown. pic.twitter.com/iav80YLgQv
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) September 20, 2022
He did a little of everything for Detroit in their win against Washington, and it's clear from watching those highlights that this coaching staff wants to scheme him the ball and that his QB trusts him enough to throw it to him in some tight windows (both TDs were into tight coverage).
He made some big plays in that Washington game, but plenty of boring little dink and dunk receptions, too. Guess what? We love those for fantasy value in PPR formats! The receptions floor is awesome and it's a great sign that he's been so heavily targeted (24 so far, good for 5th most in the NFL). There was some speculation that his production in the final six games of 2021 (8.5 catches on 11 targets, for an average of 93 yards per game and 5 touchdowns) was not sustainable with the Lions' other weapons healthy, but clearly, it is.
If you drafted the Sun God anywhere near his ADP of WR22, there might be a temptation to sell high on him considering he's the overall WR2 after two weeks, but I would implore you not to do that. I think his role in this offense is going to continue to be substantial and this offense looks pretty darn good, especially when you consider what they did against the Eagles in Week 1 - the same Eagles team that stifled a very good Minnesota team on MNF.
His 33.8% target share is good for third-best in the NFL! This kid is really talented. He has great hands, is good after the catch, and has shown enough playmaking ability that it would make absolutely no sense for Detroit to do anything other than continue to feed him targets and touches.
Christian Kirk: Alpha Dog
It's been one heck of a start for Christian Kirk in Jacksonville. The Jags made upgrading their receiving corps a priority in the offseason and gave Kirk a whole bunch of money to come to Florida. So far, Kirk has shown a great rapport with Trevor Lawrence and is leading the Jaguars in targets, receptions, and yards. Only James Robinson (3) has more touchdowns than Kirk (2). He found paydirt twice last week in the Jags' upset of the Colts.
Trevor Lawrence to Christian Kirk!
Lawrence goes 8-for-8 on the TD drive 🔥
📺: #INDvsJAX on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/9Dbwnh03KL pic.twitter.com/QE13WpMfZQ— NFL (@NFL) September 18, 2022
Kirk's strong start has him currently as the WR7 through two games. That's pretty incredible for a guy whose ADP was WR40! While the touchdowns might not be entirely sustainable, the catches and yardage certainly are in my opinion. Instead of using Kirk as the downfield threat (as he was used in Arizona quite a bit), Doug Pederson has found ways to get him the ball in the short and intermediate passing game. This nifty little play design ended up with Kirk getting an easy short score.
Love seeing the unique and different ways Doug Pederson is using the offense, Trevor Lawrence, and Christian Kirk. Fake sweep and they bring Kirk back along the formation essentially forming an offensive 2 on 1 and an easy TD for the offense pic.twitter.com/wbqFeUeQF4
— Daniel Harms🏈 (@InHarmsWay19) September 21, 2022
Getting Kirk the ball and letting him run after the catch is utilizing him in the best possible way. Doug Pederson understands that. His 26.5% target share is exactly what we are looking for and we could even see that go up as the season goes along as Lawrence could look his way more often or Pederson simply schemes him the ball more. The Jags have some winnable games on the schedule and some good match-ups coming up. I really think Kirk has some more big games coming.
If you aren’t ranking:
ARSB as a Top 10 WR
Christian Kirk as a Top 20 WR
For the Rest of the Season…You’re doing it wrong…Very very wrong.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) September 19, 2022
I have to agree with Derek here, if you're selling high on Kirk or St. Brown (I wouldn't sell either), you better be getting an elite fantasy asset in return. These dudes are legit and their futures are bright with their teams, both of whom are looking like they're no longer NFL doormats.
Big Play Bateman
If there's one guy to be just a little skeptical about, maybe it's Bateman. The second-year receiver finds himself atop the depth chart now in Baltimore after the departure of Hollywood Brown. Lamar Jackson's favorite target is still likely going to be tight end Mark Andrews, but the only other receiver who's been getting many looks so far other than Bateman is Devin Duvernay.
Despite only having six catches through two games, Rashod Bateman is the WR10 in full PPR scoring! He was drafted at an ADP of WR33, returning excellent value for those who grabbed him in the middle rounds already. He's getting it done with big plays so far, not volume. In week one, it was a long bomb from Jackson on a vertical route that got him on the scoreboard.
Touchdown No. 3 on the day for Lamar Jackson!
Rashod Bateman gets on the board with a 55-yard score💥 pic.twitter.com/YXgtdswMCF
— PFF BAL Ravens (@PFF_Ravens) September 11, 2022
And last week it was a simple little slant route that Bateman took to the house, showing off some big-time speed as he left Miami defenders in the dust.
It’s Rashod Bateman SZN 🔥 75-yard touchdown pic.twitter.com/WQKEHI47Hr
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) September 18, 2022
So this begs the question, can Bateman keep up this torrid pace without long TD receptions? Maybe not, but I'd be willing to hang onto him for now and find out. Lamar Jackson throws a nice long ball and the deep ball is an important aspect of this Baltimore offense that usually does a good job of setting up those routes by running the ball well. Lamar's ability to scramble and extend plays also lends itself well to big passing plays and I suspect we aren't done seeing some big chunk plays from Bateman.
And it's not as if Bateman won't see his role and targets increase as the season goes along. He has been targeted six times per game so far, and when the Ravens get into the meat of their schedule, they're simply going to have to throw the ball more as they face better defenses and end up having more game scripts that force them into pass-heavy situations.
So while Bateman (and all of these wideouts to some extent) is overachieving, he could regress a bit in fantasy scoring and still end up a major value for you compared to where you drafted him.
To summarize, hold steady on these hot starts and avoid the temptation to sell high! These young receivers can play and it's very likely we see them finish the season well ahead of their ADP, making them potential league-winning picks!
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