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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, September 17, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 70-70-2, -16.42 units
- Sides: 33-34-1, -12.53 units
- Totals: 35-35-1, -5.59 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Tigers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: DET +130
CWS: Johnny Cueto | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez
We finished 1-1 yesterday, with White Sox starter Lucas Giolito getting the first two outs in the bottom of the first before surrendering a single, walk, and RBI single from Spencer Torkelson to ruin the sweep. We'll go back to that matchup this afternoon, but not for a first-inning under.
We'll be backing Johnny Cueto (7-8, 3.09 ERA) this afternoon. Cueto has been solid for the White Sox this season but has been a bit "lucky," allowing a 30.2% hard contact rate and coming into this one with a 4.43 xFIP. He should be able to keep the Tigers lineup under wraps though, as I have Detroit projected for just a wOBA + ISO of .394 and 26.1% hard contact rate. It won't be out of the ordinary for Cueto to do so, as he threw eight scoreless against the Tigers back on July 9.
The Tigers will be sending Eduardo Rodriguez (3-5, 4.50 ERA). As with most of the Tigers' signings this offseason, E-Rod hasn't really had the season Detroit planned. He's allowing 31.7% hard contact and has a 4.59 xFIP. My model has the White Sox offense taking it to Rodriguez today, with a projected .572 wOBA + ISO and a 37.23% hard contact rate. It's just his second start against the Sox this year, who touched him up for three runs in four innings back on April 8.
While FanDuel Sportsbook has the White Sox at -154, my model gives them a "true" line of -185 in this one. We'll back the model here and hope that the back-end of the Sox bullpen is able to close the door after Liam Hendricks took the loss last night.
Pick: White Sox Money Line (-154) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: ARI -108
SD: Joe Musgrove | ARI: Zac Gallen
We have an awesome pitching matchup as the Padres look to follow up on their 12-3 thrashing of the Diamondbacks last night. We won't be picking a side here but will go back to the first-inning under. The Padres will be sending Joe Musgrove (9-7, 3.28 ERA) to the mound. He's been great in the first inning this season, holding opponents scoreless in 11 of 13 starts on the road as well as 21 of 26 starts overall.
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks will be sending Zac Gallen (12-2, 2.50 ERA) to the mound. We may look back and see that Gallen's short injury stints (as well as Sandy Alcantara's excellent season) held Gallen from winning a Cy Young this season, but boy has he been good. He's been good in the first as well, holding opponents scoreless in 12 of 14 home starts and in 23 of 27 starts overall.
The Padres have been held scoreless in 79.7% of games on the road as well as 76.9% of games overall. They've had a lot of trouble putting up early runs lately, scoring in the first last night for the first time in 15 games. The Diamondbacks have been decent in the first at home, being held scoreless in just 69.4% of games at Chase Field, and in 74.3% of games overall, as well as eight of their last ten.
With the total sitting at just 7, it's expected that the first inning under would have a bit of juice. It's not so bad, currently at -142 on FanDuel Sportsbook. My model has the "true" line at -200. Let's sit back, relax, and enjoy the pitching duel.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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