RADIO
The Scottish Open was another episode of Runaway Bride, starring former bridesmaid, Xander Schauffele, winning his second tournament in as many starts. The flood gates appear to be open and confidence, poise, and bottled-up talent seems to be gushing through the streets of St. Andrews as he eyes his first major and third consecutive win.
This has a very similar feeling to when we did the Masters writeup and Scottie Scheffler had just rattled off three wins entering the first major of the year. Xander also has three wins on the season, with one of them coming in a team event, but the trophy cabinet has three new tenants, and he stands a fantastic chance to add a fourth.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Course Breakdown and Key Stats
St. Andrews Links (Old Course), Par: 70, Yardage: 7,189, Greens: Fescue/Bent/Poa annua, Designer: Est. 1552
We return to St. Andrews after the 2015 Open and as this course is a regular part of The Open rotation, we have a reasonable understanding of what to expect here. With the course designed almost half a millennia ago, the modern technology of the game has proven tough for St. Andrews to fight off, but any sort of strong wind puts Mike Tyson in the corner of St. Andrews, which, unfortunately does not appear to be the case as of Tuesday morning.
Reports from the venue predict a very dry, very hard golf course. This exacerbates the volatility of the many mounds, bumps, and slopes that golfers will have to navigate. Driving distance will not be a necessity, but with elite length off the tee, a lot of fairway bunkers are simply not a factor. With the course playing shorter, wedges will be in the hands of the majority of golf shots, making proximity numbers inside of 150 yards more important this week.
With massive greens putting an emphasis on three-putt avoidance, golfers will almost certainly find themself with a putt that flirts with 100 feet in length at some point this week. If an errant shot does miss the green, pot bunkers and slopes will require creativity and a deft touch around the greens, with a putter often being the club of choice from off the green. This is another reason why three-putt avoidance is a key stat this week. If winds remain calm over the duration of the week, birdie makers will frequent the top of the leaderboard.
Below are the settings for the model:
- We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 64% 2022 stats and 36% 2021 stats.
- Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (70%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (10%), course history (10%).
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.
Xander Schauffele ($1.53 @ +1600 on PointsBet)
Xander Schauffele enters the week playing the best golf of his life and with so many appetizing studs at the top of the board, his momentum and incredible recent form was ultimately what guided us to the "Scotty at the Masters" decision. Xander is also an incredible course fit, with ample distance off the tee, sensational wedge play, and an incredible short game that is headlined by one of the best three putt avoidance rates on tour. Everything about his game sets up for this golf course and we are putting our chips on the hottest golfer on tour right now, at a price that seems extremely reasonable.
Cameron Smith ($4.09 @ +2800 on DraftKings (18% boost = +3300))
To quote his writeup from last week, "On a course where off the tee mishaps are seemingly punished much less than usual, you play Cameron Smith. The rest of his game is simply exceptional and is hopefully the perfect fit for..." St. Andrews, "where he can lean on his immaculate iron play, world class short game, and elite birdie or better percentage". His irons have cooled off over the last few rounds, but he has been striking them well enough, for long enough, that a bounce back in that department will not come as a surprise. What gives us even more belief that his irons will return to form is the fact that he is one of the best wedge players in the world, which we should see a lot of this week. If the wind remains calm and birdies start flying around the Old Course, hopefully Smith's wispy mullet doesn't get in the way of too many photos of him and the Claret Jug.
Keegan Bradley ($1.53 @ +12500 on BetRivers)
Bradley had an abysmal time at the Scottish last week, and it was mostly due to his putting, which has seen some regression in the last few rounds. However, his iron play has been sensational recently, leading the field in approach over the last 12 rounds, which should give Keegan ample opportunities to sink a lot of birdie putts while keeping himself out of trouble from tee to green. At 125-1 Bradley is one of the most mis-priced golfers in this field, as he is also inside the top-10 in three putt avoidance, which is going to be an essential skill on these massive greens. If his putting bounces back and his irons continue to sizzle, 125-1 seems like the perfect sprinkle on a golfer who should probably find himself closer to 50-1 on this course.
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First-Round Leaders
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12 on four guys to net $110 or more. The below image are all the golfers who average more than two strokes in round one this year.
Xander Schauffele ($4.50 @ +2800 on Caesars)
Cameron Smith ($3.25 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
Joaquin Niemann ($1.50 @ +6000 on PointsBet)
Keegan Bradley got the boot from the First Round Leader card. If he wins this thing it will be by stringing together four solid rounds. Joaquin Niemann, on the other hand, leads the field in round one scoring, averaging +3.33 strokes gained on the field in round one this year. Getting one of the best round-one scorers on tour at 60-1 is an opportunity that seems tough to pass up.
Will Zalatoris ($2.75 @ +4500 on DraftKings)
Will Zalatoris does his best putting early in the tournament and has the length and ball striking ability to lead round one in yet another major.
Placings
At the time of writing this article BetMGM had no placing bets available, although I had seen them at some point this week. Please use a book that pays ties in full, as long as the odds are within 30 points of what we have below. We have 10 placing bets this week, with seven of them in the top-40 market.
Justin Thomas (T20: $7 @ +115 on FanDuel)
Cameron Smith (T20: $7 @ +150 on FanDuel)
Sam Burns (T20: $7 @ +220 on FanDuel)
Talor Gooch (T40: $7 @ +160 on FanDuel)
Kevin Na (T40: $7 @ +280 on FanDuel)
Seamus Power (T40: $7 @ +105 on FanDuel)
Cameron Tringale (T40: $7 @ +185 on FanDuel)
Keegan Bradley (T40: $7 @ +140 on FanDuel)
Webb Simpson (T40: $7 @ +185 on FanDuel)
Emilliano Grillo (T40: $7 @ +280 on FanDuel)
The Farewell Fiver
Rory McIlroy (T5: $5 @ +270 on FanDuel)
A major plus Rory McIlroy equals a top 5. He has two top fives in his three majors this year, with the third being an eighth-place finish.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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