Overvalued Wide Receivers With Bust Potential - Fantasy Football Draft Avoids

John breaks downs five wide receivers to avoid in fantasy football drafts for 2025. Some of his busts include Zay Flowers, DJ Moore, DK Metcalf, and more.

The wide receiver position is arguably the most important of all in PPR fantasy football leagues. While the highest tier of workhorse running backs who get significant usage in the passing game can be the single most important players in fantasy, there is a larger volume of receivers with scoring bolstered by catches.

So, whiffing on your draft picks and selecting WRs that struggle to consistently put up big numbers isn't something you want to do. Invariably, drafting in fantasy is like walking through a minefield to pick up bundles of cash -- things can pay off if you draft the right player, but some players can be a massive detriment to your team.

There are five particular receivers that we'll discuss today that have the potential to ruin your fantasy teams, or at minimum, make it very difficult to make it to the playoffs and win a championship. So let's dive into five must-avoids at receiver in fantasy football drafts for 2025!

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

I don't necessarily have issues with Flowers as a player overall. He's a clear top-2 receiver on his team and a sound route runner and separator, with juice after the catch. Those things have developed his game nicely in his first two seasons as a pro.

There are two major issues I have with his potential to produce, though. The first is his absolute unreliability in the red zone, which translates to low touchdown production and an abysmally low share of the team's receiving touchdowns.

ZAY FLOWERS HIT THE MOVES ON THIS 53-YARD TD 🔥💐

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/G1ZcvXpAW1

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 3, 2024

You can see his separation and run-after-catch potential in the above clip. But he's a 5-foot-9 receiver on a team with three big tight ends -- Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Charlie Kolar -- who all see receiving usage. The team's other top WR, Rashod Bateman, is 6-foot-1 and also has impressive separation metrics.

The team also has running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Lamar Jackson leading the show. They combine to create one of the best QB/RB rushing duos in the league. Both are likely bound for the Hall of Fame for their rushing numbers. Thus, it's understandable why the Ravens ran the ball at such a high rate in 2024.

Credit @RyanJ_Heath for his excellent article on WR Separation, which I will link below.

But Zay Flowers' upside is so, so low in games where the Ravens build leads and maintain them. This low pass rate led to games of Lamar Jackson throwing 15 and 18 times. Ick pic.twitter.com/TITprLumbm

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) September 1, 2025

In Week 3 and Week 4, Jackson threw 15 and 18 passes, respectively. Flowers scored 5.3 and two PPR fantasy points in those two weeks. These could always come out of nowhere if you draft Flowers, and heavily contribute to you losing your fantasy matchup.

Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken knows it's much safer to run the ball as much as possible. It leads to fewer turnovers, and receivers dropping passes can't affect those plays. This combination of factors makes Flowers an avoid for me at his ADP outside of best ball leagues.

D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears

Moore and Odunze were seen as potential breakout candidates after the Bears hired revered offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to be their next head coach. Fantasy managers holding either or both in dynasty leagues should have been crushed after the 2025 NFL Draft.

The first two picks of Johnson's tenure as head coach were tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III. These picks make a ton of sense to me, though. Bears starting QB Caleb Williams was the least accurate quarterback on deep downfield throws in the NFL last season, and the tape is damning.

Caleb Williams delivered a 38% catchable ball rate on throws of 20+ air yards without pressure in 2024.

QB32 out of 33 qualifiers

(Source: @FantasyPtsData) https://t.co/ANSaWMFPBh pic.twitter.com/vOuMbBrDTA

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 19, 2025

Even on plays with zero pressure, he was one of the league's worst downfield passers. Loveland and Burden are the best possible solutions to fix that problem if Williams doesn't make an unexpected and massive leap in accuracy. Quarterbacks rarely do. It's incredibly difficult to fix.

Loveland is a 6-foot-6 tight end with elite separation skills for his size and an absolutely gargantuan catch radius. Loveland's massive frame and long arms allow him to haul in inaccurate passes better than most other players in the league. In the intermediate areas of the field, he could feast on heavy target volume. Loveland will earn plenty of targets due to this feature of his game. He's also great after the catch.

I noted Colston Loveland's absurd catch radius back in March. It's a perfect fit for Caleb Williams' accuracy issues. Loveland is the ideal target in the intermediate areas of the field on the Bears offense. pic.twitter.com/fspXtKcwew

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) September 1, 2025

Additionally, Burden was clearly the best yards-after-catch threat of all pass-catchers in the 2025 NFL Draft. He can help Johnson craft a more short-pass heavy offense, focusing on getting receivers in space.

Bears rookie WR Luther Burden III getting his number called a good amount tonight 👏 pic.twitter.com/jYV73ptwHo

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) August 18, 2025

The third play here, in particular, highlights the type of slam-dunk targets he might get plenty of in this Chicago offense. Williams will love these quasi-checkdown plays, and with both Burden and Loveland growing into more prominent roles as the season goes on, as rookies tend to do, the target share for Odunze and Moore will be diluted.

So, I'm avoiding them both in all leagues.

DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers

Metcalf has the unfortunate task of trying to be productive with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith running the show in Pittsburgh. Smith has a bad reputation for holding back the fantasy productivity of players in his offenses, and it's not unwarranted.

Drake London, A.J. Brown, and Darnell Mooney are three of the players who clearly broke out and produced much better after Smith was either fired or the player departed for another team. Brown, in particular, broke out massively in his first season away from the Tennessee Titans under Smith's tutelage.

One of my favorite silly narratives of the offseason was “AJ Brown thrived under Arthur Smith.” Don’t get it twisted: AJB thrived *despite* Art.

Had some minor injuries, but they also did weird shit with his routes, and he never hit 1100 yards there despite being a 2.5+ YPRR… pic.twitter.com/EqzXMznjqP

— Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) September 1, 2024

It doesn't matter if Brown was efficient under Smith. What matters is volume, and Brown deserved more of it. Elite WR1s like Brown demand absurd target shares in order to maximize what that player can provide for an NFL offense.

I wouldn't say Metcalf is an elite WR1, but he's the clear WR1 of his team. Smith's offenses are ridiculously run-heavy. He's often admitted his love for the run game. His offenses stubbornly run the ball among the highest rates in the league, even when his backfield is full of lukewarm talents like Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, as it was last season.

Arthur Smith's 2nd half game plan was simple:

Run the damn ball. @AtlantaFalcons pic.twitter.com/ktfCIpj0g6

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) October 4, 2022

Smith has made vague claims about not running the ball as much in 2025. That would go against everything he's shown and everything we know about him so far. So, I find that tough to believe. Smith's underutilization of both London and Brown also doesn't bode well for Metcalf's fantasy value this season.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Waddle's 2022 breakout season was followed by two massively disappointing campaigns since then, and there haven't been many indications that things will turn around for him. His ridiculous efficiency from three seasons ago -- over 18 yards per catch and nearly 11.6 yards per target -- has been nowhere to be seen since.

It was likely an anomaly either way. Waddle's elite efficiency that season was bolstered by massive runs after the catch, which you typically don't see in the NFL from most players other than the most elite YAC guys like Ja'Marr Chase. Waddle's not on his level, and opposing defenses seem to have adjusted to Miami's chicanery.

Jaylen Waddle is so damn fast 🔥 pic.twitter.com/kgbZyyUQIr

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) August 19, 2025

Waddle has been an injury waiting to happen across the past few seasons, having exited multiple games with various ailments and racked up five absences in that span. He's also still not the WR1 on his team. That title belongs to WR Tyreek Hill, and the passing game has changed massively over the past few seasons.

I can't help but avoid drafting Tyreek Hill in the 2nd round in fantasy, which I've seen in a lot of mocks. Tua Tagovailoa's avg time to throw didn't change much, but his ADOT was WAY down. I think this is a personnel thing. Tyreek is 31 and Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane exist. pic.twitter.com/fFb9SCRecD

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025

The Dolphins had the lowest average depth of target on passes from their starting quarterback in the league last year. QB Tua Tagovailoa's average depth of target of 5.9 yards was the lowest in the league of any QB with over 300 attempts. The second-lowest was 6.1 yards, and not a single other QB had below 6.7 yards per pass attempt.

The Dolphins offense morphed into one heavily reliant on the yards after catch abilities of running back De'Von Achane and tight end Jonnu Smith. Smith isn't with the team anymore, but Waddle's elite YAC efficiency in 2022 was strangely not replicated in 2024, despite the new-look offense.

Instead, Smith out-targeted Waddle by a ratio of 6.5 per game to just under 5.5 targets per game for Waddle. Even Achane almost had more targets than him (5.1 per game). That's massively alarming, and when Tagovailoa gets hurt, this entire offense is arguably not startable in fantasy. So I'll be avoiding Waddle this season.

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