Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Busts: 5 Expensive Running Backs to Fade in 2025

Dave analyzes five fantasy football running back bust candidates for the 2025 season. His top RB avoids and overvalued draft fades based on ADP (average draft position)

While every manager loves discussing which players to target in their fantasy football draft, they must also take some time and have a much less fun conversation. Sadly, busts are a part of fantasy football. Whether it's due to injury, poor play, or just plain bad luck, some players let hopeful fantasy managers down every year. Oftentimes, the key to winning your league is knowing which players to avoid.

Today, we will examine several running backs who could struggle to meet their average draft position (ADP) in 2025. For our exercise, we will use ADP data from NFFC (National Fantasy Football Championship) leagues to identify running backs fantasy gamers should avoid.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are five running backs set to fall short of their ADP in 2025 fantasy football leagues.

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Saquon Barkley - Philadelphia Eagles

NFFC ADP: 3.92 Overall

Barkley is coming off an all-world 2024 season. He ran for a career-high 2,005 rushing yards and became the ninth player in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark.

SAQUON BARKLEY IS GONE. 68-YARD TD.

📺: #PHIvsWAS on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/lhBWLZclYZ

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

Barkley has been one of the first players picked in early NFFC drafts. That is certainly understandable given his 2024 season. However, it’s worth pointing out that even with Barkley’s incredible 2024, he still didn’t finish as the top back in full-PPR leagues.

He also touched the football 482 times last year (including playoffs). That is an absurd amount of touches for any running back to handle. There’s a long history of running back production declining following a season with this kind of usage. Barkley has also had his fair share of injury issues throughout his career. It's fair to wonder if all that work will catch up to him in 2025.

Even if he remains healthy, it will be incredibly difficult for Barkley to repeat his 2024 production. He is more likely to regress to his career means than put up another 2,000-yard effort.

So, while it’s understandable that gamers are excited to select him, he may not be as safe a selection as managers think.

Alvin Kamara - New Orleans Saints

NFFC ADP: 49.47 Overall

Kamara finished the 2024 season with a career-high 950 rushing yards and finished the year as the PPR RB9.

There goes Alvin Kamara for 57 yards!

📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/F0NOkTSZ7g

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Despite the success, he once again did not score well in several key metrics. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Kamara finished 32nd in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/ATT) and 37th in Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected (RYOE). Kamara is now another year older, and 2025 will be his age-30 season. This has traditionally been a point at which many running backs experience a decline in their play.

While Klint Kubiak's rush offense was able to get the most out of a declining Kamara last year, it's uncertain if Kellen Moore can do the same. Yes, Moore was the offensive coordinator for Barkley's huge 2024 season, but the Eagles boasted one of the top run-blocking offensive lines in the league, and Barkley was still clearly at the top of his game.

Neither is the case for Kamara in 2025.

Kamara has been a viable fantasy option for the last few years despite declining metrics. However, Father Time always wins. At some point, Kamara's production will fall off a cliff. Throw in the Saints' horrendous quarterback situation, and it's hard to see Kamara replicating last year's success.

James Conner - Arizona Cardinals

NFFC ADP: 59.14 Overall

Conner is coming off arguably the best season of his career in 2024. He had a career-high 1,094 rushing yards, caught 47 passes for 414 receiving yards, and scored nine total touchdowns. It culminated with a half-PPR RB10 finish.

45-yard catch and run by James Conner for the score!

📺: #NYJvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/lJzAiHSDjV

— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2024

Conner is now another year older, and 2025 will be his age-30 season. Like Kamara, he enters a very dangerous area, as running backs over 30 years old can fall off a cliff at any moment. It's not the case for every back, as evidenced by Derrick Henry's massive 2024. But for every Henry, there is a Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook, and Edgerrin James.

Arizona also has second-year running back Trey Benson waiting in the wings. Benson had a very quiet rookie season in 2o24, but the team did not make any notable moves to its running back room even with a strong incoming rookie class. This speaks volumes about its thoughts on Benson.

Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon has also lauded Benson's growth at the end of 2024 and boldly proclaimed he thinks the team has two RB1s in Benson and Conner. General manager Monti Ossenfort echoed similar sentiments as well.

Benson will need to do his part with better play, but with Conner now on the other side of 30, it sounds like the team is eyeing a bigger role for Benson. Conner also has a lengthy injury history, and that is something that doesn't usually improve as a player ages.

While Conner has played at a high level and been a fantastic value for gamers over the last two seasons, he carries some extra risk this year. He might not be a lock for a workhorse role, could lose touches to Benson, and there's also a possibility of age-related decline. All of this means it might be better for gamers to avoid Conner in drafts this year.

Aaron Jones - Minnesota Vikings

NFFC ADP: 73.77 Overall

Jones eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the fourth time in his career last year. He even set new career highs in carries (255) and rushing yards (1,138). However, his yards per carry declined for the second straight season, and he did not score well in several metrics, either. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Jones only finished 40th in MTF/ATT and 37th in PFF elusive rating. Yikes.

It now makes perfect sense why Minnesota acquired Jordan Mason and wants him to have a role in the run game. The Vikings did sign Jones to a two-year contract extension, but it looks like he is a declining player. The acquisition of Mason also suggests Minnesota is hedging its bet on Jones and wants to be prepared in case his play declines.

Either way, the Vikings have made it known they want to scale back Jones' workload and give Mason more of the pie. Put it all together, and it makes Jones an unappealing option on draft day.

Isiah Pacheco - Kansas City Chiefs

NFFC ADP:84.31 Overall

Pacheco was a popular breakout pick heading into 2024, but things quickly went sideways when he suffered a broken fibula in Week 2. The injury knocked him out of action for 10 weeks before he eventually returned in Week 13.

Upon his return, Pacheco was not immediately reinserted into the lineup as Kansas City’s RB1. That may have been the team taking it easy with the young back, but even as Pacheco was further removed from his injury, the team chose to work him in tandem with veteran Kareem Hunt.

The Chiefs could have easily given the RB1 job back to Pacheco, but chose not to do so. Perhaps it was partly due to his play whenever he was on the field. Pacheco averaged a career-worst 3.7 yards per attempt in 2024. He also graded poorly in several running back metrics. Out of 53 backs with 80+ carries, Pacheco finished:

46th in PFF Rushing Grade
50th in Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF), per Fantasy Points Data Suite
50th in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YACO/ATT), per Fantasy Points Data Suite
53rd in PFF's Elusive Rating

Some of his 2024 struggles could be explained due to his injury. However, the fact that Kansas City was so quick to move away from Pacheco for the 29-year-old Hunt is a bit of a red flag.

The team also added rookie Brashard Smith in the 2025 NFL Draft. Smith was only a seventh-round pick, but the team is reportedly quite bullish on his outlook. There's also been chatter that Smith will be used in a pass-catching role right out of the gates. That would automatically hurt Pacheco's ceiling, and if he continues to struggle as a rusher, Smith could begin poaching carries as well.

Pacheco might seem like a value at his current ADP. However, there's a possibility he's not the same player following his injury, and he could cede pass-catching work to Smith. Pacheco is no longer a lock for a three-down role, and that hurts his fantasy value.

Gamers should look elsewhere for running back bargains in their drafts.

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