Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Part 2

Dan analyzes 5 pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers who are surging for Week 7. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks for Max Fried, Kodai Senga, more.

Last week, I examined the first month of results from five pitchers who had had great starts to determine whether their success was sustainable.

This week, I'm back to analyze five more pitchers who are yielding excellent fantasy stats in an attempt to determine their future values.

Is regression coming for these pitchers, and if so, how much? Or can we count on some of these starters to anchor our rotations for the rest of the season?

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Max Fried, New York Yankees

2025 Fantasy Stats: 51.2 IP, 6 W, 47 K, 1.05 ERA, 0.91 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.45 SIERA, 3.28 xERA, 22.6% K%, 50.7% GB%, 107 Stuff+

So I will start here by "taking my L" on Fried as I thought he may take a step back upon his arrival in New York, and I couldn't have been any more wrong. He suffered an injury in 2023, missing half the season, and then came back in 2024 and posted his worst ERA since 2019.

But in his age-31 season, Fried has taken his game to another level, and so far he's paying off huge dividends for the Yankees, who invested a hefty sum on the lefty in free agency.

Fried has continued to tweak his arsenal and is throwing five pitches at least 10% of the time or more. He has not only a great diversity of spin and movement on these pitches, but also throws his three main offspeed pitches at different velocities (changeup - 84 mph, sweeper - 80 mph, curveball 76 mph), which helps his very average 93 to 94 mph fastball and sinker play up to hitters.

The most significant change to his pitch mix this season has been that he's pounding the zone with more fastballs and sinkers, increasing his sweeper usage and decreasing his reliance on his curveball and changeup.

Not many pitchers have a diverse arsenal or two breaking pitches with above-average vertical and horizontal movement like Fried's sweeper and curveball. His ability to keep hitters guessing is going a long way to help buoy his strikeout numbers. His SwStr% is just 9.1%, but his CSW% is 27.4%, so he's getting a ton of called strikes (18.3%). Usually, I'd say that swinging strike rate couldn't sustain his current strikeout rate, but Fried has a career K% of 23.8% and is less reliant on swinging strikes than many other pitchers.

Max Fried exits with an AL-best 1.05 ERA. pic.twitter.com/LLm3YBVtt8

— MLB (@MLB) May 8, 2025

When looking for other red flags, we have a few, but nothing to suggest that Fried will fall off a cliff or anything. His current BABIP (.231), LOB% (85.5%), and HR/FB% (5.9%) are all career-best marks, and I would expect those numbers to normalize a bit over the rest of the season. A 1.05 ERA isn't sustainable over a full season, but Fried is getting groundballs and limiting hard contact at the same rates as in previous years. His Stuff+ rating of 107 is the best of his career, and the increase in sweeper usage has given him another hugely effective weapon.

Verdict: Fried is at the peak of his career athletically and has also evolved into the best version of himself as a seasoned pitcher who can throw five different pitches wherever he wants to in any count. His ERA is more likely to end up in the high twos or low threes, and he's never had a WHIP under 1.00 in his career, so some ratio regression is expected. But he's pitching for a winning team where he can continue accumulating wins.

I would be surprised if he finished inside the top five starting pitchers without elite strikeout numbers, but I can see him easily finishing within the top 10. If you drafted him in the fifth or sixth rounds, kudos, you've secured an excellent pitcher at a very fair price!

Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

2025 Fantasy Stats: 48.2 IP, 4 W, 57 K, 2.96 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.38 SIERA, 2.83 xERA, 30.3% K%, 45.9% GB%, 105 Stuff+

Fried isn't the only Yankee lefty dominating hitters this season, as Carlos Rodon now ranks seventh on the Yahoo player ratings among all starting pitchers after his most recent outstanding start against the Padres.

After dropping three of his first four starts against some pretty good offenses (Arizona, Detroit, and San Francisco), Rodon has allowed just two earned runs over his last four starts spanning 25 and two-thirds innings.

The strikeouts are back, at least for now, as Rodon is sporting a 30% K% for the first time since 2022 when he was with the Giants. His 11.2% SwStr% doesn't support that number holding up forever, but a strong 30.9% CSW% also suggests he's not about to fall off a cliff either. I would expect him to level off around 25 to 26%, which is where he finished last season.

Rodon, at age 32, has finally settled into what looks like the most effective pitch mix of his career. Since he's no longer a high-velocity guy, it makes sense that he's continued to decrease his four-seam fastball usage, and the introduction of a sinker, even if he's only throwing it 9% of the time, has helped him post his best GB% (nearly 46%) since his rookie season.

His slider continues to be his best pitch as opponents are hitting just .098 against it, and it has a 43.7% whiff rate.

Carlos Rodón, Wicked 82mph Back Foot Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/124B6iby33

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 5, 2025

He increased his usage of the changeup, too, and now has a five-pitch arsenal for the first time in his career. One area for concern is the 10% BB%; however, Rodon has issued just four free passes over his last three starts, so he's trending in the right direction. His BABIP of .181 is 100 points lower than his career average, so he's having some luck on batted balls, but his xERA being lower than his ERA also suggests that he's inducing more weak contact, too.

Verdict: We've seen the bad Rodon for the first half of his starts and the really good version of him for the last half. I'm inclined to think that the real version is somewhere in the middle, which is still a pretty solid pitcher.

He has made some adjustments to his pitch mix that could yield long-term results. Based on his current trends, I'm on Rodon, and I think Fried may have been a positive influence on him in terms of helping him have a more balanced arsenal and get more predictable, solid results.

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

2025 Fantasy Stats: 38.2 IP, 4 W, 35 K, 1.16 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 4.25 SIERA, 3.19 xERA, 23% K%, 43.9% GB%, 94 Stuff+

The Mets have been a great success story to start the season. They got Senga back in the rotation and had guys like Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes pitching at or above expectations to form a formidable rotation.

Oddly enough, their ace, Senga, might have pitched the worst compared to expectations. How can I complain about a 1.16 ERA through his first 38 innings? Well, because it's been a magic act that can't last. Let's dive in further.

These sliders don't look like those of an elite pitcher. While the xERA is decent, the walks, chase rate, and hard hit rate are troubling. Senga's current ERA is probably the biggest fakeout in the league. His SIERA is a full three runs higher, with red flags everywhere.

Senga only made one start in 2024, but when we compare his stats to 2023, we see that his strikeouts are down from 29% to 23%. His 87% LOB% is the 9th highest in MLB, and his 2.4% HR/FB% is the second-best mark among qualified starters. Both numbers are unsustainable, with MLB averages being 72% and 20%, respectively.

His stuff doesn't appear to be nearly as sharp. His Stuff+ grade of 94 is well below average, and his mark of 101 from 2023.

The velocity on his four-seamer is down a full tick on the radar gun, and he's becoming increasingly more dependent on his forkball, which he's throwing more often than ever before.

Verdict: I think there is still plenty of time for Senga to get back to his 2023 form, but right now, he's not there, and his ERA is masking the fact that he's only pitching "okay" and not at an elite level. With as many walks as he issues, it's only a matter of time before he has a blowup start and allows those runners to score. The ERA and WHIP are both likely heading for a significant course correction sooner rather than later. I'm calling this the biggest fakeout in the article, but I also acknowledge that Senga still has the potential to be an excellent pitcher this season.

Tyler Mahle, Texas Rangers

2025 Fantasy Stats: 42.2 IP, 3 W, 32 K, 1.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 4.36 SIERA, 3.45 xERA, 19.3% K%, 43.7% GB%, 91 Stuff+

If it weren't for Senga's impostor levels, then Mahle would be the top choice for the biggest fakeout in the major leagues. We also have to recognize that no one expected this level of production from Tyler Mahle, who has been a reclamation project for Texas. In contrast, Senga has much higher expectations as the ace of the Mets staff.

If you have been riding the hot start of Mahle or picked him up off the wire early in April, congrats! However, there are many reasons to believe that this miracle run by Mahle through his first eight starts will be coming to an end soon.

#Rangers starter Tyler Mahle led American League in March/April in ERA (1.14), opponent OPS (.465), and opponent SLG (.211). Held opponents to the 3rd-best AVG (.165), 5th-fewest batters faced per 9.0 IP (8.81).

— Red Sox Nation Stats (@RSNStats) May 8, 2025

Like Senga, Mahle's ERA indicators both indicate some major regression coming. Mahle's lack of strikeouts is very concerning, as he's dipped to just a 19% K%, which is a few ticks lower than the league average. While you don't have to be a big strikeout pitcher to carry an elite ERA, you usually need to be very good at inducing weak contact, and that usually comes from ground ball pitchers (of which Mahle is not, at only 43.7%).

Mahle doesn't have a high velocity fastball and relies a lot on his splitter to help throw off opposing hitters' eye level. It seems like he's trying to follow in Nathan Eovaldi's footsteps and become a splitter-heavy pitcher, except he lacks a good breaking ball to pair with the splitter, and he throws his fastball far too often (52%) for a pitch that isn't dominant.

Mahle's Stuff+ rating is just 91, but his Location+ rating of 113 is near the top of the league. He doesn't have great stuff in layman's terms, but he has been hitting his spots at a much higher rate than most pitchers of his ilk. So take nothing away from Mahle; he's maximizing his talent right now, but at some point, major league hitters will adjust, and you can't be perfect every time out.

Verdict: Without any elite pitches, Mahle lacks the type of arsenal that could be dominant, and he's pitching well above his head. The good news is that acquiring him this season probably cost you very little, so any value he provides is icing on the cake. But don't get used to this type of return, Mahle is much more likely to pitch like an average MLB starter the rest of the way.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

2025 Fantasy Stats: 48.1 IP, 4 W, 56 K, 2.61 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 2.77  SIERA, 2.86 xERA, 28.7% K%, 53.6% GB%, 106 Stuff+

I may have saved the best for last. While Webb is the furthest down in the Yahoo rankings among the five pitchers featured here, I won't be surprised if he passes all of them up before the season is over.

The one stat holding Webb back is his WHIP, which is inflated due to a few games where he struggled with control (Four walks vs. the Yankees, three walks vs. the Reds and Brewers). Webb is a guy who has allowed a lot of contact and thus hits in the past, but he did post a WHIP lower than 1.20 in 2022, 2023, and 2024. If you want to dig a little deeper, then you'll see that his BABIP this season is .352, which is forty points higher than his career average. If anything, Webb should have some positive regression coming in the WHIP department.

What's exciting for Webb's managers is the increase in strikeouts. His current 28.5% K% would be the best of his career if the season ended today, and six percent higher than his career average. Now, I don't think he's finishing the year at 28% with only an 11.6% SwStr%, however, his 31.8% CSW% is the best mark of any pitcher in this article,e and I think his profile suggests he could end up around 25 to 26% as he did back in 2021.

Logan Webb's 3Ks in the 2nd. 🕸️ pic.twitter.com/XwNpayqWFJ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 4, 2025

Webb has made a few crucial adjustments to his arsenal this season. He's added a cutter that he throws to lefties and has increased (slightly) the amount of four-seam fastballs while also increasing (vastly) the number of sweepers he's throwing. At the same time, he's throwing fewer changeups, which had the worst batted ball metrics of any of his pitches last season.

Webb doesn't rely on velocity to fool hitters, but has some of the best horizontal movement on his pitches as he drops down to a 24-degree arm angle. When you look at his movement chart, you can see that his sinker is running on righties more than ever (16.7 inches) while also dropping harder than most other sinkers (31.3 inches vertical drop).

His changeup has elite vertical movement (41.9 inches of drop) while his sweeper breaks 14.7 inches to his glove side. Those three pitches all have such different planes, but all of them break down and either in or away from hitters, allowing Webb to still get a ton of groundballs in addition to the strikeouts.

Verdict: Webb is a seasoned veteran and an innings workhorse. He was drafted by many for the fact that he's been durable and reliable, providing solid ratios and competing for wins. But this could be the year he increases his strikeouts and makes a run at being one of the top pitchers in baseball.

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