4 League-Losing Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Early Round Bust Candidates to Avoid (2025)

John breaks down four league-losing fantasy football bust candidates to avoid drafting in 2025. His picks for early round busts are Tyreek Hill, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kyren Williams, and DJ Moore.

Nothing's worse than picking a player in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts, only for them to become duds. Injuries aren't even the worst outcomes for these players -- when they produce much worse than expected, they're stuck on your roster.

Players whom you don't think you can bench and who most aren't willing to trade for are horrible assets to have. League losers aren't players who do nothing -- rather, they're the ones who you keep putting in your lineups out of a lack of other options who keep burning you.

Some of the players on this list might be controversial. That's the point, though. If they weren't controversial, they wouldn't be early round picks, and this would be a pointless exercise. Let's dive in!

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Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Hill is now 31 years old. I think that's the biggest reason why he should be avoided in drafts. He simply doesn't fit the archetype of a player who ages like fine wine and continues to put up huge seasons in their final years in the league. Hill has always won with two things -- massive speed and massive acceleration.

The absolute top-end explosive athleticism is one of the quickest things to disappear from professional athletes once they eclipse the age of 30. Some players keep their elite athleticism for a bit longer, but the clock starts ticking once they get over 30.

Tyreek Hill on vertically breaking routes

2023:
- 46.9% of route tree (4th-most)
- .233 Average Separation (3rd-best)
- 5.30 YPRR (best by a mile)
- 34% TPRR (best)

2024:
- 51.8% of route tree (2nd-most)
- .069 Average Separation (33rd)
- 1.64 YPRR (50th)
- 17% TPRR (33rd) pic.twitter.com/1peSLD7xF5

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) May 29, 2025

A statistical and film analysis of Hill's 2024 season shows that the fall-off we expect at some point happened to him in 2024. He struggled through a wrist injury, but that had zero effect on his lower body, and we didn't get any reports of a lingering, season-long issue in his legs or hips.

So, it's hard to come to any other conclusion. And at 31 years old, expecting Hill to turn it around and "return to form" doesn't make much sense. 31-year-old players don't usually return to their 29-year-old form after a down season.

Hill simply is not separating from coverage like he used to. The highlight-reel plays of him blowing past defensive backs and getting wide open appear to be gone. And it seems that Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has adjusted his offense to compensate for this.

Waddle in 2023:

0.077 sep score (ASS) on corner routes (Tyreek: 0.259)

0.175 ASS on post routes (Tyreek: 0.288)

0.302 ASS on go routes (Tyreek: 0.195)

Data via @FantasyPtsData

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025

In the above X thread, I dug a little bit deeper into these stats. Many are quick to point the finger at McDaniel, blaming him for all of Hill's woes, but that doesn't make sense. McDaniel is the coach who unlocked Hill's most elite seasons as a receiver.

If his scheme truly were complete garbage, it wouldn't make much sense for fellow Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle's statistics not to have dropped off similarly. And they didn't. There are also reps on tape that are remarkably concerning for Hill. One of them should convince you not to draft him at all.

I think this is my favorite play from Sunday: Zaven Collins winning a foot race from the line of scrimmage against Tyreek Hill.

DC Nick Rallis: “I was wondering if he hit some high speed there.” pic.twitter.com/1HCyShIuAG

— Theo Mackie (@theo_mackie) October 30, 2024

Taking into account that Hill also never surpassed even 21 miles per hour as a ball-carrier in 2024 should make you concerned as well. Hill was a regular on the list of Next Gen Stats' fastest ball-carriers, topping out at over 21.9 MPH in multiple seasons. Last year, he never cracked 20.54.

This is despite having a few long plays and plenty of opportunities to reach those speeds. It gets worse before it gets better. When Miami starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa doesn't play, the Dolphins offense regresses into something that can only be described as a complete disaster. They have no backup plan.

Looking through Tua Tagovailoa's injury history, just in the NFL (not including college) should turn you away from drafting Tyreek Hill. It's looooooooooooooong. And when Tua doesn't play, Hill is awful. pic.twitter.com/DoDeLYBh3Q

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025

Tagovailoa's injury history is long and extremely concerning. He might be one concussion away from spending half the season on injured reserve. And why would anyone want to have Hill burning a hole in their roster with QB Zach Wilson leading the Dolphins? That's a recipe for disaster.

There are just so many reasons not to draft Hill. Were he a few years younger, we'd be having a different conversation, of course. But he's not, and it's better to be a year early on these guys than a year late when you're spending a second-round pick on them in redraft leagues.

I'm not saying Hill will have a bad season, but the risk that he busts is incredibly high, and the multiple scenarios in which that happens are exceedingly likely. Even though Jonnu Smith has been traded to the Steelers and could open up additional opportunities for Hill, he is best to fade at his current ADP.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Nearly a 20 percent regression in yards per carry. The biggest fumbler in the league at running back. Far too slow to create explosive plays. These all apply to Kyren Williams. His YPC average fell from 5.0 in 2023 to 4.1 in 2024. He leads the league in fumbles over the last two seasons, and he has just a 0.6 percent rate of rushes of 20 yards or more.

This is all despite operating in Rams head coach Sean McVay's offense, which is consistently one of the best in the league. Williams was bad at just about everything other than staying healthy -- he just was given an absolutely massive opportunity to work with.

Jarquez Hunter career numbers (compared to other '25 prospects)

+ YPC: 6.3 (4th among 31 RBs)
+ MTF/Att: 0.31 (T-4th)
+ YACo/Att: 3.96 (4th)
+ Breakaway Run %: 10.2% (2nd)

With an 88th percentile 40 and 4 productive years in the SEC, Hunter feels severely underrated at RB23. https://t.co/qwa1s9itHG

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) April 10, 2025

The Rams' rush offense was horrific at creating explosive plays last season. In case you're wondering, Williams' backup, Blake Corum, created precisely zero. So, it makes sense that McVay wanted to draft a player who could change that. Enter former Auburn Tigers RB Jarquez Hunter.

Hunter averaged 6.8 yards per carry last season in the SEC, the toughest division in college football. He forced missed tackles at a high rate and created plenty of explosive plays, something that Williams has never been able to do. And something that Corum has completely failed at in the NFL.

If a running back (re: Jarquez Hunter) can accelerate rapidly with one or two off balance steps, he can be a nightmare for defenses. Off-balance acceleration is a very under-appreciated skill for running backs. pic.twitter.com/9zfCB4cK83

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025

My film analysis has led me to believe that Hunter is simply a better back than Williams. Sure, Hunter has never played a snap in the NFL, but the moment that Hunter gets a significant portion of the team's carries, he could run away with the starting job. All it might take is a Williams injury.

In 2023, Williams was seen as a highly injury-prone player. Last season could have been an aberration. Like I said with Hill, it's better to be early on a player than late, and late-round running backs can lose their jobs quickly.

Kyren Williams averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 3.5 yards before contact per attempt (most in the league for anyone with 120+ carries) in 2024. Just 2.1 YBCon/Att and 4.1 YPC in 2024. Without elite run blocking his efficiency nosedived pic.twitter.com/P9WgDAQKpT

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 14, 2025

Williams' 2023 season, to me, was an aberration. He was propelled by elite run-blocking and McVay's schemes that allowed him a massive amount of yards before contact. He had a huge amount of space to work with. The run-blocking has regressed, and Williams was much less effective as a result.

I wouldn't take Williams at his ADP in any leagues. If you draft him, make sure you make it a priority to take Hunter, too.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

JSN was well on his way to having an immeasurably disappointing season in 2024. In Weeks 1-7, he averaged just 10.9 PPR points per game despite being targeted nearly eight times per game. Seattle's offense passed the ball at one of the highest rates over expected in the league, which explains a majority of his production in that time.

Pass Rate Over Expectation through Week 10 pic.twitter.com/0niFTZUuhl

— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) November 13, 2024

Still, Smith-Njigba's production was disappointing. It wasn't until fellow Seattle WR DK Metcalf, who was the team's clear WR1, got injured that JSN started to put up better points. Metcalf bested JSN in targets, yards, and touchdowns in Weeks 1-7.

However, with no one else to throw the ball to, Seattle quarterback Geno Smith started spamming JSN with targets. His Week 9 game against the Los Angeles Rams especially boosted his production. When Metcalf returned, he functioned as little more than a decoy.

In the 2025 offseason, though, Seattle traded away Smith and replaced him with QB Sam Darnold, one of the league's worst under consistent pressure. It also hired offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who called run plays at an alarmingly high rate in New Orleans before the offensive line was decimated by injuries.

You are not familiar with Klint Kubiak’s game https://t.co/ejPyn2eiLi

— ken (@JaiIpose) March 10, 2025

It makes a lot of sense for the Seahawks, who consistently have a horrible pass-protecting offensive line, to lean into the run game as much as possible, too. Also in the offseason, Seattle signed former Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp, a slot receiver. The bad thing about that is that JSN is also a slot receiver.

Smith-Njigba isn't a burner and doesn't possess great size, so winning on the outside isn't his forte. But he'll likely be pushed there for the time being by Kupp's arrival. All these red flags have convinced me to avoid JSN in all leagues this year.

DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

When it comes to Bears pass-catchers, I often find myself surprised that their value hasn't plummeted in fantasy football leagues. I'm speaking about Moore and fellow Chicago WR Rome Odunze, both of whom were on the team last year, and both of whom are facing much more target competition moving forward.

After the departure of wide receiver Keenan Allen, many fantasy managers believed it would be time for both Moore and Odunze to step up into leading roles and become the primary and featured 1-2 punch in this passing offense. Those clear waters have been muddied massively by the new coaching staff.

-Rome Odunze compares to Xavier Legette in terms of efficiency and target share in Year 1

-Everyone says "don't worry, Keenan Allen is gone"

-Bears draft Colston Loveland and Luther Burden with their first 2 picks

Sell Odunze ASAP. https://t.co/Vgr1FVpqXS

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 22, 2025

I'd gladly include Odunze on this list, but he's not exactly an early round pick. Moore currently sits at WR20, comfortably in the fourth round of fantasy football drafts, and I can't see any reason why he's still there. Do people expect him to get the targets to be a difference-maker?

For starters, the team used its first two picks in the first and second rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft to choose tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III. The NFL Draft is awesome because it's a way for teams to tell us what they think about their current personnel.

During Ben Johnson’s recent press conference, he spoke about max effort from players and blocking for teammates

Last year, we saw the opposite from DJ Moore. Terrible body language, lack of effort, and frustration

Is Luther Burden III his replacement? pic.twitter.com/Fc8x2T46PL

— The FF Dynasty (@TheFFdynasty) May 6, 2025

Johnson has now made multiple references to players' lack of effort, and Moore himself has stated that he needs to improve in this area. Despite the excuse he made for the above play, there are other instances on tape in which it was a problem. Lack of effort is one of the quickest ways to lose opportunities.

Teams prefer players who stick by their teams through the worst of times, never showing any signs of slowing down intentionally and playing through minor ailments as much as possible. For Moore to meet his ADP, there'd have to be a massive alignment of stars.

He'd have to stay as the clear No. 1 target and clean up all his effort issues and never show them again. Loveland and Burden would need to be highly ineffective and useless. Odunze would need to not break out. And quarterback Caleb Williams would have to take a MASSIVE leap forward.

Caleb Williams delivered a 38% catchable ball rate on throws of 20+ air yards without pressure in 2024.

QB32 out of 33 qualifiers

(Source: @FantasyPtsData) https://t.co/ANSaWMFPBh pic.twitter.com/vOuMbBrDTA

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 19, 2025

Williams was horrendous as a deep passer last season. That's Moore's forte -- the deep parts of the field. Sure, he was used on screens more after OC Shane Waldron was fired, but Burden was the best YAC threat in the class, and Loveland was fantastic in the short-to-middle areas as a separator and mismatch weapon.

The pieces seem to be in place for Moore to be slowly phased out of the offense, or at least relegated to a much more minor role. Drafting Moore feels like putting a ticking time bomb on your team. You'll likely get poor production and lose weeks by having him in your starting lineup. Avoid like the plague.

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