X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates: Expected Stat Underperformers - The Tortured No Hits Department

Yordan Alvarez - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Kevin's fantasy baseball buy-lows, sleepers and trade candidates to target. These hitters have been unlucky and are underperforming their expected stats.

"I think some things I never say, like, 'Who uses Torpedo Bats anyway?'"

Baseball can be a fickle beast. You can hit the ball perfectly on the barrel, and it's hit right at a defender and is caught. You can check swing and hit a dribbler a few feet in front of home plate and get a hit.

Let's take a look at a few players who have been on the wrong side of these situations more often than not this season. These unlucky guys are off to slow starts on the surface but are greatly underperforming their expected stats. If the manager in your league is getting frustrated with them, it's the perfect time to buy low.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals

A 35-year-old catcher having the worst offensive season of his career? Maybe he's just washed. Salvy is hitting .223 with only three homers and a 63 WRC+ this season. He has been awful, and despite being selected as a top-5 catcher in many drafts, many fantasy managers are probably looking for other options behind the plate.

However, Salvy has been the unluckiest hitter in baseball so far this season. He has the most considerable negative difference between his wOBA and xwOBA, a difference of 94 points (.265 wOBA vs. .359 xwOBA). His BA is also 69 points lower than his xBA, and his SLG is 175 points lower than his xSLG.

Taking a look at his Savant page, it looks just like you'd expect a Perez Savant page to look. He has a strikeout rate in the low 20s, a very low walk rate, and still has solid quality of contact metrics.

At this point, it's unlikely Salvy will be a profit at his top-5 catcher draft cost. However, he's bound for some positive regression soon. When that hits, he'll likely still be a top 10 catcher for the rest of the season. If you're struggling for production at catcher or in a two-catcher league, I'd be trying to acquire him.

 

Yordan Alvarez, OF/DH, Houston Astros

There might not be a better buy-low option in fantasy baseball right now than Yordan Alvarez. He's currently on the injured list (hand inflammation), and he's off to a very slow start to the season. His manager in your league might be panicking a bit and willing to deal him to get more active production.

While the Astros are not the most trustworthy organization when it comes to reporting on the timelines of their injured players (see Kyle Tucker last season), a hand injury should not keep Alvarez out too much longer or have a long-term impact on his production.

Regarding Yordan's production, it's been really bad so far. He has a career-low 78 WRC+, but it's safe to assume this won't last, as his career low WRC+ was 137 coming into this season, and he has a 162 WRC+ for his entire career.

He's second behind Salvy in terms of players with the largest negative gap between their wOBA and xwOBA (.278 wOBA vs. .364 xwOBA). He's underperforming his xSLG by 155 points. While he's only underperforming his xBA by 36 points, he has a career low .222 BABIP. He's never had a BABIP below .300 in his career.

Looking at Yordan's Savant page, it's not as red as it usually is (bright red everywhere), but it's still way too red for a player putting up the numbers he is so far this season. He still has an elite approach at the plate, striking out 17.4 percent of the time while walking 13.2 percent of the time. He still hits the ball very hard with a 95th percentile average EV.

While we might not get a vintage Yordan season, bad Alvarez is still better than the vast majority of the hitters in the league. Bad times don't last for elite talents who are still putting up strong plate approach and quality of contact metrics.

 

Juan Soto, OF, New York Mets

"No one is selling low on Juan Soto. He was a first-round pick." It feels like there have been only negative narratives around Juan Soto, or "Juan Suck-o," in the first month and a half of the season.

When you sign a $765 million contract in the offseason, everything you do gets scrutinized. In the early going, he has not been clutch in a few late-game situations, and Mets and Yankees fans have both been vocal about his "struggles."

Many fantasy players have also pointed out that Soto doesn't get the benefit this season of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, and he doesn't get to hit in front of Aaron Judge.

Despite all of the negative narratives, Soto has still been Soto. He has the fourth-highest xwOBA in the league behind only Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Kyle Schwarber. His wOBA is 80 points lower than his xwOBA (.354 wOBA vs. .434 xwOBA). He's also underperforming his xBA by 60 points and his xSLG by 156 points.

Looking under the hood, Soto has a bright red savant page. He's still hitting the ball very hard and is not pressing at the plate by swinging at bad pitches. The famous Soto plate discipline is still evident as he's walking more than he's striking out this season.

While a little disappointing, Soto isn't having a horrible start to the fantasy season. He still has eight HRs and five SBs. The .243 BA and career low 129 WRC+ leave a bit to be desired but he's due for some positive regression, especially given his .259 BABIP.

If the Soto manager in your league is frustrating with his slow start and buying into some of the anti-Soto narratives, look to buy low on him. He should still provide first two round value with mid-to-high 30's HRs, double-digit steals, a solid batting average, and lots of runs and RBIs in the Mets lineup.

 

Brandon Lowe, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays

At the beginning of the season, I had a bold prediction that Brandon Lowe would be a top-5 fantasy second baseman. That prediction is not looking great so far. While the eight HRs he's given you so far are decent, it has come with a career low .224 BA and 91 WRC+.

Like the above players, Lowe is greatly underperforming his expected stats. There's a 52-point difference between his wOBA and xwOBA (.293 wOBA vs. .345 xwOBA). He's also underperforming his xBA by 44 points and his xSLG by 101 points.

While his strikeout rate is pretty high, it's not much higher than it has been throughout his career, and it hasn't stopped him from being one of the best-hitting second basemen in the league in the past. His quality of contact metrics is all solid, and he's hitting the ball harder than he has in many of his previous seasons.

Lowe has never had a WRC+ below 100 in his career, and I don't expect that to change, especially as he's hitting in the best home ballpark of his career.

His lefty swing is perfectly suited for Steinbrenner Field, and he's making a cognizant effort to pull the ball more as he has a career-high pull rate of 52.1 percent. With his strong quality of contact metrics, we can expect him to continue to hit a lot of HRs, and his ratios should improve as he gets some positive expected stat regression.

In deeper leagues, I'd be looking to buy low on Lowe as he can provide a ton of power upside at the second base position. In some shallow leagues, he might be on waivers, and he's a worthwhile pickup if you're looking for a power-hitting middle infielder.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
A.J. Puk

Pauses Throwing Program
Matt Chapman

Can Begin Rehabbing in a Week
Logan Gilbert

Next Start Could Come in the Big Leagues
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Yordan Alvarez

Still Not Hitting
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Jacob Wilson

Returns on Friday
Justin Martinez

Out 12-13 Months With UCL Sprain
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Matt Chapman

Could Miss the Rest of June
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Rashawn Slater

Takes Part in Minicamp
Jack Bech

Mostly Working With Second-Team Offense
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Makes Strides This Offseason
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Ashton Jeanty

to be Part of Committee Backfield?
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Christian McCaffrey

Takes Part in Mandatory Minicamp
Jordan Watkins

has Been Standing Out
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Jacob Cowing

on the Rise
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Demarcus Robinson

a Frequent Target This Spring
Dee Winters

has Been Impressive This Spring
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aaron Civale

Traded to the White Sox
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled With Cramps
Framber Valdez

Punches Out 12 in Win
Isaac Paredes

Homers, Exits Early With Hamstring Injury
D.J. Humphries

Rams Sign D.J. Humphries on Thursday
Troy Franklin

has Had a Good Offseason
Jacob Misiorowski

Leaves Game with Ankle Injury
Mike Williams

Expected to be Ready for Training Camp
Trey Benson

Adds Weight, Explosiveness
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Christian Moore

Angels Calling Up Christian Moore
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Christian Yelich

Back in Brewers Lineup
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Chris Kreider

Ducks Acquire Chris Kreider From Rangers
Aaron Judge

Out for First Time All Season
Kodai Senga

Heading to Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Rafael Devers

has Been Playing Through Groin Strain
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Cale Makar

Wins His Second Norris Trophy
Lane Hutson

Voted NHL's Best Rookie
CGY

Adam Klapka Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Considered a Game-Time Call Thursday
Carlos Santana

Hits Grand Slam on Wednesday
Alec Bohm

Homers, Drives in Four on Wednesday
Clarke Schmidt

Strikes Out Seven in Win on Wednesday
Hunter Goodman

Homers, Doubles Twice on Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Kevin Durant

Expected to Be Moved Soon
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Reportedly Has "No Trade Market"
Jarace Walker

Remains Out Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton

"Fine" For Wednesday's Action
Denny Hamlin

Charges Late to Win at Michigan
Carson Hocevar

Michigan Run is Derailed by A Late-Race Flat Tire
Kyle Larson

Up-and-Down Day Ends With Top-Five Finish at Michigan
Ross Chastain

Quietly Finishes Sixth at Michigan
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Says Rehab Going "Great"
Corey Perry

Nets Power-Play Goal in Monday's Loss
Stuart Skinner

Gets Pulled in Heavy Game 3 Defeat
Evan Rodrigues

Extends Scoring Streak with Multi-Point Effort
Sam Reinhart

Collects Two Points in Monday's Win
Chris Buescher

Takes Second Place After William Byron Runs Out of Fuel
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has a Great Points Day to Build Buffer Over the Playoff Cut Line
Ryan Blaney

Flat Tire Results in Poor Finish for Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman

Playoffs in Doubt After Stage 2 Crash at Michigan
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
Denny Hamlin

is A Top Contender to Win At Michigan
Kyle Larson

Will Compete For The Win At Michigan
Chase Elliott

is One of the Most Favored DFS Options of the Week for Michigan
William Byron

May be A Top Threat to Win at Michigan
Kyle Busch

is Difficult to Recommend for DFS Lineups at Michigan
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Qualifies Ninth For the FireKeepers Casino 400
Alex Bowman

What Should Fantasy Managers Do With Alex Bowman at Michigan?
Austin Cindric

Should Austin Cindric be Considered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Should Shane Van Gisbergen Be Rostered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
John Hunter Nemechek

Is A Solid Value Option For Michigan DFS Lineups
Zane Smith

Is Zane Smith Worth Rostering Outside of Tournament Lineups at Michigan?
Todd Gilliland

Is A Decent Value Option for Michigan DFS Lineups
Ryan Blaney

One of the Leading DFS Contenders, but Might Be Slightly Overpriced
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF