FYPD Sleepers, Draft Targets and Avoids - 2025 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Prospects

January 30, 2025

Chris Clegg's 2025 fantasy baseball FYPD (First Year Player Draft) sleepers, draft targets and avoids. His favorite FYPD prospects for dynasty fantasy baseball.

It is FYPD season for most dynasty fantasy baseballers, and we at RotoBaller are here to help. With the new crop of international players signing and a large portion of the 2024 draftees having made their pro debut, we now have a better idea of how this class might shake out.

Hitting on the lower FYPD picks is critical for success. Who should you target to get a massive return?

This article won't focus on specific ranks but on players to target, some deeper sleepers, and maybe some higher-ranked players I am avoiding. Who are these first-year player draft targets you should know for dynasty leagues? Let's dig in.

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FYPD Target No. 1 - Griffin Burkholder, OF

Age 19, Philadelphia Phillies, 6-foot-2/195 lbs

Burkholder was drafted in the second round, 63rd overall, by the Phillies in the 2024 draft. He received a $2.5 million bonus, nearly double the slot value, and the same bonus that the Phillies handed out to first-rounder Dante Nori. Burkholder made his pro debut, but it was just one game in which he smoked a 101 mph triple and showed off his 70-grade wheels.

At the Super 60 Pro Showcase, Burkholder clocked exit velocities at the top of his class and hit the ball at ideal angles, having an 84 percent air percentage. The hand and bat speed ranked among the top prep hitters.

On top of the power potential, Burkholder grades exceptionally well as an athlete, having one of the class's top vertical jumps and sprint speeds. On the 60-yard dash, Burkholder posted an incredible 6.29 seconds, which is an elite mark. In the 30-yard, home to the first equivalent, Burkholder posted a 3.54-second mark.

The frame is strong and there is still a little projection left. There is a real chance Burkholder could have plus power and 70-grade speed when all is said and done.

The Why

Burkholder is everything I look for in a prep-bat. It is how I found Roman Anthony, Aidan Smith, and Jonny Farmelo types. Burkholder has plus power and speed, and I believe in his hit tool. He could soar into the top 100s pretty fast.

"Welcome to the Minor Leagues, Griffin Burkholder!"

Equipped with 70-grade speed per @MLBPipeline, the @Phillies' second-rounder shows off his wheels on his first pro hit for the @Threshers. pic.twitter.com/yCnvbSAg8I

— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) August 13, 2024

FYPD Target No. 2 - Tyson Lewis, SS

 Age 19, Cincinnati Reds, 6-foot-2/195 lbs

Power, speed, and athleticism? Lewis checks all three boxes while having a strong 6-foot-2/195 lbs frame. The lefty generates natural loft in his swing and registered exit velocities as high as 108 mph, which easily tops his class. Not to mention he clocked a 6.4-second 60-yard dash, which is plus or better speed.

Lewis is known as one of the harder workers in the class and has undergone a swing change over the last year. He now looks more natural with his swing. While he already has a great frame, he still has room to fill out and add more power. Among the prep shortstops, he already has some of the best power in that group.

There are some concerns about swing and miss against secondary pitches right now, but the results spoke for themselves. Lewis slashed an impressive .496/.579/.912 with eight home runs and 29 extra-base hits. He stole 31 bases as well. This is a profile I’m very intrigued by.

The Why

You can copy and paste much of what I said about Burkholder here. He is blazing fast and has plenty of power upside to dream of. If he cleans up contact against secondary pitches, the stock soars.

FYPD Target No. 3 - Ryan Sloan, RHP

Age 19, Seattle Mariners, 6-foot-4/225 lbs

Sloan is a tall and physical righty who made significant gains on his fastball this year and shows quality stuff across the board. This spring, his fastball sat in the mid-90s, touching 98. He throws it in the zone often and gets nice horizontal movement. It is a low-effort delivery, but the velocity comes easily.

Dialing it back, Sloan has a heavy fading changeup sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s that gets 13-15 inches of fade while showing good carry. It plays exceptionally well off his fastball.

The slider gets good horizontal separation the other way, averaging 15 inches of sweep and sometimes getting near 18 inches. It sits in the low-to-mid 80s with high spin. The command of each pitch is pretty impressive for his age, which bodes well for him as a prep arm moving forward as a professional.

The Why

Prep pitchers are the riskiest demographic. However, Sloan has all the intangibles to take a big step forward and become one of the better pitching prospects in the game. Avoiding prep pitchers would cause you to miss on the Andrew Painters, Jackson Jobes, and Bubba Chandlers of the world.

Class 4A Kane Co. Cougars Supersectional: York 9, McHenry 5, final. York’s Ryan Sloan gets Kaden Wasniewski with 98 mph heat here. pic.twitter.com/FKQxpCnbfF

— Joe Stevenson (@nwh_JoePrepZone) June 4, 2024

FYPD Sleeper No. 1 - Blake Burke, 1B

Age 22, Milwaukee Brewers, 6-foot-3/236 lbs

Burke hit 20 home runs and had 51 extra-base hits in 2024 while slashing .379/.449/.702. He struck out 15 percent of the time and walked around 11 percent of the time. There are quite a few similarities between him and Tommy White, who put up big-time exit velocities and makes respectable contact but also chases a bit.

Burke’s exit velocities were 98th percentile among all college hitters as he posted a 95 mph average exit velocity with 110 mph at the 90th percentile. Topping out at 117 mph, Burke has a 54 percent hard-hit rate.

The contact was also respectable as Burke posted an overall contact rate near 84 percent with an in-zone mark north of 88 percent. The issue is that Burke chases a ton out of the zone, coming in north of 32 percent on the chase rate. The good news is he still made good contact on pitches out of the zone.

Burke is a heavy line drive hitter and does a good job getting to the pull side. The power is evident. He has risks at a corner-only profile, but he also brings a lot of likes to the table. If you want a power specialty, Burke might be your guy.

FYPD Sleeper No. 2 - Cobb Hightower, SS

 Age 19, San Diego Padres, 6-foot/180 lbs

Hightower landed with the Padres in the third round of the 2024 MLB Draft, signing him away from his commitment to UNC. He was somewhat of a late riser in the draft cycle, but now he looks like a player more teams might regret not getting in on early.

The bat speed stands out when you watch Hightower, and he does a great job finding the barrel. Having a good weight distribution in his setup, he utilized a big leg kick for his 6-foot frame and created a wide stride. The point of contact is strong and out in front of the plate, and Hightower keeps the bat's barrel in the zone for a long time.

He posted excellent run times, with a 60-yard dash as fast as 6.6 seconds. The athleticism is there, and Hightower could have quite a well-rounded skill set. Given his skill set, the knocks on his age should probably be ignored.

The San Diego Padres select Cobb Hightower with the 88th overall pick in the 2024 MLB draft.

➡️+bat speed & +barrel control
➡️ Projectable Power
➡️ Quick Hands
➡️ Selective Hitter/ good eye at the dish
(36 BB's his senior year of HS) pic.twitter.com/qpLeUSFDGK

— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) July 15, 2024

FYPD Sleeper No. 3 - Kyle DeBarge, SS

Age 21, Minnesota Twins, 5-foot-9/175 lbs

DeBarge enjoyed a successful career at Louisiana-Lafayette but took a massive step forward in 2024 as he mashed 21 home runs with 19 stolen bases while slashing .356/.418/.699 in 290 plate appearances. The Twins selected him in the comp round, giving him a $2.4 million bonus.

DeBarge does not jump off the page from a data perspective, having an 89 mph average exit velocity and a 104 90th percentile with metal, translating to being above-average among college hitters. The contact skills were impressive, though, as DeBarge had a 91 percent in-zone mark and an 83 percent overall clip.

What DeBarge does well is get balls in the air to the pull side. Nearly 50 percent of his fly balls and line drives were pulled, which helped him get to the 21 home runs in college.

DeBarge ended his pro debut with a bang, collecting four hits, including his lone home run in his 26-game pro sample. He swiped 15 bases while keeping strong contact skills. The exit velocity data was fine in a small sample, as DeBarge had a 102 mph (90th percentile) and an 87 mph average exit velocity with a wood bat.

In the long term, DeBarge profiles as a hit-tool-first infielder with sneaky pop and good speed.

FYPD Avoid No. 1 - Vance Honeycutt, OF

Age 21, Baltimore Orioles, 6-foot-3/205 lbs

Honeycutt is probably the most polarizing player in the draft, having tools for days, but highly questionable contact skills. Swatting 28 home runs and stealing 28 bases this year, you won’t find a hitter with a better power/speed combo among the college crop or maybe in general. Honeycutt also posted the best slash line of his career at .318/.410/.714.

Having 70-grade clock times and a 70-grade glove in center field, you could also argue the arm is plus or better. The tools are there, but one lags: contact. Honeycutt struck out 83 times this year, good for a 27.5 percent mark.

Looking at the demographic of college first-rounders, that would be the highest strikeout rate since Kyler Murray was selected. Only Hunter Bishop (25.3 percent) and Murray (26.2 percent) are relatively close. Brice Matthews comes in at 24.9 percent from last year’s crop.

There is not a concern about Honeycutt getting to power. He posted a 93 mph average exit velocity and a 109.5 (90th percentile). He hits the ball hard regularly. When you get to contact and plate discipline, things get dicey. His overall contact rate of 68 percent is among the worst for all college hitters, and the 79 percent zone contact is better but still not ideal.

Honeycutt chased at a worse-than-average mark for college hitters and struggled to identify spin. Will it hurt him in professional ball? It is an intriguing profile and one that has as much upside as any in this draft class. But do the swing-and-miss concerns outweigh the good?

FYPD Avoid No. 2 - James Tibbs III, OF

Age 22, San Francisco Giants, 6-foot/200 lbs

Tibbs built on a great sophomore season at Florida State and then a strong Cape Cod League that summer to vault way up draft boards in 2024. Mashing 28 home runs and having 47 extra-base hits in 66 games, Tibbs cut his strikeout rate and posted a slash of .363/.488/.777.

Showing excellent plate discipline, Tibbs walked 58 times and struck out just 37. Fueled by a low chase rate of 20 percent for the second straight year, Tibbs did show significant improvements in the contact department. After making contact less than 70 percent of the time in 2023, that number jumped to nearly 80 percent in 2024. The in-zone contact also jumped from 80 to 83 percent.

Already having a good power profile, Tibbs also showed improvements, seeing a 1 mph jump in average exit velocity up to nearly 94 mph while having a 90th percentile exit velocity of almost 108 mph. Tibbs also makes the most of his swings, lifting the ball with ease and showing the ability to turn on balls to the pull side.

The frame and the glove are a bit of a question mark. Standing at a stock six feet, Tibbs may have to play first base, which puts a lot of pressure on the bat, and it would be a small first base profile. Tibbs is a risk because we are unsure if the contact gains will stick. If he moves to first base, the profile will not be interesting for fantasy purposes.

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