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Jackson Sparks identifies NFL players to sell in fantasy football dynasty leagues for 2023. These are potentially overvalued assets to avoid in keeper formats.
Buying players on the dynasty fantasy football trade block is one of the most enjoyable aspects of the formats, but knowing who to sell and when to sell them is key to staying competitive in your league. There are glaring "sells" like aging and declining veterans, but most of the managers in your league won't be willing to trade for them. That said, this article won't focus on simply trying to pawn off "old" players in their late 20s or early 30s.
However, there are plenty of players who are likely overvalued that you can ship away for a solid return and not regret it later. Using last year's stats, current perceived value, and future projections, I'll identify the top dynasty sells heading into 2023. You shouldn't simply throw these guys away for a lowball offer, but allow your league mates to overpay for guys who likely won't pay off at value.
In redraft, targeting or fading players based on their ADP is key. In a dynasty, the same principles can be used for perceived value. In other words – even if you like a player, it might be worth capitalizing off their value spike and sending them packing to a new team. Without further ado, let's dive in.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
While you definitely shouldn't give up Pierce for nothing, there could be an opportunity to "sell high" on him heading into 2023. He overperformed as a rookie in 2022, scoring 12.8 PPR fantasy points per game, but the Texans' offense likely won't be significantly better in 2023 with rookie C.J. Stroud under center. Pierce finished as the RB20 in fantasy points per game, despite handling the eighth-most touches per game. Among all running backs, Pierce ranked 47th in true yards per carry (4.0), 47th in yards per touch (4.4), 36th in breakaway run rate (4.1%), and 67th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.67). (PlayerProfiler.com data)
The workhorse running back is a dying breed, and since Pierce missed the final four games of the regular season with an ankle injury, Houston will likely dial his workload back. While Devin Singletary is far from a superstar, he presents a greater threat to take touches than any of the Texans' RBs from last season.
Ultimately, Pierce was one of the least efficient workhorse backs in 2022 and his ceiling might be in the low-end RB2 range. If a dynasty manager is convinced he's the next big star and bell cow, he's worth auctioning off. It's also worth noting he has no job security beyond 2023 since he was a day-three pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
Sanders had a resurgent season in 2022 with the Philadelphia Eagles, but he's likely to decline as the top running back for the Carolina Panthers. In Philadelphia, he played with an elite rushing quarterback behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Needless to say, running lanes came easy. Sanders posted a career-high 1,269 rushing yards and 11 rushing scores but caught a career-low 20 passes.
In Carolina, expect defenses to load the box. Bryce Young is an exciting prospect, but rookie signal-callers struggle mightily more often than not, and his pass-catching group of Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, D.J. Chark, Terrace Marshall Jr., and Hayden Hurst sets up to be one of the worst units in the NFL. That said, the offense won't generate chunk plays and easy scoring opportunities for the former Penn State running back.
There are likely to be plenty of fantasy managers who are intrigued with Sanders as a potential workhorse back, but not all RB touches are created equal, and it's tough to see a path toward a legit upside. It's worth noting the has been battling a groin injury during training camp.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Samuel posted a monster season in 2021, racking up 1,770 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns. However, he's been otherwise unspectacular during his four-year NFL career – never posting more than 961 scrimmage yards in a single campaign. Last season, Samuel finished as the WR27 in fantasy points per game and WR38 overall (PPR). In 2023, things could get even worse.
In games without Christian McCaffrey, Samuel averaged 16.4 fantasy points and roughly 90 total yards per game. With McCaffrey on the Niners and active, he dipped to 11.3 fantasy points and 52 total yards per game. His receiving ceiling was already capped by George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk competing for targets, but McCaffrey takes away some of his rushing attempts and short-yardage receiving work. He will still have some nuclear boom weeks, but the consistent production is likely a thing of the past.
Ultimately, his 2021 top-five finish appears to be a significant outlier. Fantasy managers might have already caught on to his lackluster production, but if not, it's worth seeing if you can capitalize on his name value and trade him away.
Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kadarius Toney hype train is moving loudly on the tracks this offseason, which makes this a perfect time to sell him high. He's one of the few players in dynasty formats you can "sell high" before he's even done anything and is my top sell heading into 2023.
Through two seasons, Toney has played in just 19 games, catching 55 passes for 591 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushing 10 times for 88 yards and a score. Despite the mediocre production, much of the fantasy football community is hyping him up as the next big thing in Patrick Mahomes' offense. However, his profile screams fool's gold. Would the New York Giants have traded away a young, inexpensive wide receiver for a third and sixth-round draft pick if he was truly special? It's doubtful.
More likely than not, Toney will continue to be a gadget player and fun weapon in Andy Reid's offense, but not a legitimate wide receiver. Toney failed to eclipse 25 receptions and 260 receiving yards until his senior season at Florida, so there's almost no evidence available telling us he has the juice to be the top option in a passing game. Sure, Toney will likely score a few touchdowns and have highlight-reel ankle breakers, but his profile and body of work matter more than simply "playing with Patrick Mahomes."
On top of all that, the young wideout is dealing with a lower-body injury once again. He's missed 15 games in just two NFL games.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Tight ends can often trick fantasy gamers after producing big-time numbers in a prolific offense. Schultz has been spectacular with the Dallas Cowboys over the last two seasons, but it's tough to see a path to significant upside in the context of Houston's offense. Again, the team will be led by a rookie QB and has one of the worst groups of offensive skill players in the NFL.
Going from playing with the likes of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Tony Pollard to playing with Robert Woods, Nico Collins, and Dameon Peirce will make a huge difference in Schultz's potential upside. There's a chance he's peppered with targets and will have PPR value, but he's a clear sell in all other formats.
Simply put – sustained drives, touchdown upside, and accurate targets will decline for Schultz in 2023. Since he's not an off-the-charts athlete nor a proven game-changer from the tight end spot, don't be surprised if he plummets down the dynasty rankings early in the 2023 NFL season.
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Ridder has a great cast of weapons to work with including Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson, but his growing into a legitimate fantasy asset in 2023 feels too good to be true. After the organization drafted Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick, Atlanta seems dead set on being a run-first offense, much like in 2022. Head coach Arthur Smith seemingly prefers a "game-manager" signal-caller.
Additionally, Ridder has zero job security after 2023. The former third-round pick won't get the benefit of the doubt, especially since his weapons and offensive line group should be well above league average. If the team fails to make the playoffs in the weak NFC, there's a high likelihood Smith will be fired and Atlanta will look for a new QB heading into 2024.
Ridder isn't priced highly in most leagues or formats, but there are plenty of Ridder fans out there, and selling him before his sophomore campaign looks to be a savvy move.
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