After an injury-riddled 2015 season, during which he was the number one starter for the Boston Red Sox, Buchholz and fantasy owners are hoping 2016 will be much better. The question is, do you take the right-hander?

Editor's note: Be sure to check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings and ADP analysis across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.

In Review

For years now, Buchholz has been the definition of a streaky pitcher. When he is on his game, he is great, but when he is off it, watch out. In 2013, he had 12-1 record with a 1.74 ERA in only 16 starts (he missed time due to injuries). In 2014 however, he was 8-11 with a 5.34 ERA, while again missing time due to injury. Last year, the 31-year-old rebounded with a much stronger showing, posting a 3.26 ERA, the third best of ERA of his career. Unfortunately, as you can probably guess, Buchholz season was again cut short due to injury.

While he might not be a Cy Young candidate, when healthy Buchholz can be a great pitcher. The problem is and will always be health. A few days ago, he threw his first live session since his 2015 season ended last July. That means he hadn’t thrown to batters in nearly eight months! Missing that much time is never a great sign, but both the Red Sox and Buchholz should be happy that the pitcher looked sharp and felt no pain after the session.

2016 Outlook

As for his fantasy value, the righty is currently ranked 50^th on RotoBaller’s Starting Pitcher Rankings and 172^nd overall. While Buchholz is certainly an All-Star talent when healthy, a back-up plan is always needed just in case. If you can grab him as your fifth starter and don’t mind some time missed due to injury, then Buchholz will be perfect for you. He's a good bet for 8-10 wins, with a 3.60- 4.00 ERA and 110 strikeouts. While those numbers are fine, they aren’t worthy of anything higher than a late round selection for such an average season. However, if he can stay healthy (and that’s a big if) Buchholz could have extreme sleeper potential. A healthy Buchholz is so rare, that projecting his stats for the season is extremely difficult, but it could be somewhere around 16 wins, with an ERA under 3.00 and 150 or more strikeouts. If that pitcher shows up this season, then he could end up becoming the sleeper of the year, especially since he is being taken so late in drafts.

Conclusion

The most important thing about Buchholz is to track him during spring training to see how he progresses and how he looks. If he looks like a healthy pitcher, then take a late-round flier on him. It could be one of the best decisions you make.

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