Two weeks are now in the books, and there’s more than enough to react to. Most importantly, keep your wits about you--look at who each team has gone against and who they’re about to face. For instance, Lamar Miller is a pretty clear “faller” due to his performance and now an injury, but he gets Buffalo’s strong run D next week, so maybe you can wait another week before you look at that low stock and try to buy low.

As always, try to find that perfect balance of appropriate reaction. Be the zen master. Trying to be a perfectionist in fantasy sports will drive you insane, as you won't avoid all of the disappointments and injuries, and you might tinker yourself to death.

All we can do is try to identify some recent changes in players’ stocks, and aim to be the smartest owner in the league in identifying opportunity. The working assumption here is that saying Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham Jr. types are trending up won't really help anyone. With most of the games from Week 2 in the books, we've got plenty of trends to analyze. We dive in now.

 

Post-Week 2 Fantasy Football Risers

Larry Fitzgerald – WR, Arizona Cardinals

Carson Palmer deserves a lot of love too, if he’s still sitting out there in your league you should probably go get him. Larry Fitzgerald is showing that he can still ball. Yes, the Cardinals have teed off against two bad defenses in the Saints and Bears, but their upcoming schedule shows plenty of exploitable secondary units (vs. SF, vs. STL, @DET, @PIT, vs. BAL, @CLE).

Larry Fitzgerald was the boring option coming into 2015, with hot item John Brown being stared down by everyone in their drafts. John Brown owners shouldn’t fret too much though, as he drew two long pass interference calls, and such is life for a big-play receiver in today’s NFL. Michael Floyd is clearly not part of the plan right now. Fitzgerald turned nine targets into an 8-112-3 line. I'm not keen on having most of the value tied to touchdowns, but this was a special day. 8-112-0 would still warrant attention.

Fitzgerald might fade later on in the season as the bumps and bruises accrue on his 32-year-old body, but the guy is a baller and he clearly loves to play the game of football. If you got him in your draft, you’ve been wearing a grin for a bit now. Don’t be afraid that this is all that fluky, as he is a truly great receiver that has a very good quarterback, and he has his trust. Fitzgerald is trending way up.

Amari Cooper – WR, Oakland Raiders

The worry game was strong coming out of Week 1, with the fear being that the amazing rookie wide receiver crop from last year had skewed our expectations way too far. Amari Cooper’s weak line of 5-47-0 was the best of the rookies, and the Raiders looked terrible. The Ravens were coming into Oakland in what all signs pointed to being a blowout for Baltimore.

Well that is not what happened, as many ousted survivor pool players can tell you. Derek Carr had a helluva day, and in no time Amari Cooper had a 68-yard TD to his name. Cooper showed that he has the skills, as he converted 11 targets into a 7-109-1 line. Now you might look at Michael Crabtree’s 16 targets and raise the eyebrows a bit, but we know who Crabtree is at this point, and Carr’s #1 is still Cooper. Cooper beat a stud DB in Jimmy Smith for his line, proving he is the real deal.

Derek Carr’s throws were actually pretty errant, a lot of just lofting it up and underthrowing balls into some traffic, but it was encouraging that he can still get the ball out to his receivers. The Raiders won’t put up these kind of yardage and point totals with any consistency, but Cooper’s Week 1 targets in a bad showing combined with his totals in a big game are very encouraging.

David Johnson – RB, Arizona Cardinals

Bruce Arians can prop up this “smaller role” for David Johnson thing until he’s blue in the face, but Arians can’t ignore how electric the rookie is. Chris Johnson had 20 carries to David Johnson’s five carries. DJ still turned those five carries into 42 yards and a score, and you probably saw that he opened the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown. This guy is good.

The only issue here is that Arians needs to be willing to give him the ball more, and of course that Andre Ellington will come back in a few weeks. That said, Ellington is the poster-child for getting injured, so he’s never safe to stay on the field, even when he returns. The Arizona Cardinals have a serious chance at the Super Bowl this year, and Arians needs to involve David Johnson and reward his play. You should too--you can find a roster spot for this guy if he’s still sitting on the waiver wire, as his ceiling is going to be as high as Arians will let it be. It’s possible that David Johnson falls into the same sort of category that Matt Jones (RB, WAS) is in, which is that of a great young talent that is boom-or-bust depending on if they can rip off a huge play out from a small amount of touches.

Both of those guys need to be rostered though, as they clearly have the talent. They’re just waiting on real opportunity, and when talent meets opportunity, you get championships. Bruce Arians is now saying that David Johnson’s workload will increase a little bit week-by-week, which is promising, and does jump him pretty squarely over Matt Jones.

Dion Lewis – RB, New England Patriots

If you’ve had Dion Lewis these first two weeks, you are feeling good. There’s still that uneasiness though, because it’s Bill Belichick. The Patriots rolled out another pass-heavy gameplan against the Bills in Week 2, and even though LeGarrette Blount was activated from his one-game suspension, he barely saw the field. Dion Lewis was THE guy in the New England backfield for the second week in a row, and even got red zone carries this time around. He looked great again--he's a shifty guy who can bounce around like a pinball, but knows when to hit the hole. He is making a strong case even in standard leagues now, and if you’re in PPR he is in RB2 territory now against strong rushing defenses.

I would still temper expectations though for several reasons: it’s New England, Lewis fumbled again, and because the Jaguars are next up and the game script could very easily call for a power running game led by Blount. The Patriots have Jacksonville at home in Week 3, and then a Week 4 bye. Week 6 has a date with the Colts, and well, we saw how they’ve attacked them with a power back in the past (Jonas Gray remembers, that’s for sure). After that though, they face strong defense lines in the Jets, Dolphins, Redskins. They’ll face the Bills again, the Texans, and the Jets and Dolphins in those championship weeks. Their schedule holds plenty of games where the passing back looks to have a strong chance at being the scheme. Dion Lewis looks legitimate, and if you can hold him through what looks like might be a lull in the next few weeks, the payout should be huge.

 

Other Risers To Be Aware Of:

• Allen Robinson - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars - AR-15 came back with a vengeance after a disappointing Week 1 dud. He put up a 6-155-2 line while seeing 12 targets, rewarding those who stuck with him. He will struggle if Blake Bortles can't make the throws, but Robinson is a real talent that you should feel good about owning.
• Colin Kaepernick - QB, San Francisco 49ers - Yes, he got to tee off against the Pittsburgh Steelers and their poor defense, but Kaep still put together a 33/46-335-2-0 line with nine rushes for 51 yards. His upcoming schedule isn't the prettiest, and he had to do more than San Francisco typically wants due to a Carlos Hyde injury (and Reggie Bush was still out as well), but he showed that he can handle the football and has a high ceiling when the game situation allows for it.
• Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta Falcons - While I'm not high on Freeman as a running back based on his own merit, the opportunity is clearly there while Tevin Coleman is sidelined with a rib injury. Freeman can't do much after contact, but he is an elusive runner who the Falcons should look to get into space. Look for more shotgun from Matt Ryan and company to try to utilize Freeman's skills to the fullest.
• Eric Ebron - TE, Detroit Lions - Ebron came out of Week 2 with a 5-43-1 line, but it’s the ten targets you like to see. Brandon Pettigrew was out, and it looks the Lions are finally willing to roll Ebron out there on a significant amount of snaps. Split out wide plenty of the time, Ebron showed that he can use his size to dominate over the middle. There are many tight ends emerging this year, and Ebron is making his case to be one of them.

 

Post-Week 2 Fantasy Football Fallers

Joique Bell – RB, Detroit Lions

Is it cheap to start the Fallers section with the same guy who kicked it off in Week 1? This is a quick one, because guys like the aforementioned David Johnson and Matt Jones really look more worthy of a roster spot than Joique Bell does. Bell missing much of training camp might point to him being more “eased in” rather than being outright “played out”, but no matter the rationale, the latter appears to be happening. Joique Bell had four rushes for all of two yards, and two receptions for 16 yards. You can find much better out there, and while the Lions should do better on the ground moving forward, Ameer Abdullah was the leader in carries for the second week in a row and easily looks like a stud RB in the making. There’s no reason for Detroit to give Bell enough carries to be worthy of a fantasy start, and you can do better with that roster spot. Don’t buy low. Don’t dream of last year. Move on.

Philadelphia Eagles Offense – OL, QB, RB, WR, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

We’ll use the same blanket blurb that the Broncos deserved last week, and the Saints might have been here but the Eagles then fell on their faces in the afternoon games. Seriously though, people are (rightfully) pulling their hair out. Chip Kelly noted that the entire offense is under the microscope, and no one is safe. Before dicing up the guys who are fantasy relevant, the offensive line needs to be put on blast. What in the world could Demarco Murray do other than lose yards when he’s being attacked five yards behind the line of scrimmage as soon as he gets the rock? They “didn’t need” Evan Mathis though. Sure. It’s difficult to evaluate your guys when the whole team is floundering.

That said, we have a job to do anyway. Sam Bradford doesn’t look like he can effectively run the read-option offense. Demarco Murray doesn’t look like the same RB we’re used to seeing when Chip Kelly wants him to run like LeSean McCoy outside of the tackles. Jordan Matthews got his garbage time points to salvage the day, but he and Nelson Agholor were getting missed left and right all game it seemed. Darren Sproles looks decent, probably because he’s more WR than RB and apparently Bradford can hit that flat route, so Sproles gets his when the running game puts Philly in a 2^nd and 14 or 3^rd and 17 hole. Zach Ertz isn’t doing enough in 2015 to warrant attention, as there just too many tight ends going off so far this year to wait onErtz.

Charles Johnson – WR, Minnesota Vikings

While he can’t be entirely written off just yet, things are not looking promising for Johnson’s 2015. He was a hot commodity coming in, and plenty of people (myself included) were feeling good about him. It would appear that Teddy Bridgewater and Mike Wallace have a good thing going (both Wallace and Johnson had three targets in Week 2, though Wallace got 38 yards from them and Johnson only got ten), and Kyle Rudolph saw seven targets. I would feel comfortable stashing Charles Johnson if someone panicked and dropped him and I had a roster spot to play with.

If your roster can stomach it during the early bye weeks, the Vikings should hit their stride in Week 7 in a rematch with Lions. Until then, they face the Broncos, a bye week, and then the Chiefs in Weeks 4-6. Those are tough defenses. Johnson might be had free of charge before then as he is undeniably trending downwards, but do keep him in mind.

Jeremy Hill – RB, Cincinnati Bengals

It’s very concerning to see Jeremy Hill struggle to hold onto the ball and just lack any real giddy-up when he gets the ball. Making things worse, Giovani Bernard is looking really good. Hill was benched for Bernard in Week 2 after his second fumble. So far ProFootballFocus gives Bernard a 2.5 rating, while Hill is sporting a 0.7 rating. Bernard has a 6.6 YPC to Hill’s 3.4 YPC. This won’t hold all year, but coaches can’t ignore it. As of now, Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson said that Hill will be put back in, and that Sunday’s game is “over and done with”. Now I’m sure everyone is familiar with “coachspeak” and votes of confidence, but Hill definitely doesn’t have the same aura about him that he did at the beginning of the season. That being said, he’s still very talented and won’t disappear. A 50/50 split is the floor scenario here for Hill owners.

The worst part is now the really scary part of the schedule starts. The Bengals are about to start a stretch against the Ravens, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Bills--yikes. Hill has had fumble issues for most of his career, and his stock will plummet so long as he puts the ball on the ground and Bernard does his job. You’re absolutely not cutting him, but his value has taken a few gut punches going into Week 3 and beyond.

 

Other Fallers To Be Aware Of:

• Roddy White - WR, Atlanta Falcons - Roddy put up a fat goose egg in Week 2, only seeing one target as Leonard Hankerson burst onto the scene as the clear second choice for the Falcons with eleven targets. Perhaps White is actually dealing with an injury, but Hankerson looked very good out there, albeit against the Giants porous pass defense. Roddy White won't disappear, but it doesn't look like he'll be more than a low-end WR3/flex play in good matchups.
• Lamar Miller - RB, Miami Dolphins - Boy, this one hurts. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor doesn't seem to utilize the running back well, but Lamar Miller is doing himself zero favors, earning a -1.6 PFF grade so far in 2015. The offensive line is struggling for Miami, which helps nothing, but you just wait a few weeks. Week 3 is against Buffalo, Week 4 is against the Jets, and Week 5 is their bye. I'll probably be looking to buy during the bye (ha), but the proverbial magic eight ball says the outlook isn't good right now.
• Alex Smith - QB, Kansas City Chiefs - Week 1 was very nice for Alex Smith, and while I don't think anyone was viewing him as their QB1 this year, Week 2 was still a harsh reality check for Smith. The Denver Broncos boast a very good defense and they dashed any dreams that Smith owners might have had that he could be anything more than a streamer.
• Jimmy Graham - TE, Seattle Seahawks - Another early-round disappointment so far, Graham only got two targets in a big game against the Packers, ending up with one catch for 11 yards. I believe Graham and Russell Wilson will find a rhythm, and they will start to run the read option close to the end zone and try to find Graham as defenses key in on Lynch and Wilson as the first two reads. On paper, that sounds lovely, but it's hard to believe it until you see it on the field. Since we haven't seen it yet, his stock is definitely falling, and that ADP of his hasn't been justified in the least so far.

 

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