RADIO
The Indianapolis Colts are firmly in the conversation for the most fantasy relevant team in the entire NFL. Between them, the Packers, Steelers, Broncos, and a few others, they possess some of the most obvious automatic starters in any sized league. There are few teams that can afford to lose talent at skill positions and actually bring in automatic upgrades. Both wide receiver Andre Johnson and running back Frank Gore fall into that category as players who can aid Andrew Luck in putting together another fantastic year in Indianapolis.
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Andre Johnson, WR Phillip Dorsett, RB Frank Gore, RB Josh Robinson
No Longer on the Roster: WR Reggie Wayne, WR Hakeem Nicks, RB Trent Richardson, RB Ahmad Bradshaw
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Quarterback
My analysis on Andrew Luck is going to be extremely similar to that of Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers in that the two of them are in a fantasy tier all by themselves. They are locked in as the number one and two fantasy QBs in either order you’d like to put them in. Luck is coming off of his best year to date in his short three-year career, finishing 2014 with 4,761 yards and 40 touchdowns. His completion percentage has also improved from year-to-year, going from 54.1% as a rookie, 60.2% in 2013, and 61.7% this past season. He’s clearly and definitively a growing superstar in the NFL.
When it comes to fantasy, figuring out when to grab (or not grab) a top flight QB could be the determining factor in your playoff hopes. Both Luck and Rodgers hold more value in deeper leagues given the fact that there are less superstar quarterbacks to go around but that doesn’t mean they aren’t still major assets in standard sized formats. Whichever you guy prefer, you should feel comfortable snagging him in the mid-to-late second round but the key is to not lock yourself into specific strategy. Let the draft come to you in that you shouldn’t dismiss the idea of taking a QB early just because the position is deep. On the flip side, don’t become infatuated with the idea that you need one of the top passers in the league in order to win fantasy just because they score the most points. Value is important too so remember to balance that out with point totals.
Again, like with Rodgers, this may seem like simple advice but it’s an important thing to keep in mind. There are far too many fantasy teams that falter because they locked themselves into a strategy, quarterback or otherwise, and miss out on a talented player because they didn’t let the draft come to them.
Wide Receivers
Andrew Luck’s primary passing option last season was that of T.Y. Hilton who finished the year with 1,345 yards and seven touchdowns. Those numbers were good enough to just barely push him into the top-10 in fantasy at the position.
There seem to be two primary knocks on Hilton that tend to get blown out of proportion. The first is rather simple in that the Colts are such a potent offense that they have too many mouths to feed, resulting in fantasy owners steering clear from Hilton as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2. The second claim, which is semi-related to that, is the idea that the addition of Andre Johnson (who we’ll get to in a minute) will negate a lot of Hilton’s production. These are both valid points but allow me to clarify them a bit further.
The “too many mouths” to feed argument is one that directly correlates to the fact that Hilton is an up-and-down player in general. He’s more of a big-play receiver than a possession guy so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’ll follow up a 24-yard performance with that of 122. Or that he’ll have a stretch of 223, 107, and 155 yard outings after failing to hit the 100+ yard mark in the first three games of the season. That’s just the nature of his game. In fact, both the “too many mouths” to feed phrasing and his up-and-down play are already built into his ranking. Most rankers slot him right in that 10-12 range and that’s fine. If he was more consistent or Andrew Luck had less weapons, he’d be even higher.
Lastly, Andre Johnson shouldn’t be viewed as a threat to T.Y. Hilton’s production at all. They’re very different players and Hilton managed to be the 10th best fantasy receiver last year on just 130 targets. That’s tied for 16th in the NFL. You know who else had 130 targets last year? Anquan Boldin. You know who had a whopping 143, tied for the eighth most? Vincent Jackson. If that’s not enough to convince you that Hilton is a reliable fantasy option, I can’t help you.
Speaking of Andre Johnson, he departs from a Houston Texans team that had essentially replaced him with DeAndre Hopkins as the number one passing option. The departure of both Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks means that that Johnson should automatically get the bulk of their targets. Wayne alone had 116 with Nicks ending up with 70. That’s 186 targets now up for grabs. Obviously Andre Johnson isn’t going to just waltz right in and take all 186 of them. Some will go to Indy’s tight ends and other receivers but why can’t Hilton and Andre each end up with 130? That would still leave 56 additional targets to spread around accordingly.
Last year alone Andre Johnson turned 147 targets into 936 yards and three touchdowns with the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum throwing him the ball. Say what you want about Johnson’s age but lets face facts here, Andrew Luck is by far the best quarterback he’s ever played with. I expect Andre to have a huge bounce back year and end up as a solid WR2 in any format with an added boost in PPR leagues.
Running Backs
Prior to getting injured, running back Ahmad Bradshaw was actually stringing together an RB2/flex-worthy season on a team where his only true competition was that of Trent Richardson. With both running backs gone, the Colts brought in Frank Gore formerly of the San Francisco 49ers. It feels like people have been counting out Frank “Goonies Never Say Die” Gore for years yet even at 32, he should still be treated as a legit RB2. (I used that nickname obsessively last year. I don’t care if it never catches on, I still like it.) To be honest, that’s really the only reason to not like him. He’s old. That’s it. He doesn’t carry any sort of injury concerns, he doesn’t need to be in a certain system to be effective, and he’s never really been inconsistent.
Even if I were to concede to the notion that a 32-year old running back can’t produce quality fantasy numbers, you cannot convince me that Frank Gore in 2015 is worse than Ahmad Bradshaw in 2014. Gore is coming off of four consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 yards. Bradshaw hasn’t hit that mark since 2012 and has only ever done it twice. If Bradshaw’s 425 yards over 10 games can put him in the RB2 conversation, surely Gore can do better. In fact, I would argue that the Indianapolis Colts of 2015 might be the best offense Gore has ever even played with. Between Andrew Luck under center and T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson at wide receiver, it’s not like Gore will have to worry about defenses stacking the box. He’ll get all of the work and will have plenty of red zone opportunities given how potent this offense is. Basically, ranking Gore as a top-15 back is a no brainer and I’d be ecstatic with him as my second RB.
I know there’s the mindset that the Colts throw the ball too much to produce a consistent fantasy running back but the team still finished in the middle of the pack in rushing attempts. They ranked 17th with 415. For some added context, the three teams ranked directly ahead of them were the Kansas City Chiefs, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Green Bay Packers. All three of those teams not only produced fantasy relevant running backs but Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell, and Eddie Lacy are all in the discussion for number one overall this year. Obviously I’m not suggesting Frank Gore belongs in the same class as them, I’m merely suggesting not to worry about volume. Production is what matters and the possibility of 12-15 touchdowns in Indy’s offense boosts Gore’s value considerably.
Tight Ends
The Colts feature two fantasy relevant tight ends in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. Here’s where the “too many mouths to feed” philosophy finally starts to show face. Despite Fleener outperforming Allen last season (774 yards to 395 albeit with Allen missing three games), Allen is viewed as the more talented of the two. Allen frequently ranks well ahead of Fleener among tight ends, typically finding himself toward the back end of the top-12. With very little separation among that last group of potential TE starters, I’m probably going to end up with one that isn’t on the Colts. Between Hilton, Johnson, Gore, and the fact that there are two of these guys, this is a situation you’re better served avoiding. I’m sure one or even both of these players will put up solid numbers but I don’t see any reason why to value one considerably higher than the other.
Rookies
Finally, the Colts selected running back Josh Robinson out of Mississippi State in the sixth round of the draft. Robinson certainly won’t eat into Gore’s workload that much but he does become an interesting handcuff option in the event that Gore gets hurt. I know I didn’t mention presumed backups Dan Herron or Vick Ballard in the running back section but that’s because I think Josh Robinson is a real threat to number two spot on the depth chart. All three will likely see the field in some capacity but Robinson has the most upside in the event the starter goes down. Herron and Ballard weren’t reliable fantasy options when given the opportunity last year anyway so the rookie is actually an upgrade.
You might have also noticed that I left Donte Moncrief out of the wide receiver section. That’s because I think his target total might be cut in half by rookie Phillip Dorsett out of the University of Miami. Dorsett has been impressive this summer and the Colts are having him compete with Moncrief for the number three receiver spot. I think these two might cancel each other out for fantasy purposes but keep an eye on Dorsett in a year or two.
Summary
Yowza that was a meaty preview huh? As I’m sure you’ve surmised, there’s a lot going on in Indianapolis these days and that’s a good thing. This is a team that will produce on a consistent basis, netting you fantasy goodness across the board. The only position that makes me nervous is tight end but honestly, either guy is at worst a bye week fill-in anyway. Grab yourself a Colt and enjoy the show.
