RADIO
The Seattle Seahawks made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by acquiring tight end Jimmy Graham from the New Orleans Saints. Despite being a fairly heavy run-based offense, this is a team that needed a big pass catching option, a void that should easily be filled with Graham. Between Graham, Russell Wilson, and Marshawn Lynch, this is an offense that continues to expand it’s fantasy production.
Offseason Acquisitions: TE Jimmy Graham, WR Tyler Lockett
No Longer on the Roster: TE Zach Miller, TE Tony Moeaki, WR Percy Harvin
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Quarterback
With Russell Wilson recently signing a four-year $87 million deal, Seahawks can breathe easy as a big part of their future is locked up. Wilson has exceeded expectations in his first three years as the starter both in real-life football and fantasy. His 3,475 passing yards and 20 touchdowns were aided by 849 yards on the ground, numbers that were good enough to net him the third best fantasy season among quarterbacks last year. It should also be noted that his interception total has gone down in each of his first three years, starting with 10 as a rookie, nine in 2013, and seven this past season. Wilson has developed into a solid NFL quarterback that plays in a system that’s beneficial for both him as a player and as a fantasy option.
Projecting forward to 2015, Wilson is often in the discussion with Peyton Manning as the second tier of fantasy quarterbacks. After Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, you can make a case for either Wilson or Peyton as the number three QB off the board. Wilson’s detractors would argue that the team doesn’t throw the ball enough to rely on him as a fantasy star and that his ability to rush out of the pocket was unusually high last year. The first part of the argument is warranted as the Seahawks were dead last in passing attempts in 2014 with 454. If anything, Wilson’s scrambling ability sort of made up for that fact.
While I don’t think 849 rushing yards from a quarterback is repeatable (no QB has ever had that many rushing yards in back-to-back seasons), I do think Wilson can make up for this team’s low passing total in other ways. The addition of Jimmy Graham impacts Wilson the most such that he’s easily the best pass-catching option Wilson’s ever had. Percy Harvin could have been that guy but it never really materialized. Graham is a big target who is a red zone and touchdown machine. I believe the addition of Graham is where Wilson will make up for a decrease in rushing. He should be the player Wilson targets most, adding several touchdowns to his passing total.
So where should you draft a guy like Russell Wilson? As much as I like him in 2015, I do think the third and fourth quarterbacks are going a bit high in fantasy drafts for my liking. A late third round pick seems like a lot to invest in a quarterback that only outscored Ben Roethlisberger by exactly one point-per-game. I know 17 points can be viewed as a big difference but it’s not like Wilson and Ben are going in the same round. Roethlisberger’s ADP is considerably lower so why not wait another two rounds or so and stock up on running backs and wide receivers? Again, I like Wilson as a fantasy option; I just think he’s overvalued. If he falls to me, great, but I’ll let someone else reach for him in round three or four while I’m snatching up the likes of Lamar Miller and Brandin Cooks.
Wide Receivers
When a tight end who hasn’t taken one snap with his new team is your best pass-catching option, there’s a good chance your wide receiver corps looks pretty bleak. The Seahawks will trot out the likes of Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, two players who weren’t fantasy relevant in 2014. Baldwin was the more effective of the two but even still, he finished outside the top-40 at the position. Both players are ranked outside the top-50 for this season and with good reason. Jimmy Graham will hoard the majority of the targets and besides, neither of these guys were reliable of fantasy options before Graham got there anyway. If you’re looking for something to steer clear of in reference to the Seahawks not throwing the ball enough, it’s the team’s wide receivers.
Baldwin, Seattle’s leading receiver last year, finished with 825 yards on 66 receptions via 98 targets. You know who had better receiving numbers than that across the board? Running back Le’Veon Bell. Yea. A running back. I rest my case.
Running Backs
By now you’ve likely realized that projecting the top five running backs for 2015 involves a lot of nitpicking. The top five are pretty much set with Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, and Seattle Seahawks own Marshawn Lynch. The nitpicking isn’t so much about who belongs in the top five but rather what order to put them in. Lynch has been ranked anywhere from one to five, all fair rankings. He’s been nothing but consistent over the past four seasons, missing just one game over that span and never dipping below 1,200 yards or 11 touchdowns. He has very much earned his moniker of Beast Mode, a true workhorse back that can plow through defenders at will.
Despite being at the dreaded age for running backs at 29, I actually think Marshawn Lynch is the safest option within the top five. Adrian Peterson has the benefit of being the best back in the NFL based on talent and his career long production, Le’Veon Bell is still a growing superstar with tons of potential, Jamaal Charles has the most “big play” ability, and Eddie Lacy is on the most potent offense. The Seahawks will utilize the ground game heavily as evidenced by their 525 rushing attempts last season, 280 of which went through Lynch, and that high usage and consistency is what gives him his value- despite not having the same kind of upside as the others top running backs.
There’s a common misconception that Marshawn Lynch’s PPR value is muted because he doesn’t catch enough passes. That’s actually sort of a crutch argument. Lynch has finished the last two seasons with 36 and 37 receptions. That’s not a high total by any means but as a comparison, Arian Foster had 38 last season. Prior to his groin injury, Foster was viewed as a back whose value gets a boost in PPR formats. I know the theory behind that is that Foster is more of a pass-catching back but if that’s enough to BOOST Foster’s value, surely Lynch’s 37 receptions can’t HURT him. Lynch doesn’t do enough in the passing game to increase his PPR value but he contributes enough for his ranking as a top five back to hold. It neither helps nor hurts him.
I have Lynch slotted fourth overall, just ahead of Eddie Lacy. Again, you can justify those five backs in any order but know that if you end up with Lynch, you’re likely getting the safest player of the bunch. Him being 29 shouldn’t scare you as long as you realize he has less upside than the other running backs in his tier.
Tight Ends
Even though the Seahawks haven’t been able to get tight end position to produce under Pete Carroll, it’s not like they’re bringing Graham in to use him as a decoy. There are reports that Graham is excited about the prospect of blocking for Seattle’s ground game, a tidbit you can take to mean he’s going to be on the field virtually all the time. Like I said before, Graham is going to come in and start hoarding targets immediately, especially in the red zone. His touchdown numbers are the most repeatable aspect of his game when you consider his size and athleticism. At 6 foot 7 and 270 pounds, Graham is almost impossible to defend in the end zone.
Certainly moving from New Orleans to Seattle is a step down in terms of offense and usage but that’s already built into Graham’s ranking. If he were still a member of the Saints, we’d be talking about him as an early second rounder. Instead, he’s typically slotted around 30th or so. Either way, Graham is firmly entrenched as the number two tight end in fantasy. If I’m picking toward the top of the draft, I have no problem going running back, wide receiver, Graham, ensuring that I have a solidly balanced team. It’s rare for a team’s tight end to be their number one receiving option so don’t be afraid to take advantage of that for fantasy purposes.
Rookies
I lied. There is one wide receiver that peaks my interest on this team and it’s rookie Tyler Lockett out of Kansas State. Locket has impressed with his quickness and route running, skills that are obviously essential in becoming a productive wide receiver. I don’t think Lockett is the type of rookie that will come in and automatically put up fantasy numbers but he’s an interesting name to monitor. You likely won’t have to draft him in order to own him as he is technically competing for the number three spot on the depth chart. Still, this is a team that has room for a breakout wide receiver and with Baldwin and Kearse being moot, Lockett’s path to relevance isn’t all that complicated.
Summary
The two-time defending NFC champions should continue to produce on the field, netting us a guaranteed starter at three different positions. There’s often talk about what the best trio in football is with teams like the Steelers and Packers having a legit claim to the throne. You should expect the trio of Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and Jimmy Graham to challenge for that spot in 2015.
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