March Madness Strategy: 10 Tips For Filling Out A Winning NCAA Tournament Bracket

March 18, 2025

Joey Pollizze's top-10 2025 NCAA Tournament tips and winning strategies for filling out a bracket. His top 10 tips and strategies to win your bracket group.

Most people don't know where to start when filling out a bracket. With 68 teams in the field, it can be very overwhelming to figure out which teams will advance through each round. The four No. 1 seeds in each region are the Auburn Tigers, Duke Blue Devils, Florida Gators, and Houston Cougars. Most brackets will pick one of these winners to win it all. Sometimes, though, the best teams don't always win.

In this article, we will go through the best tips to know when filling out your brackets. These tips include which teams could win the National Championship in April, which teams will be on upset watch in the first round, and which double-digit seeds could make a run to the Sweet 16.

So, let's dive in and go through 10 tips before you fill out your March Madness bracket.

Don't Pick A No. 15 or No. 16 Seed To Advance

Most people might entertain the idea of picking a No. 15 seed to advance to the Round of 31. No. 15 seeds have won a game in three of the past four tournaments, which included No. 15 seed Princeton beating No. 2 Arizona most recently in 2023. However, the odds are not on your side. No. 15 seeds are 11-142 all-time against No. 2 seed.

As for No. 16 seeds, save yourself the headache of choosing which No. 16 seed might upset in the first round. It has only happened two times in tournament history: when UMBC defeated Virginia in 2018 and when Fairleigh Dickinson beat Purdue in 2023. In 2024, all four No. 1 seeds won by at least 28 points in the first round. So you should pick all No. 16 seeds to lose in the first round.

Don't Hesitate To Pick A No. 13 Seed To Win Over A No. 4 Seed

No. 13 seeds have actually had some success against No. 4 seeds in the tournament. Despite winning only 21% of their total matchups against No. 4 seeds, a No. 13 seed has won at least one game in 28 of 39 tournaments and five of the past six. No. 13 seed Yale was the most recent winner, beating No. 4 Auburn in a 78-76 battle last season.

📆 March 17, 2011

Kenneth Faried & 13-seed Morehead State pulled off the upset over 4-seed Louisville 🤯pic.twitter.com/b63WF4rbcX

— FanDuel (@FanDuel) March 17, 2025

Two No. 13 seeds that could win this year are the Yale Bulldogs and the Akron Zips. Yale is an older team and will face a Texas A&M team that doesn't shoot particularly well from the field. Akron is a great three-point shooting team, and if they are on, they could upset Arizona in the first round. Picking both to advance, though, might be risky since it has only happened five times that two No. 13 seeds have advanced in the first round.

Pick At Least One (Maybe Two) No. 12 Seed To Upset A No. 5 Seed

The No. 12 versus No. 5 matchup has become a classic upset pick for many people. Although No. 12 seeds have only won 35% of their matchups against No. 5 seeds, at least one upset always occurs. A No. 12 seed has won at least one game in six of the past eight tournaments. In addition, two No. 12 seeds have advanced in the same tournament in two of the past three years. 

Now, picking which No. 12 seed will win will be tough because all four have a shot at winning in the Round of 64. UC San Diego ranks 36th overall on KemPom, Colorado State is favored over No. 5 Memphis, Liberty has a top-80 offense and defense on KemPom, and McNeese has only lost one game since late December. So, pick at least one of these teams to advance.

Pick At Least One First Four Winner To Win In The Round Of 64

Since introducing the First Four games back in 2011, teams that win on either Tuesday or Wednesday have usually had some success in the tournament. At least one first four team has gone on to the Round of 32 in four straight NCAA Tournaments and 12 of 13 tournaments overall. Keep in mind, though, that both first four winners have never won in the first round in the same year.

The four teams that could advance in this year's tournament are San Diego State, North Carolina, Xavier, and Texas. San Diego State will go head-to-head against North Carolina on Tuesday, and the winner of that game will see an Ole Miss team that ranks 300th in rebounds per game. Then, Xavier will take on Texas on Wednesday with the opportunity to face a very inconsistent Illinois team in the first round.

Pick Around Eight To 11 Lower Seeds To Win In The Round Of 64

Every year is going to be different when creating your bracket. There might be more upsets in one year than another, but plenty of lower seeds will win in the first round. As you are filling out your bracket, picking between eight to 11 lower seeds to advance is a good number to shoot for. That means you should be picking eight to 11 winners from these six seeds (nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14).

In 2022, 10 lower seeds won in the first round. Although that number dropped to seven in 2023, 11 lower seeds won in the Round of 64 last year. While every tournament and season is different, this is a nice tip to know when deciding how many lower seeds you should pick to advance in your brackets. 

Pick A No.7/No. 10 Seed To Beat A No. 2 Seed In The Round Of 32

Although it's tough to choose who will win the four different No. 7 versus No. 10 matchups, picking at least one to beat a No. 2 seed in the Round of 32 is almost a must. These two seeds have collectively upset the No. 2 seed 46 times since 1994, and the No. 7 seed over the No. 2 seed has been the most frequent upset of the second round. A No. 2 seed has been defeated by a No. 7/No. 10 seed in three of the past four tournaments.

Could we see the No. 7 seed Marquette Golden Eagles get some revenge against the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans in the second round? The last time these two teams played was when the No. 7 seed Michigan State beat the No. 2 seed Marquette in 2023. Another team that could upset is No. 10 seed Arkansas. The Razorbacks could face a St. John's team that ranks 342nd in three-point field goal percentage (30.4%). 

Pick At Least One Double-Digit Seed To Go The Sweet 16

The easy part is knowing that at least one double-digit seed has gone to the Sweet 16 in 16 consecutive tournaments. In 2023, it was the No. 15 seed Princeton, and last year, it was the No. 11 seed NC State. The Wolfpack beat No. 6 Texas Tech in the first round before advancing to the Final Four for the fourth time in the program's history. 

NO. 11 NC STATE UPSETS NO. 2 MARQUETTE TO ADVANCE TO THE ELITE 8 🚨 pic.twitter.com/GsspVMD5Ua

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 30, 2024

The hard part, though, is picking the double-digit seed correctly. There are 24 teams to pick from, but we can start to eliminate several seeds. The No. 16, No. 15, No. 14, and No. 13 seeds have only combined for 11 Sweet 16 appearances. That essentially leaves us with 12 teams to choose from across the No. 10, No. 11, and No. 12 seeds. Teams like Drake, VCU, and Colorado State could be this year's double-digit representatives. 

Don't Pick All No. 1 Seeds To Go To The Final Four

Although the No. 1 seeds are the best teams in the country, you shouldn't pick all four to make it to the Final Four. The only time that happened in the NCAA Tournament was back in 2008 when North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, and Kansas all made it as No. 1 seeds. However, it hasn't happened since. 

Picking three No. 1 seeds to go to the Final Four is also not in your favor. This has happened just five times in tournament history, and the most recent one was back in 2015 when Duke, Wisconsin, and Kentucky all made it. So, be careful when choosing which No. 1 seeds will advance to the Final Four. There is a good shot that two of these No. 1 seeds (Duke, Auburn, Florida, and Houston) will make it to San Antonio. 

Pick a Champion That Ranks Top-40 on Offense and Top-25 On Defense on KemPom

The most important tip to know when filling your bracket is to pick a champion that ranked top-40 on offense and top-25 defense on KemPom in the regular season. That's because every national champion since 2002 has fit this criteria. Teams like Baylor (2021), Kansas (2022), and UConn (2023 and 2024) all did. Even that No. 7 seed UConn team that won it all during 2014 had these numbers offensively and defensively. 

Therefore, your champion should be a team that fits this criterion. This season, there are 12 teams that meet those standards: Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan State, Iowa State, Maryland, Clemson, Marquette, Louisville, and UCLA. So, consider this when choosing which team you think will be cutting down the nets in April. 

Have Fun And Don't Overthink It 

At the end of the day, no one knows what's truly going to happen in these games. After all, anything can happen in March. Very few people predicted NC State to make it to the Final Four last season or No. 9 seed FAU to make it the year before. So, just have fun creating your brackets and go with your gut. This is the best time of the year, and you should enjoy every minute of it. Good luck with your brackets! 

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