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Corey Kluber led off last week’s buys. If you took that advice to heart and were able to strike a deal, you’re sitting pretty after his dazzling 18-strikeout performance against the Cardinals. That’s assuming you didn’t bench him against one of the best teams in baseball, as many Kluber owners did. Obviously you can’t predict or expect historic performances like that, but both Kluber and Chris Sale (who I nearly included in last week’s buys as well) showed in their last starts why aces deserve the benefit of the doubt. Leading off the buys this week is another example.
Starting Pitcher Buys for Week 7
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Tough to fathom how a guy with a double-digit K rate and FIP under 3.00 for his career can be considered an underachiever in any way, but that’s the situation for Strasburg. Much like his teammate Bryce Harper, feverish hype raised expectations to the level of insanity. After Strasburg led the National League in strikeouts last season, though, you could make a persuasive argument that those expectations were being met.
Unfortunately for fantasy owners, his season thus far has been ugly. While the usual bad luck indicators are there and his velocity is fine, it’s also clear that Strasburg simply isn’t himself right now. According to Nationals pitching coach Steve McCatty, the problem is altered mechanics. Strasburg suffered a minor ankle injury in spring training and McCatty believes that Strasburg has not yet been able to return to his normal delivery in games. In the absence of strong evidence to the contrary, Strasburg’s health isn’t an issue. He should be able to make the necessary adjustment soon. If you can take advantage of a rival’s frustration and get him at a discount, pull the trigger.
In his last three starts, Wood has pitched 16 innings and allowed 11 runs. However, he’s also got a 19:4 K/BB ratio in that span, an encouraging development after a 12:10 mark in his first four turns. Wood’s improvement of late has been undermined and masked by ludicrous BABIPs. Granted, the Braves are one of the worst defensive teams in baseball to this point even with Andrelton Simmons’ usual superhuman efforts at shortstop. Still, some positive regression seems like a good bet. Wood was a trendy pick coming into the season, and there may not be a better opportunity to buy than right now.
Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
Buchholz is maddeningly inconsistent from season to season, and he’s been Jekyll and Hyde from start to start this year. That said, it’s hard to ignore a K/9 in the double digits. Buchholz’s ugly 5.73 ERA is nearly double his FIP thanks to the usual suspects, BABIP and strand rates that simply aren’t sustainable. It’s too early to tell if the huge bump in strikeouts is legitimate improvement or just noise, but there are some reasons to be optimistic. Hitters are chasing - and missing - a lot more than they have against Buchholz in the past, and he’s definitely changed his approach in terms of pitch selection. His batted ball data is more or less in line with previous years as well, so that .393 BABIP should be on the way down soon enough. And seeing as Buchholz is only owned in 30% of Yahoo leagues, for most owners he’ll merely cost a roster spot. At the very least, he’s worth monitoring.
Starting Pitcher Sells for Week 7
Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
Leake is a league-average starter with a mediocre strikeout rate. That means that he’s usually a streaming option at best, unless you’re in a deep league or something has gone horribly wrong. Right now, though, he’s rocking a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. You probably know what’s coming next: There’s absolutely nothing in his performance to support those numbers. He’s essentially the same pitcher he’s always been, and actually is striking out even fewer batters than usual. Only two starters currently have a larger gap between their ERA and FIP than Leake. It’s tougher than it used to be to sell high on middling pitchers with sparkling ERAs, but that’s the only play that makes sense.
Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
Unlike Leake, Wacha has a good track record and name value. While that makes him more likely to be an asset moving forward, there are some concerning trends emerging in his peripherals. The big one is K/9, where he’s posted a Fisteresque 4.42 mark through his first half-dozen starts. Sure, the ERA and WHIP are great, and he’s 5-0. But that strikeout rate really takes a chunk out of his value in Roto leagues with an innings cap. It’s still early, but Wacha seems to be pitching to contact a lot more than usual. So far it’s worked out in his favor, but when that .233 BABIP inevitably rises, the lack of whiffs will become a serious problem. There have also been rumblings that the Cardinals could go to a six-man rotation to keep Wacha and Carlos Martinez from throwing too many innings.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
Teheran was nearly listed as a sell last week, but given his sluggish start, it was hard to imagine a lot of demand for his services. He's since turned in another clunker. So why advocate a sell? Simply put, there’s not much to like in what we’ve seen from Teheran so far. I was quite bearish on him coming into the season and he’s done nothing to change that outlook. The homers will almost certainly normalize a bit, but his walk rate has doubled, his velocity remains a concern, and he’s still a fly ball pitcher on a team with lousy outfield defense. Well, his fly balls are down this year, but he’s replaced them entirely with line drives. Not a good trade. Flipping him to some sucker, though? That’d be a good trade for you.
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