WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 7 (2024)

October 20, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 7 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 7 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

NEW UPDATE: Here's a Sortable Week 7 WR/CB Matchup Chart. It's viewable on desktop and mobile, but better on a desktop or laptop.

Favorable WR/CB Matchups Chart

Below, we'll see the most favorable WR/CB matchups for Week 7. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

Unfavorable WR/CB Matchups Chart

Since WR/CB matchups tend to be nuanced and complex, it may not be a perfect match for the real-time matchups during the game. The visual below shows the unfavorable Week 7 WR/CB matchups.

If a receiver struggles in the first several weeks, it will impact their weekly matchup scores after adjusting their respective score based on the weighted averages. That mainly means we should temper expectations based on the WR/CB matchups and team context.

Week 7 WR/CB Matchups: Best Offensive Adjusted Scores

Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best offensive adjusted score.

Week 7 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Diontae Johnson vs. Benjamin St-Juste

Since Week 3 when Andy Dalton became quarterback, Diontae Johnson ranks 12th in PPR/G (18.3), with the fourth-best expected points per game at 17.9. From Weeks 3-6, Johnson trails Malik Nabers (24.7), Garrett Wilson (21.9), and Drake London (19.1) in EP/G. That indicates Johnson possesses a WR1 role and opportunity.

Johnson faces a Commanders secondary allowing the fifth-most fantasy points out wide and fifth-highest to the slot. Benjamin St-Juste allows the fourth-most fantasy points per route and eighth-highest yards per route run. Not that fantasy managers needed encouragement to start Johnson, but he should have another boom game in Week 7.

Jordan Addison vs. Carlton Davis III (or Khalil Dorsey)

We'll preface this with Carlton Davis III missed Wednesday's practice because of a quad injury, and Khalil Dorsey may fill in. If there's one team to target in the secondary, it's been the Lions since they allow the ninth-most fantasy points out wide and the most fantasy points to the slot. Carlton Davis III allows the seventh-most fantasy points per route and the ninth-most yards per route run. The downside scenario involves Justin Jefferson dominating with little left for other pass-catchers. Let's unpack that.

The Lions use Cover 1 and Cover 4 at the fourth-highest rate. Unsurprisingly, Jefferson dominates with a 42 percent targets per route run rate (No. 3) and 6.14 yards per route run (No. 2) against Cover 1. Meanwhile, Addison averages an 18 percent target rate with 2.00 yards per route run against Cover 1, ranking third on the Vikings in each stat.

Against Cover 4, Jefferson has the highest targets per route run (39 percent) and fifth in yards per route run. Addison is a bit worse against Cover 4 than Cover 1. That's evident by Addison's 22 percent targets per route run rate and 0.56 yards per route run versus Cover 4. We'll note we're dealing with small samples since Addison only played three games in 2024.

Since the Lions play the fourth-highest rate of man coverage, Addison needs to win by creating separation on his own. The data points to a mixed bag. Addison ranks first in Fantasy Points Average Separation Score, ahead of Brandon Aiyuk, Malik Heath, Nico Collins, and Jalen Nailor among receivers with 25 routes. However, Addison performs better against zone defenses, with a 24 percent targets per route run rate (No. 12) and 2.07 yards per route run rate (No. 13).

Addison saw a volume uptick in Week 5 before the bye week with the second-highest target share in a game of his career. We'll want a piece of the Vikings and Lions game with the third- or fourth-highest over/under in Week 7 at 49.5.

Noah Brown vs. Mike Jackson

We didn't think we'd be discussing Noah Brown again after three boom performances as a WR1 averaging 24.6 PPR/G with the Texans. Mike Jackson allows the 12th-most fantasy points per route and 14th-most yards per route run. Guess who leads the Commanders in yards per route run? It's Brown at 2.45 (No. 6), ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus (2.16) and Terry McLaurin (2.09) inside the top 10 in yards per route run.

However, Brown's usage tells us to temper expectations, with a 38.5 percent route rate and 12.8 percent target share. Like Brown's YPRR numbers, he rocks a high-end 26 percent targets per route run rate (No. 9). Over the past three weeks, Brown's route percentage increased to 59 percent, ranking third on the team behind McLaurin (78.1 percent), Zach Ertz (71.9 percent), and ahead of Luke McCaffrey (49.1 percent).

The Panthers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers out wide while being mostly a run funnel. That's evident in Carolina's defense ranking eighth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt, with the second-lowest pass rate over expected (-6.8 percent). We know the Commanders have the seventh-highest rush rate at 49 percent, which will bode well for the ground game against the Panthers.

The Panthers use the highest rate of Cover 3 at 52.6 percent and the third-highest rate of zone coverage (78.4 percent). Brown ranks third on the Commanders in targets per route run (27 percent) and yards per route run (1.67) against Cover 3. Meanwhile, Zaccheaus ranks first in targets per route run rate (38 percent) and second in yards per route run (2.42) versus zone coverage on the Commanders. Brown ranks third on the team, with a 23 percent targets per route run and 1.97 yards per route run.

Brown falls into the group of boom-or-bust receivers who could outperform expectations in Week 7. He's a cheaper piece of the Commanders offense, with Jayden Daniels ranking seventh in adjusted yards per attempt, 10th in pass rate over expected (7.34 percent), and second in completions over expected (7 percent). Stream Brown if needed.

Week 7 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Christian Watson vs. Derek Stingley Jr.

We hate to bet against the Packers offense, but the Texans have been solid against opposing receivers. Derek Stingley Jr. allows 0.19 fantasy points per route run and 0.82 yards per route. He's been the sixth-highest-graded cornerback per PFF, aligning with the underlying metrics. Christian Watson had one of his efficient games in Week 6, catching three receptions for 68 yards and one touchdown on four targets.

The Texans use single-high coverage at the eighth-highest rate at 58.3 percent of the time. Watson ranks fifth on the team in yards per route run (1.22) and seventh in targets per route run rate (13 percent) versus single-high coverage.

While Watson has shown us the splash plays in the past, he ranked fifth in first-read target share at 9.3 percent, suggesting Jordan Love prefers to spread the ball around and target Jayden Reed (24 percent), Romeo Doubs (20.4 percent), and Dontayvion Wicks (20.2 percent).

Be cautious with Watson and the Packers receivers since they face the Texans, who give up the lowest EPA per play among pass defenses.

Michael Wilson vs. Cam Hart

With Marvin Harrison Jr. dealing with a concussion, Michael Wilson's volume should increase. Wilson had a couple of spike weeks against the Lions and Commanders with 27 percent and 32 percent target shares, respectively. He faces a Chargers secondary allowing the eighth-lowest fantasy points per game to receivers out wide and 10th-fewest to the slot.

It's a small sample for Wilson's projected matchup with Cam Hart since he played the most coverage snaps of the season. The Chargers drafted Hart in the fifth round as a bigger cornerback listed at 6-foot-2 and 207 pounds. We highlight that because Hart should match up well against Wilson as one of their bigger corners.

The Chargers use a high rate of zone coverage, the second-most at 82.1 percent behind the Buccaneers. Kyler Murray targets Trey McBride the most, with a 31 percent targets per route run rate against zone coverage with an above-average 2.36 yards per route run.

Meanwhile, Wilson ranks fourth in team targets per route run at 18 percent, with the second-highest yards per route run at 1.76, tied with Harrison versus zone. Unfortunately, Wilson's underlying metrics against man coverage have been worse, with a 15 percent target share and 0.45 yards per route.

The visual below shows the team pace data sorted by the slowest seconds per snap with the respective pass and rush rates.

The Chargers love establishing the run, with the second-highest rush rate at 52 percent while slowing the game down, with the slowest pace of play (29.7 seconds per snap). That will lead to fewer plays and offensive opportunities for both teams, meaning the Cardinals must be efficient.

Wilson will need to score a touchdown to outperform expectations since the top receivers against the Chargers averaged 5.4 targets, 3.8 receptions, and 59 receiving yards in Weeks 1-6. Calvin Austin III, Xavier Worthy, and Courtland Sutton scored a touchdown in the past three contests versus the Chargers.

Calvin Ridley vs. Rasul Douglas

Before last week, the Titans' schedule for the passing game and receivers looked juicy. They still have the best schedule for receivers for the rest of the season, so this one could burn us by downgrading Calvin Ridley. Fantasy managers have been holding or cutting Ridley based on his underperformance in most leagues. Ridley has a 20 percent target share (No. 41), with a massive 18.7 air yards per target (No. 2).

That leads to Ridley ranking 55th in EP/G, yet No. 168th in fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G). Ridley's volume and efficiency haven't been favorable in 2024. One positive note for Ridley involved the season-high 14.1 EP/G in Week 6, suggesting a potential WR2-type performance against the Colts.

The downside is that the Bills allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide, with Rasul Douglas giving up 0.21 fantasy points per route (No. 36) and 0.84 yards per route run (No. 33) out of 90 cornerbacks.

Their other top corner, Christian Benford, has been even better, with 0.13 fantasy points per route (No. 11) and 0.48 yards per route run (No. 8). Benford projects to face DeAndre Hopkins, but fantasy managers likely lost hope in the veteran compared to Ridley.

There could be room for garbage time since the Titans expect to be nine-point underdogs against an improved Bills team with Amari Cooper. Ridley should see regression in his favor via the air yards and expected fantasy points, though it's more of a risky WR3/4-type option.

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