X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Why Zero RB Will Work in 2017

Chris Mangano takes a detailed look at the Zero-RB draft strategy and its viability for the 2017 NFL season.

When Shawn Siegele published "Zero RB, Antifragility, and the Myth of Value-Based Drafting" in 2013, he brought Zero RB to the mainstream. It took a few years to really catch on, but entering 2016 fantasy football drafts Zero RB was all the rage. Many players ignored running backs in the early rounds and stock-piled wide receivers. For the first time ever three wide receivers were selected with the top three picks in almost every draft. Unfortunately for drafters who used this strategy, 2016 saw a resurgence at the running back position. Players like David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Ezekiell Elliott and others dominated the fantasy landscape in a way running backs haven’t since the days of LaDanian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson.

As we enter the 2017 draft season, running backs once again are at a premium. At the time of this writing, the top three PPR choices according to FantasyFootballCalculator are running backs. Running backs also occupy five of the top nine picks. Compare that to 2016 when the first running back off the board was David Johnson at pick four and only three running backs went in the first nine picks. The fantasy community is a fickle bunch indeed.

The question then is this: are running backs really back or can a Zero RB draft strategy still work? I think it can and will. In this article, I will discuss why I feel the running back position is headed for regression in 2017. I will also discuss how wide receivers are safer choices and how and why a Zero RB strategy can give you a huge advantage over the rest of your league.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Running Backs Are Due For Regression

Running backs scored touchdowns at an unsustainable rate in 2016. I looked at all NFL rushing data from 2010-2016 courtesy of Pro Football Reference and here is what I found: teams in 2017 attempted the fewest number of runs, combined for the second fewest rushing yards and called the lowest percentage of running plays during that stretch. Yet despite the league running the ball less than ever, running backs combined for the most touchdowns over that stretch by 33. That is two extra rushing touchdowns per week. In fact, you have to go back to 2008 to find a season that had more rushing touchdowns than 2017. The difference is teams ran the ball 800 more times that year.

Teams weren't running more in the red zone either. 2016 ranked second-fewest in total red zone carries, yet featured 44 more touchdowns than any other year tracked. Teams were, however, incredibly successful at running the ball in the red zone, specifically inside the five. In 2016, teams scored on 46.9% of their carries inside the five yard line. The average over the previous six years was 42.3% with a high of 43.7% in 2012. So either teams suddenly got really good at running the ball inside the five or 2016 was an outlier year for running back scoring. I'm going with the latter.

Take away the touchdowns and 2016 looks eerily similar to 2015. Here's a table to illustrate just how close they were:

Attempts Yards YPA TDs Rush%
2016 13,321 55,763 4.2 443 40.7
2015 13,488 55,724 4.1 365 40.9

 
Pretty easy to see what stands out.

Running backs weren't being used in the passing game more either. In 2016, the top 36 PPR scoring running backs combined for 1,420 receptions and 11,620 yards. In 2015, the worst fantasy year for running backs ever, they combined for 1,391 receptions and 11,876 yards. That's virtually the same number of PPR points (2,582 vs 2578.6). Even receiving touchdowns were virtually identical (58 to 54).

If running back scoring regresses closer to what happened in 2015, which the numbers support happening, players who draft running back heavy are going to be very disappointed.

 

Drafting WR Will Differentiate You From League-Mates

Let's face it, the goal of most fantasy leagues is to win. Winners get all the glory and most (if not all) of the money. Sure, some leagues pay small amounts to other positions but the real glory and the real money is in winning. Winning a fantasy football league is not easy. It takes preparation, tireless work during the season, and lots of luck! An easy way to give your team an advantage over your league-mates is to do what they aren't doing. Basically zig while everyone else is zagging.

Much like a large GPP tournament in daily sports, if your lineup is the same as everyone else's you can't win. Good GPP players will try to predict player ownership in an attempt to target high upside players who they believe will be low owned. You can use a similar tactic in your fantasy football drafts. If you suspect most of your league-mates are high on running backs it would be in your best interest to ignore the running back position and draft wide receivers instead. This may seem counter-intutive but let me explain.

Any advantage you have over every other team in your league increases your chances of winning. If your entire league is strong at running back and weak at wide receiver no one has an advantage. It comes down to sheer luck. In the same scenario if you are weak at running back but strong at wide receiver you have an advantage no team can match. You have separated yourself from the pack and increased your chances of winning. Similar to what the pros are able to do in GPP tournaments. If at some point during the course of the season you can improve your running backs either through trades or waiver pickups you will have an insurmountable advantage.

I predict that in most casual leagues running backs will be going early and often. Even in "expert" drafts that I have seen running backs are dominating draft boards. In early ADP data from Fantasy Calculator twelve running backs are being selected in the first twenty-four picks of PPR drafts. As we get closer to the season I would expect that number to rise even more as casual players begin drafting.

 

Wide Receivers Are Safer Than Running Backs

In a 2016 study done by Air Yards guru Josh Hermsmeyer titled "Why Zero RB Works: Quantifying Positional Injury Rates" he proved that wide receivers are safer when it comes to injuries. While his study showed very little difference in injury rates between the positions, it showed a massive difference in the severity of the injuries. He states:

Running backs are anywhere from 24 to 31 percent more likely to come up lame from a serious injury than a wide receiver.

Having your stud receiver miss a game or two will not end your championship hopes. But having your stud running back suffer a serious injury (in this case defined as four or more weeks) could absolutely keep you from a spot in your leagues playoffs.

Here's the most alarming part of his study if you are drafting running backs early. Backs taken in the first five rounds of drafts tend to get injured at a much higher rate than wide receivers and suffer much more serious injuries. Hersmeyer speaking on backs and receivers taken in the first five rounds:

While the non-serious injury rate for WR stays relatively constant, the non-serious injury rate for RBs skyrockets. The relative risk for RBs in the first five rounds is 31-45 percent higher than that for WRs.

He goes on to say:

WRs drafted in the first five rounds are actually less likely than the rest of the WR population to suffer a serious injury. Meanwhile RBs drafted in the first five rounds continue their upward trend, and are far more likely than the RB population to suffer a serious injury. When combined, these two results cause the relative risk of choosing a RB in high leverage rounds to balloon to a ludicrous 200-360 percent more than choosing a WR.

So by foregoing running backs early in favor of wide receivers you are accomplishing some good things. First, you are giving your team an advantage other teams will not have. Second, you are choosing players who are much more likely to still be healthy come fantasy playoff time. Third, when other teams invariably suffer injuries to their high drafted running backs they are unable to recover because of their relative weakness at the other positions.

I think one of the major points that got lost on people who choose to go Zero RB was how it benefits from chaos. In that original article Siegel talks about how Zero RB benefits from this chaos:

You can see fairly easily how Zero RB benefits from randomness. Whenever a starting RB gets hurt, my lineup gets better. It gets better in relation to my opponents because I didn’t have the player in question, and it gets better in the sense that I either own the backup or I have a shot to acquire the backup in free agency.

In 2015, Tim Hightower won many players a fantasy football championship. In 2016, running backs like Bilal Powell, Zach Zenner and DeAndre Washington came through late in the season (playoff time) for fantasy owners. When a stud running back goes down it is much easier to predict who will see the bulk of the carries versus when a stud wide receiver goes down. Teams that were already strong at receiver and grabbed Powell, Zenner or Washington off waivers likely crushed the rest of their league.

In Part Two of my Zero-RB study, I will look at some of my favorite late-round running backs who can help the Zero-RB drafter dominate in the face of chaos.

 

More Zero RB Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Jalen Williams

will Undergo Surgery on Right Wrist
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Deandre Ayton

Finalizing Contract Buyout With Portland
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Porter Jr. Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Toronto Raptors

Garrett Temple Returning to Toronto
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF