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Back in 2016, TJ Friedl began his pro career in the Reds farm system, methodically working his way up the ranks until he finally made his MLB debut in 2021. However, it was not until 2023 that he became a regular in the Reds' lineup. The lefty ended the season top-3 on the team in hits, home runs, runs scored, RBI, and stolen bases, amongst other categories as well.
He was supposed to build upon his 2023 breakout, playing center field and leading off for Cincinnati, but instead, he'll be watching from the bench for the first couple months of the season. The 28-year-old fractured a bone in his wrist attempting a diving catch in a spring training game. This was yet another blow to the Reds' promising young lineup with Matt McLain dealing with a shoulder injury that may require surgery and Noelvi Marte set to serve an 80-game PED suspension.
Friedl wasn't a top pick for fantasy drafts, but he was a bit of a late-round sleeper with his ability to hit for contact and steal bases, so what now? When will he be back and what does this do for his fantasy baseball outlook in 2024? Let's take a look.
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TJ Friedl Injury Update for Fantasy Baseball
Friedl will be reevaluated three-to-four weeks from now, but knowing he would also need some time to ramp back up, perhaps a June return is the rosiest of outcomes. It's a devastating blow to the Reds, not just in terms of offense and defense, but in terms of being a role model for how you're supposed to play the game -- with heart and hustle.
Congratulations to TJ Friedl, who accepted his 2023 Heart and Hustle Award before the game today.
TJ was joined on the field by members of his family and Reds manager, David Bell. @TjFriedl1 | @JimDayTV | @Reds pic.twitter.com/9H2O3zWviA
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) September 2, 2023
The problem is that the injury is to his wrist which is obviously a big component of a hitter's swing, so it's hard to forecast just how long it will take to get back into form even once he returns. It wasn't the same injury, but for comparison's sake, Pete Alonso suffered a wrist injury last season and hit .132 (12-for-91) in the 25 games following his return, so it could take a while to get the timing down again.
TJ Friedl Fantasy Baseball Outlook
The injury has moved Friedl's RotoBaller rank from 147 overall to 229 overall and rightfully so. ATC projections now have the lefty going .255-12-48-58-18 over 388 at-bats (105 games). Friedl could certainly outperform that batting average projection, as he's an adept bunter, having collected 17 bunt singles in 2023 (most in the majors). His average on bunts was .708 (17-for-24), which caused a big discrepancy between his actual (.279) and expected batting average (.240).
He also had a Contact% of 83.4%, which was well above league average (76.4%), and a home-to-first speed of 4.27 which was faster than Esteury Ruiz and Ronald Acuna Jr. That combination should help him beat out some infield singles that would have otherwise been outs.
Friedl can provide good stolen base and run production when he's in there, especially hitting atop the Reds lineup that still has Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand.
It hurts to lose a player you drafted before the season even begins, but in Friedl's case, you probably didn't have to spend a very high pick to get him. Regardless, you were likely hoping for some upside, perhaps nabbing a few sneaky homers from a player who doesn't have that type of batted ball profile, and maybe collecting nearly 30 stolen bases. With about 200 at-bats removed from the equation, unfortunately, it doesn't leave much room for the upside to come to fruition.
It's hard to justify a roster spot on a player that won't provide any return for a couple of months. If you have an IL spot though he would still be a worthwhile stash. In deeper leagues where the player pool isn't rife with multi-category producers, he could be worth a bench spot if you have a starting lineup that can withstand not having his production for the time being. And if needed, you send him to the waiver wire when the first hot prospect gets called up.
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