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Week 15 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2020 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

If you're checking this for your match-up this week, congratulations. With all the delays and COVID cases on top of the normal scale of NFL injuries, getting to your semi-final is no small feat. Sure, maybe it was partially luck, but that's true of all the best fantasy seasons. You may have even started an atrocious Cowboys Defense or a Dolphins Defense against the Chiefs and still come away with double-digit points last week. No matter how you got here, it's all the same in the end.

As with every year so far, we saw some crazy defenses sneak into the top-10. However, if you stuck with solid defenses like Washington, Indianapolis, or the Rams, you were rewarded. As were you if you continued to attack the Jets and Bengals offenses. We predicted five of the top-10 defenses right with Baltimore still to come but fell short with the Steelers and Saints near the top of the rankings.

The Saints' inability to finish as a top-10 defense this week is just another argument for keeping an eye on injuries and lineup changes in these final few weeks. The Eagles offensive line hasn't gotten healthier or better, and Jalen Hurts didn't become Tom Brady and start carving up defenses. However, with Hurts in the lineup, the Eagles ran a lot more designed runs and run-pass-options, which meant less standing in the pocket behind a porous offensive line and fewer opportunities for sacks. Even if the Eagles don't keep knocking off title contenders, it may mean that they are no longer an offense we want to pick on as readily as we do the Jets, Bengals, and Broncos.

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On the other hand, Pittsburgh lost three offensive linemen yesterday. As a result, they can't seem to run the ball, and with them finally having to play from behind, we saw Ben Roethlisberger get pressured behind the back-up linemen and make some bad throws. It's possible that the scheme has covered up some of Ben's shortcomings and we could be seeing the true level of performance to expect from the Steelers' offense going forward against some tough defenses.

 

Picking The Right Defenses

When choosing a defense, you want to be looking for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points.  If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.

Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. NFL offenses have scored 10,173 points or 24.6 points per game so far this season, which, despite coming back to earth a little bit over the past couple of weeks, is the most through the first 13 weeks of any season in the Super Bowl era.

With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.

We can also identify the offenses that we want to attack based on current performance. Injuries can always change this, but, for right now, defenses going up against the Cowboys, Jets, Broncos, Lions, Bengals, Giants, and Washington Football team have scored considerably more points on average than defenses facing other offenses. As I mentioned above, attacking these teams doesn't always work, and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams; however, it is a key factor to keep in mind when making your decision.

Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.

 

Week 15 Defenses To Start & Stream: Tiers & Rankings

These rankings are from before the Monday Night Football game and will be adjusted throughout the week to take into account weather and injuries.

Below are my Week 15 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 15 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver wire pickups to improve your lineups, and to decide which defenses to start, sit, target, avoid or stream for Week 15. I've broken out our defense rankings into tiers with analysis on each matchup. Some of these Week 15 defenses have good matchups and are not widely-owned, representing fantasy scoring opportunities if they are available on your league's waiver wire for a Week 14 pickup or add.

Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating, which Bill Dubiel started last year, is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of a straight point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. I take a lot of factors into account: opponent injuries, home-field advantage, weather (which will be updated during the week), etc. We still have only one game of in-season data to work with, so this week's rankings weigh schedule and personnel heavier than they will down the line.

Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues and Tier 5 being desperation plays or good defenses in horrendous matchups.

 

Tier 1 Defenses

Rank Tier DST Week 15 Opponent Confidence Rating
1 1 Los Angeles Rams Defense vs NYJ 14.1
2 1 Pittsburgh Steelers Defense @ CIN 13.7
3 1 Buffalo Bills Defense @ DEN 12.6
4 1 Baltimore Ravens Defense vs. JAX 12.2

The Rams are one of the hottest defenses in the league. They just destroyed the New England Patriots. Now they play the Jets. There really isn't that much more to be said about this ranking. The Rams held the Patriots to 220 total yards, sacked Cam Newton six times, and picked him off once. They are third in the league in sacks and should get after a Jets offense that is 26th in sacks allowed.

If you watched the Sunday Night Football game, you undoubtedly saw that the Steelers defense just comes at your full speed at the time. They're top-five in blitz rate, which has helped lead to a league-leading 45 sacks and the highest pressure rate in the league. Now they'll get to take their frustration out on one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Bengals are 31st in sacks allowed and 28th in drives that end in a score. They have just been abysmal without Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow, and I don't expect that to get any better this week. In a normal week, they would be the #1 defense. If it makes you feel better, call the Rams and Steelers 1A and 1B.

It's December, and the Bills defense has shown up to play. I mentioned last week that the game against the 49ers was the first time that the Bills starting defense had been on the field together. With the team finally healthy, they're playing at levels that are reminiscent of last year. They absolutely took it to the Steelers on Sunday with two interceptions, a touchdown, and one sack (which was heavily influenced by Ben Roethlisberger having the quickest release time of any quarterback in the league). The Steelers went into Sunday night’s game averaging over 27 points and 345 yards of total offense per game. Against the Bills, the Steelers only had 15 points and 224 total yards. The Bills are tied for 3rd in the league in total turnovers and percentage of drives ending in an offensive turnover and will now play a Denver team that is dead last in offensive drives ending in a turnover. The Broncos may not allow a ton of sacks, but with the division hanging in the balance, expect Sean McDermott to have the Bills ready to go on Saturday, which means not a lot of yards for the Broncos and a few turnovers to add to your fantasy total.

The Ravens defense looked really strong through three quarters on Monday night, holding a solid Browns offense to only 13 total points. Then things got wild. The Ravens let up 42 points, recorded zero sacks, forced seven fumbles, and recovered none of them. It was a crazy game, and I'm liable to not read too much into it given that we know the talent on the Ravens defense and the ways in which they've been put to the test as a team over the last two weeks. They also get a phenomenal match-up next weekend. The Mike Glennon experience was a nice story for two weeks as he took shots down the field consistently and moved the Jaguars' offense against some average defenses. That all came to an end on Sunday against a poor Titans Defense and he was benched for Garnder Minshew. Playing behind a poor offensive line that is 21st in sacks allowed, I don't expect Minshew to be particularly effective against a Ravens defense that leads the league in blitz rate and is 9th in overall pressure rate. What's more, James Robinson came into Sunday's game with a knee injury and then proceeded to see his fewest snaps in months. If the Jaguars decide to not take many chances and limit their rookie's workload, they become an even better offense to target. Baltimore should be able to rack up sacks and force a couple of turnovers on their way to a top-five finish.

 

Tier 2 Defenses

Rank Tier DST Week 15 Opponent Confidence Rating
5 2 Miami Dolphins Defense vs NE 11.4
6 2 Cleveland Browns Defense @ NYG 10.6
7 2 San Francisco 49ers Defense @ DAL 10.3
8 2 Indianapolis Colts Defense vs HOU 9.9

Yes, the Dolphins gave up 33 points and 448 yards to the Chiefs, but, I mean, it's the Chiefs. They also picked off Patrick Mahomes three times and forced a fumble which has been the story for this defense all season: the force turnovers at an elite level. In fact, the Dolphins' effort on Sunday is the perfect encapsulation of why we shouldn't overvalue yardage allowed since they still finished as a top-10 defense. The Dolphins lead the league in total turnovers and are second, behind only the Browns, in the percentage of offensive drives that end in a defensive turnover. Now they will face an offense that is 26th in offensive drives ending in a turnover; that's exciting. I'm sure Brian Flores will have his team up and ready to take on his former boss, and the Patriots looked like a team that had quit at times on Thursday. They simply don't have the firepower to put up a lot of points against the Dolphins and they turn the ball over too much not to make a few mistakes this week.

Daniel Jones is not healthy. With the Giants finding themselves in the hunt for the NFC East, he took the field on Sunday but he had nowhere near the same mobility, and the Giants offense looked stuck in the mud. If Jones is going to be liming around on one and a half legs, he's going to be in for a long day against a solid Browns defense that has some consistency issues in getting after the quarterback but has the talent to do so. I'm not overly enthusiastic about the Browns defense, but they do lead the league in percentage of drives that end in an offensive turnover, and the Giants allow an average top-10 finish to the opposing defense, so the gamescript would easily favor the Giants having to play catch-up on offense. With Colt McCoy likely under center, I could see a few more turnovers this week.

The Cowboys may have scored 30 points against the Bengals, but the offense looked unimpressive against a bottom-tier defense. They gained only 272 total yards and stalled in the red zone too often. Meanwhile, the 49ers' defense was far more impressive than the score indicated against a mediocre Washington offense. They gave up only 193 yards of total offense, allowed zero offensive touchdowns, and came away with two sacks and a turnover. Washington without Antonio Gibson may be a worse offense than Dallas; however, Dallas is 24th in sacks allowed and 31st in offensive drives ending in a turnover. The 49ers are still a solid defensive unit that will capitalize on that.

When a defensive coordinator gets fired after a game, you assume the opposing offense simply dominated. That's not the case here. The Colts' offense played well, but their defense really made big plays throughout the game against the Raiders with one touchdown, two interceptions, and a fumble on their ledger. However, they also had zero sacks, which has been part of the problem for the Colts during the year. This is a solid unit that doesn't have an incredible pass rush, but prevents big yardage and has the players to create turnovers. They are 3rd in overall turnovers and 9th in percentage of drives that end in a turnover but will face a Texans team that is 7th in offensive drives that end in a turnover. This Texans offense is not as dynamic without Will Fuller and continues to trot out an offensive line that can't pass protect, ranking 28th in sacks allowed, so the Colts will need to get to Deshaun Watson in order to finish insider the top-1o since we know the veteran quarterback is going to make some plays and avoid big mistakes. With Xavier Rhodes, the team's best cornerback, leaving the field injured late on Sunday, I'm a little concerned about Watson and a healthy Brandin Cooks coming to town.

Tier 3 Defenses

Rank Tier DST Week 15 Opponent Confidence Rating
9 3 Seattle Seahawks Defense @ WAS 9.7
10 3 Arizona Cardinals Defense vs. PHI 8.5
11 3 Washington Football Team Defense vs. SEA 8.3
12 3 New England Patriots Defense  @ MIA 8.1
13 3 Philadelphia Eagles Defense @ ARI 7.8
14 3 New York Giants Defense vs. CLE 7.6
15 3 New Orleans Saints Defense vs. KC 7.1

People keep thinking of the Seahawks as the team with the historically bad secondary. That's a mistake. After getting Jamal Adams back and trading for Carlos Dunlap, this has become a different Seahawks defense. No, they are not an elite unit, and, yes, they did beat up on a terrible Jets team on Sunday; however, they are also the 8th-ranked defense over the last five weeks. With Antonio Gibson still likely hobbled by a turf toe injury, Washington might not really be that much better than the Jets team the Seahawks just destroyed. Washington allows the 5th-most points to opposing defenses on average and, if Alex Smith can't go, a Seahawks defensive line that is 9th in sacks should be licking their chops to play against Dwayne Haskins.

Listen, I'm not going to tell you that Carson Wentz was the only problem with the Eagles, but I am going to say that they are not as bad of a team as they looked. Especially on defense. Despite all the mess on offense, the Eagles' defensive line has come to play all season long. They are 2nd in sacks and 10th in drives that end in an offensive score despite being a defense that is also 31st in drives that end in an offensive turnover. The bad news for them is that the Cardinals are 9th in sacks allowed, which is why I prefer the Cardinals' defense in this battle. We talked about how Hurts changes the dynamics of the Eagles offense, but this is still an Arizona defense that is 3rd in pressure rate and 6th in sacks, both numbers which rank better than the Saints. It means the Cardinals may be able to disrupt the rookie's rhythm a little more and keep a solid floor performance which sneaks them into the back of the top-10.

Say what you want about the San Francisco offense, but the Washington defense is also legit. They are 5th in sacks, 14th in pressure rate, and 8th in drives that end in an offensive score. They are also 10th against the run, so if the Seahawks are going to commit to being this slower, more run-heavy team, it's not going to be the best way to attack Washington. Once Seattle does pass, they will do so behind an offensive line that is 30th in sacks allowed, which should give Chase Young and company ample opportunity to get after Russell Wilson.

I know it seems crazy to put the Patriots here seeing as how they just got embarrassed on Thursday night, but I don't expect Bill Belichick to just roll over and give up against one of his former assistants, especially when the Patriots still have an outside shot at a Wild Card spot. This defense isn't perfect, but they are second in the league in pressure rate and 6th in drives that end in an offensive turnover, so they can still put up some useful fantasy days. We don't even have to look that far back since they dismantled Justin Herbert and the Chargers two weeks ago. Tua Tagovailoa is good, but Justin Herbert is pretty clearly further along at this stage of their careers. Bill Belichick against a rookie quarterback is always a matchup you want to bet on.

The Giants looked bad on Sunday but that was more of a product of the lackluster performance on offense than anything. When you gain less than 170 total yards, you are going to put your defense in some bad spots. This is a defense that still ranks 8th in pressure rate, 12th in sacks, and 7th in defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover. They are also 8th best against the run, which is crucial in a matchup with Cleveland, who is going to look to ride Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Browns are 5th in sacks allowed and 11th in percentage of drives that end in a turnover, so they won't give the Giants many opportunities for points, but I think this will be more of a defensive battle that people expect.

The Saints had been the best fantasy defense in the second half of the season, so we expected them to smash versus the Eagles. Unfortunately, they didn't deliver. However, there is only so far we can drop them, even against an offense like the Chiefs. We just saw the Dolphins put up a top-10 effort against Kansas City, and even though the Saints are not nearly as prolific in forcing turnovers, they are a strong unit that ranks 4th in yards per play allowed, 8th in sacks, 7th in pressure rate, and 7th in overall turnovers (despite being 15th in percentage of drives that end in a turnover). What all of those numbers suggest is a team that has enough avenues to a fantasy floor that will keep them in Tier 3.

Tier 4 Defenses

Rank Tier DST Week 15 Opponent Confidence Rating
16 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense @ ATL 6.9
17 4 Kansas City Chiefs Defense @ NO 6.5
18 4 Tennessee Titans Defense vs DET 6.4
19 4 Los Angeles Chargers Defense @ LV 5.7
20 4 Chicago Bears Defense @ MIN 4.5
21 4 Atlanta Falcons Defense vs TB 4.3
22 4 Minnesota Vikings Defense vs CHI 4.1

 

Tier 5 Defenses

Rank Tier DST Week 15 Opponent Confidence Rating
23 5 Green Bay Packers Defense vs CAR 3.9
24 5 Denver Broncos Defense vs BUF 3.1
25 5 Dallas Cowboys Defense  vs SF 2.9
26 5 Las Vegas Raiders Defense vs LAC 2.5
27 5 Houston Texans Defense  @ IND 1.9
28 5 New York Jets Defense  @ LAR 1.5
29 5 Jacksonville Jaguars Defense @ BAL 1.2
30 5 Detroit Lions Defense @TEN 1.1
31 5 Cincinnati Bengals Defense vs PIT 0.8
32 5 Carolina Panthers Defense @ GB 0.6


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