Week 10 Fantasy Football Buys

Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)

The 19^th-ranked QB is coming off of a bye week to face a ticked-off Green Bay Packers squad that ranks sixth in touchdowns allowed on the season. With a new offensive coordinator and a franchise looking for a new president and general manager, the Detroit Lions are a perfect example of the oft-used “dumpster fire” phrase that gets thrown around. Stafford is a solid target for QB-needy teams because of his seventh-easiest strength of schedule and a playoff schedule that includes New Orleans and San Francisco in the final two weeks. He might surprise this week at Green Bay, where he has put up a QB rating of 90.4 in 10 career games, with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Matt Ryan has been a disappointing fantasy asset this year, with less than 14 points per game over the last six weeks. Despite his top-five ranking in passing yards, he is 17^th in touchdowns thrown. The impressive rushing of Devonta Freeman is likely a big factor, but still Matt Ryan has only finished outside the top ten once since 2010. Currently ranked 11^th, Ryan looks like a steady QB option with a solid floor but low ceiling. Even tough matchups against Carolina twice in the playoffs shouldn’t hurt Ryan as much as it will his favorite receiver, Julio Jones. Ryan may be available on the waiver wire, and he’s worth a look if you’re in need of a good backup or bye week replacement.

Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF)

Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor is currently the ninth-ranked QB in fantasy points per game, ahead of Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, and Marcus Mariota. He may have hit the waiver wire during the three weeks he spent injured and on bye. Buffalo’s remaining schedule is about average, but Taylor’s ability to add yards on the ground (ranked fourth among QBs in yards and touchdowns) makes him a good option at the QB spot. He was on pace for a top-ten finish before being injured, and he should be back for the rest of season.

Doug Martin (RB, TB)

After two disappointing weeks in which he averaged six fantasy points per game, Martin is giving owners flashbacks of previous seasons. This makes him a prime target for anyone in need of a running back. Martin had less than 50% of the offensive snaps in week nine, but that happened four times in the first half of the season. His recent struggles are likely a result of opponent and game flow. In Week 8, he faced the Atlanta Falcons, who rank third in rushing yard per attempt and second in rushing yards allowed per game. His Week 9 opponent, the New York Giants, have seen the most passing attempts against their defense in the league, and rank 23^rd in passing yards allowed per attempt, 31^st in passing yards allowed per game, and 28^th in passing touchdowns allowed. With the eighth-easiest strength of schedule for running backs, Martin is the best buy-low target this week. I also recommend Charles Sims to anyone in PPR leagues.

Frank Gore (RB, IND)

Facing the sixth-best strength of schedule for running backs, the consistent Frank Gore should remain a solid RB2 at worst for the rest of the year. At best, he has the potential to be a mid-RB1 with the absence of Andrew Luck slowing down the passing game. The remaining schedule has four teams that rank in the bottom 12 of rushing touchdowns allowed. He has hit his highest amount of carries in the previous two games (22 and 28) and only been close to those numbers in the two games Luck missed earlier this year, where he rushed 17 and 22 times. He may not be the cheapest trade target, but current owners may be disappointed with his lack of big games and concerned about the direction of the Colts offense moving forward.

Matt Forte (RB, CHI)

For fantasy owners eyeing the playoffs, Matt Forte’s injury makes him a great target in trades with teams that are fighting for a playoff spot. Some are wondering if Chicago will shut down Forte or limit his touches due to the great play of Jeremy Langford against the San Diego Chargers in Week 9. Forte is fourth in rushing attempts per game and has still played on nearly 70% of all offensive snaps despite missing the last game. He is the most beloved player on the Chicago Bears, and you can count on him sliding back into his usual role when he returns. In dynasty leagues he is a great target for teams looking to win the championship this year, and his value has dipped a bit because of the injury and good backup performance.

Stevie Johnson (WR, SD)

With yet another blow to the injury-riddled San Diego Chargers, Stevie Johnson now finds himself the number one wide receiver option for Philip Rivers, who is leading the league in pass attempts, completions, and yards. He is tied for third in touchdowns. Malcom Floyd has stated he will attempt to play through injury, but the fact that the Chargers are out of the playoff hunt gives no reason to expect him to play each week. Still, Rivers has a lot to play for in terms of personal accomplishments, so it’s reasonable to expect continued success through the air for his weapons. Antonio Gates also sees an increase in value, but Stevie Johnson went from a waiver wire option two weeks ago to a must-own with potential for WR2 weeks for the rest of the year. A less-than-impressive 13 points in PPR leagues against Chicago last week probably keeps his value down, but expect some great production from him after the bye this week. The remaining schedule is ranked as the fifth-easiest for wide receivers.

Travis Benjamin (WR, CLE)

In the last three weeks, Benjamin has had under 50 receiving yards and four catches or less. In those three weeks, the Browns faced the Rams, Cardinals, and Bengals, who rank fourth, seventh and 15^th in passing yards allowed per game and first, 11^th, and sixth in passing touchdowns allowed. The Week 9 game also featured Johnny Manziel in at QB for the injured Josh McCown. McCown is scheduled to return in Week 10 against the Steelers, who rank 26^th in passing yards allowed per game. After a Week 11 bye, the Browns face three teams ranked in the bottom 11 of passing yards allowed in their final five games. Other than the previous three weeks, Benjamin has only one game under 50 receiving yards this season. He could be a sneaky-good flex play down the stretch with potential for low-WR2 numbers.

T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)

You have to be careful if you’re targeting Hilton. With the uncertainty around his production moving forward, he should be valued as a low-end WR2 at best. You should target him with the knowledge that Andrew Luck will be probably be out for the rest of the season and the Hilton owner is probably panicking with the already questionable Hilton on his roster. When looking at Weeks 4 and 5 (the two games Hilton played with Hasselbeck this year), Hilton led the team in targets both games (13 and 9) and actually had his third- and fourth-most targeted games of the season. He failed to reach the end zona, but he averaged 5.5 catches and 81 yards in these two games. I think a solid floor of five catches and 60+ yards is reasonable for Hilton moving forward, making him a good flex option and decent WR2 based on matchup. The Colts finish Weeks 15 and 16 with matchups against Houston and Miami, who are both tied at 21^st for passing touchdowns allowed. Hilton should be a good play both weeks.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Sells

Carson Palmer (QB, ARI)

As I pointed out last week, Carson Palmer’s schedule gets much tougher in the second half of the season. Over the first eight weeks, his opponents had an average ranking of just over 20 in touchdowns allowed. In passing yards allowed, his eight opponents had an average ranking of 20. In the second half of the season, his opponents have an average ranking of 14 in passing yards allowed and 6.3 in passing touchdowns allowed. The good news for owners is that his value is sky high right now as the sixth-ranked QB in fantasy points per game and seventh-best in total points. It’s time to move Palmer while his value is at its peak.

Derek Carr (QB, OAK)

Other than the season opener in which he injured his hand, two of Derek Carr’s worst performances of the year have come on the road (Weeks 3 and 4 against Cleveland and Chicago). This is relevant because the two easiest games on his remaining schedule are also on the road (Detroit and Tennessee). Other than those two games, Carr has tough matchups against Green Bay, Minnesota, and Denver. In his first game against Denver, he had his worst game of the year with only nine fantasy points. Carr will be solid at worst in real football terms, but fantasy-wise he could have a drop in production. His wide receivers have the eighth-hardest schedule remaining, and even his running back has a schedule ranked right in the middle. Carr has a future as a fantasy stud, but tough matchups will hurt him this year.

Justin Forsett (RB, BAL)

In his next seven games, Forsett faces five teams ranked in the top 13 of rushing yards allowed per game, and three of the top seven teams in rushing touchdowns allowed. Unfortunately for Forsett owners, his value hasn’t improved much over the course of the year. He has been consistent but not outstanding. If you are using Forsett as your RB2, you might be forced to hold onto him begrudgingly. He is top ten in rush attempts and yards, and running backs with this type of usage are rare this year. If he is in your flex spot or on your bench, you should consider moving him for a more stable RB2, like Doug Martin or Lamar Miller.

James Starks (RB, GB)

Newly labeled the starting running back in Green Bay, James Starks is a hot ticket for fantasy owners. He is hopefully putting up the production that was expected from Eddie Lacy. Starks is definitely worth owning and has potential to be a solid RB2, but it’s quite possible that his value is higher now than it will be for the rest of the year. In Week 10, Starks put up 59 yards and a touchdown in a span of three plays in the third quarter when the score was 37-14 Carolina. That accounts for almost half of his total yardage for the game. In his other big game in Week 6, he put up 56% of his total yardage in one 65-yard rush for a touchdown. Starks could be an explosive piece that Green Bay has been missing, but it’s possible there’s a reason he hasn’t been on the field.

Larry Fitzgerald (RB, ARI)

Larry Fitzgerald makes this list for the same reasons Carson Palmer did. Fitzgerald also has the emerging John Brown and reliable Michael Floyd working against him. In the last three games, Fitzgerald has scored less than both of those receivers twice, and was second to Floyd in Week 8 when John Brown didn’t play. Fitzgerald still has great value, and the tough schedule mixed with the solid run game and availability of other weapons in the passing game makes him a good sell high.

Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK)

I don’t mean to pair wide receivers and quarterbacks on this list, but each is so dependent on the other in fantasy and real life that it is bound to happen. I have little faith in Crabtree in particular to play out the rest of the year anything like he has in the past three weeks, where he has averaged over 23 fantasy points per game. If there is any receiver to own in Oakland, it's Amari Cooper. Crabtree is worth keeping as a flex consideration, but it’s worth putting feelers out to see if anyone values him as a mid-level WR2 or higher. I wouldn’t rush to trade him, because he will be a very good flex option in Week 16, but his value is as high as it will get, and the tough upcoming schedule means you can probably get a better player out of him.

Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF)

Sammy Watkins’ incredible return to action in Week 9 leaves him as a perfect candidate to shop around for value. Watkins is probably a low-end WR2 for the year, but he might have some believing he’ll sneak into the low-end WR1 tier. If so, you should jump on a trade to maximize value and potentially set yourself up for better playoff matchups, where Watkins faces two top-ten passing defenses in Washington and Dallas. To reiterate something I say every week that applies to all three of these wide receivers, you shouldn’t sell for the sake of selling. Make sure you get good value for Watkins and, if applicable, use playoff matchups as a tipping point in a trade offer.

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