X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Victor Reyes

Detroit Tigers outfielder Victor Reyes is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 season. Sam Chinitz explains why Reyes' potential for double-digit steals and home runs will make him a draft day steal in 2020.

With a 457 ADP in 2020 NFBC leagues, Detroit Tigers outfielder Victor Reyes is an afterthought in all but the deepest leagues.  Perhaps the 25-year-old shouldn't be, though, as Reyes was quietly solid in 2019, slashing .304/.336/.431 in 292 plate-appearances, with three home runs and nine stolen bases.

Having made stops in Arizona and the Venezuelan winter league since being drafted by Atlanta in 2012, Reyes struggled in his major league debut with Detroit in 2018, slashing .222/.239/.288 in 219 PA. However, Reyes has shown an a combination of excellent contact skills and exciting speed at every place he's played, posting a 15% strikeout-rate over the course of his minor league career and double-digit steals in almost every season.

In 2019, Reyes added some pop to his contact- and speed-based profile, putting up a .127 ISO that was a 64-point bump from 2018. That may not make him Peter Alonso in the power department but adding any sort of pop to Reyes' already fantasy-friendly profile, makes him someone to keep an eye in 2020.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

A Powerful 2019

It appears that these power improvements may have been the result of a new focus by Reyes, as he reportedly added more than 10 lbs of muscle entering 2019, with the extra bulk seemingly translating to on-field results. Finishing with an average 86.4 mph exit-velocity that was 2.5 mph higher than in 2018, Reyes also posted a 30.8 hard-hit rate that was almost a five-point gain from the year prior. 

Once again, those numbers won’t have anyone confusing him for a power hitter, but in the context of his overall skillset, Reyes doesn't need to crush that much in order to be more than adequate.

In addition to his above-average speed and baserunning instincts, Reyes' impressive batted ball profile helps him perform well despite his mediocre power. Spraying the ball to all fields -  with a 29.4% pull-rate and 32.7% oppo-rate - Reyes posted a 28.7% line-drive rate that topped every qualified batter last season. Given this batted-ball profile, it's not unreasonable to think that Reyes' .384 BABIP may only drop in the .350 range, especially as balls are frequently in play for the switch-hitting outfielder, as evidenced by a 72% in-play rate. 

 

Looking to 2020

Reyes’ biggest opportunity for improvement entering 2020 is his plate discipline. Although a strong 74.5% o-contact rate keeps his strikeout-rate down, Reyes’ near 40% chase-rate not only dampens his walk rate but also negatively impacts his in-play rate. These plate-discipline issues trended in the right direction last season, with his chase rate dropping from 47.2% to 39.1%, but his production could really see a jump in improvement if he can cut it to under 35%.

Overall, Reyes has shown himself to be a line-drive hitter with solid power, borderline elite contact skills, and 20+ steal potential. As a result, Reyes’ realistic floor this season is an OPS above .700 with double-digit steals and a better than average strikeout rate. Considering that his draft price is basically free, that sort of skillset shouldn't be ignored.

But enough about floors; let's talk about ceilings! Consider the following player comparison and dream of tail-end probabilities:

2019 Line Drive % Average EV xwOBAcon O-Contact % Z-Contact % Spd (ft/sec) Chase % FB%
Whit Merrifield 28.5 86.4 mph 0.369 73.4 87.2 28.6 34.1 33.5
Victor Reyes 28.7 86.4 mph 0.364 75.4 87.0 28.9 39.1 26.3

Make no mistake, Reyes is not Whit Merrifield and probably never will be. Reyes would have to maintain his power bump, increase his fly-ball rate (without hitting many pop-ups or sacrificing line-drives), and improve his chase rate (among other things) in order to reach Merrifield’s level of production in 2020.

Highly optimistic, for sure; but when you're drafting Reyes in the last rounds (or grabbing him off of the wire), you're not drafting him to be Merrifield, you're drafting him for a skillset that could return a massive profit, given some more incremental improvements. Still, the comparison highlights Reyes’ enticing upside which he pairs with a relatively high floor for his price, making him a strong sleeper pick this season.

More Fantasy Baseball Sleepers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
Corey Heim

Does Not Qualify for Cup Race at Chicago Street Course
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF