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The NASCAR Cup Series hits the west coast this weekend with the Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. In shocking news, Kyle Larson isn't on the pole for this race, something that never happens here. Really—the last time Larson wasn't on pole here was 2016, and he's never started outside the top five at this track until today.
This is our second road course race of the season, with the first one coming at COTA back in March. Tyler Reddick won that one, his first win for 23XI Racing. Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, and William Byron rounded out the top five.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Toyota / Save Mart 350 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 6/11/23 at 3:48 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Kyle Larson
Starts 16th - DK: $10,600, FD: $13,500
With all those poles, you'd think Larson would also have a dominant track record here in the race itself, but his Sonoma results have been largely disappointing. He won here in 2021, leading 57 of the 92 laps, but that's one of just two top 10s he has at Sonoma. Last year, he started on pole and led the first 26 laps, but never recovered after the first caution's pit stops, which led to Larson being mired in traffic and finishing 15th.
Yesterday, he dominated the Xfinity race here, but a late caution put him a few spots back on the final restart. He managed to get up to second, but missed a corner while chasing down Aric Almirola, knocking Larson back to third, where he'd finish.
But still, Larson's a great play on Sunday, even if his luck here hasn't been great. Starting 16th offers some solid place differential upside for Larson, and it shouldn't be too hard for him to get to the front and challenge for the win.
Austin Cindric
Starts 34th - DK: $9,100, FD: $9,500
Cindric's a great road course racer. Early in his NASCAR career, it looked like he was going to be pigeonholed into just being a good road course racer, but he figured out ovals in Xfinity. Now in Cup, he's still working to get better at ovals, but he's already shown his road course chops. Of his 12 career top 10s, half have come at road courses, including a fifth-place finish here last year.
Cindric just had no speed in qualifying, which seemed to be an issue overall for Penske. That puts him 34th on the starting grid. But Cindric has shown an ability to come from the back to the front quickly at road courses:
His talent should ultimately win out here. I expect Cindric to be in contention for a top 10 by the end of this one.
Ryan Blaney
Starts 31st - DK: $8,400, FD: $7,800
Blaney isn't the road course racer that teammate Austin Cindric is, but he's still a top-tier driver starting a race from the 31st position, making him an obvious place differential play.
Sure, Penske struggled to find speed yesterday, but Blaney's the points leader—it's not like he drives a car that always lacks speed. I trust Penske to figure things out during the race.
As for Blaney's record at Sonoma, it's actually really good. He's never led a lap here, but he has four top 10s in six starts, with a best finish of third in 2019. He was sixth here last year and has three top 10s in a row at the track.
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Chris Buescher
Starts 7th - DK: $7,900, FD: $9,000
Great qualifying run for Buescher. Normally, I'd fade him if he started top 10 because the upside just isn't there, but that's not the case at a road course.
Last year, Buescher started third and finished second in this race. And since 2021, RFK's given Buescher really competitive cars at road courses. Last season, he had top 10s at Sonoma plus Road America, Indianapolis, Watkins Glen, and the Charlotte Roval. This year, he was eighth at COTA.
I will say that Buescher's price on FanDuel feels a little heavy for me. Would definitely consider the place differential upside of teammate Brad Keselowski over there, just because that feels like a lot more of a value at $6,800 on FanDuel, whereas Buescher costs just $200 more than Keselowski on DraftKings.
Ty Gibbs
Starts 6th - DK: $7,500, FD: $6,200
Like Buescher, I'd usually fade Gibbs if he started sixth, because he just hasn't consistently shown the race-winning upside I want to see from a driver starting in the top 10. But also like with Buescher, the track changes the calculus here.
Gibbs is a good road course racer. He finished fourth here yesterday in Xfinity in his first-ever visit to this track, and of his 11 career Xfinity Series victories, three have come on road courses despite most of the schedule being ovals.
In Cup, Gibbs has made four road course starts with one top 10, which came this year at COTA. I'm not going to hold last year's three non-top 10s against him since he was subbing for another driver. There's a great shot that Gibbs beats his career-best finish of ninth in today's race.
Zane Smith
Starts 30th - DK: $5,700, FD: $3,500
Smith makes another start for Front Row Motorsports this week, pushing Todd Gilliland into a Rick Ware Racing car, so here's your "don't think Gilliland is in his usual equipment" warning. He might still be in play as a carnage guy, but he won't move forward too much on speed.
Smith has run a handful of races this year, including Charlotte two weeks ago, where he finished 10th in the Coca-Cola 600. This will be the first road course start he's had in Cup.
But in the Truck Series, Smith has two road course wins in eight starts, plus six top 10s. His average finish on road courses is 9.1, and he raced here at Sonoma last year, where he finished second behind Kyle Busch.
Might take a little chaos for this to pay off, but I think Smith carries a lot of upside into today's race.
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