👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


Top Power-Metric Gainers - What to Expect in 2017

The baseball universe is really coming into its own when it comes to advanced data metrics that we can parse through, with hard-hit rates, exit velocities, spray charts and batted-ball outcomes all becoming accessible tools to throw in the toolkit before we go digging for answers.

Today's piece caps off our short series looking at those who posted gains in hard-hit, pull and fly ball rates in 2016 -- categories that are largely associated with power. We've looked at all three of these metrics individually, but now we're going to tie it all together and look at the names who had at least a 4% gain in each stat. While we're not going to go overboard and expect the world of them in 2017, it's nice to be able to look back at their 2016 stats and know their results weren't just some fluky HR/FB luck.

We're including players here that have accrued at least 200 PAs in both 2015 and 2016 to have something actionable to utilize, but we'll omit names that are only relevant in 50-team leagues in order to address viable options.

Featured Promo: Save 50% the regular price with discount code SPRING, for a limited time. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, DFS cheat sheets, Lineup Optimizers, betting/prop picks, and exclusive content from Nick Mariano and Eric Cross! GAIN ACCESS NOW

 

Top Power-Metric Gainers in 2016

Player Name Hard Hit Gain Pull Rate Gain Fly Ball Rate Gain Average Gain
Yasmany Tomas 10% 9.30% 8.20% 9.17%
Matt Holliday 5.20% 12.70% 6.90% 8.27%
Salvador Perez 9.80% 4.40% 9.70% 7.97%
Kevin Kiermaier 6.80% 8.20% 8.30% 7.77%
Jason Kipnis 5.10% 5.50% 9.30% 6.63%
Brad Miller 4.80% 9.60% 5.40% 6.60%
Christian Yelich 4.90% 4.30% 5% 4.73%

 

What to Expect From These Power-Metric Gainers?

Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks – 3B/OF

Tomas is the poster boy for this whole series, as he leads the pack with gains above 8% in all three categories that we’ve analyzed. While some of this is due to his underwhelming 2015 where he only hit nine homers in 426 plate appearances, that still doesn’t mean he was guaranteed to turn it around. The only real question one has to ask themselves is whether they believe in Tomas’ new form that he showed at age-25 and how much regression might hit him. It’s highly unlikely that he can post a 25% HR/FB rate again (tied with Chris Davis) and create such wild value out of a below league-average 31.4% fly-ball rate, but with his other gains then he just might not drop off as much as others fear – let alone if he actually continues to grow.

Matt Holliday, New York Yankees – 1B/OF

Holliday wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for an injury-hampered 2015 campaign that made his return to “normal” Hollidian levels appear so dramatic. That said, there was no guarantee that the aging slugger was going to be able to bounce back so this is still nice to see – especially before he begins his service at the sandbox known as Yankee Stadium. While his .246 average from ’16 was easily a career worst, it makes sense considering these power-oriented gains he showed. The 20 homers in only 426 PAs matched his 20 homers from 2014, except he needed 667 PAs to do so then. While owners won’t be upset if he reverts back toward his .270s average and lesser power ways, he could blast 25+ homers in Yankee Stadium. He’s currently 12-for-39 with four homers (1.075 OPS) in Spring Training, so I’m buying.

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals - C

Perez has slowly turned himself into your stereotypical loud-power, middling-average catcher after six big-league seasons. He hit .331 in his rookie showing of 2011 (158 plate appearances) before hitting .301, .292, .260, .260 and most recently, .247. This has been paired with homer totals of 11, 13, 17, 21 and 22 over the last five seasons, though he hadn’t ever seen an uptick in metrics across the board like this before. He hadn’t ever seen a strikeout rate increase as dramatic either, though (14.8% to 21.8%). Look for the power to play up yet again in 2017 as his swing continues to profile in a more “slugger” fashion. It’d be ideal if Kauffman Stadium was more hitter-friendly and if the Royals had a little more to offer in the counting stats, but 60 runs and RBIs should join his 20+ homers to make for solid value.

Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays - OF

Kiermaier flashed his double-digit pop with 20-steal potential in 2015 before really becoming a more extreme power hitter in ’16 with an above-average fly-ball rate with a much healthier hard-hit rate. The pull rate holding near 50% with the fly balls should point to how a guy with serious wheels can only muster a .246 average (.278 BABIP). Think of how Billy Hamilton suffered by hitting too many flies instead of peppering grounders and letting his legs help him out. The difference here is that Kiermaier actually houses the power to leave the yard with some regularity. If he holds onto most of these gains then he could hit 15-18 homers with 25-30 steals, with potential for a solid run total if he gets a piece of the leadoff-platoon pie.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians – 2B

Kipnis had gone through two disappointing seasons in a row with a power-zapped 2014-15 that saw him only hit 15 homers in 1,196 plate PAs (compared to 17 in 2013 – 658 PAs). While he wasn’t bad in 2015 – he hit a career-high .303 – it was just underwhelming after a promising upward trajectory was cut down by an injury-laden age-27 season. Kipnis then partied like it was 2013 last season, as nearly all of his metrics read similarly to that superb season (though he only stole 15 bases in ’16 compared to 30 in ’13). After posting HR/FB rates of 4.8% and 6.9%, he brought that mark up to 13.1% (12.4% in ’13). While we need him to rebound from this early-season injury, Kipnis should still have the profile of a guy who can hit 18 homers and swipe double-digit bags with a healthy average and counting stats.

Brad Miller, Tampa Bay Rays – 1B/SS

Miller clearly put power on the forefront of his to-do list in the middle of 2016 after a rough first two months of the season, as the 27-year-old went on to blast 25 homers over the final four months of ’16. Interestingly, his batted-ball rates really didn’t fluctuate that much between those unfortunate first two months and the final four outside of a low 29.2% fly-ball rate in May (when he hit for better average, .291). His HR/FB rate shot up from around 15% to 26.9% in July and 33.3% in August before coming back down to 16.7% in September/October. Let’s assume the mid-to-high teens are his usual, with spikes possible. His fantasy owners in daily formats should be mindful of his lesser power against lefties, as he only slugged .373 against them (.509 vs. RHP) thanks to a 30.8% hard-hit rate (36.1% vs. RHP).

Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins - OF

Yelich has long been known for his plus speed/average and groundball ways, but had always teased us with such a good hitting tool that he could feasibly become a five-category contributor if he could just stop trying to kill groundhogs at the dish. 2016 saw him finally flip the switch, as these modest gains in all three power-hitting metrics aligned to yield a lofty 23.6% HR/FB rate (up from 12.5%) that saw him hit 21 homers after mashing only seven in ’15. His ground-ball rate had so much to give that he still turned in a 56.5% mark and sustained a high .356 BABIP – allowing him to keep his high average (.298) – but with all of these things coming together, it just meant that those increased fly balls became that much more valuable as the young outfielder vaulted his way into the top-10 OF conversation.

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Josh Sweat

Cardinals Won't Trade Josh Sweat
Mac Jones

Not Throwing Due to "Soreness"
Aaron Judge

to Undergo Additional Imaging
Adonai Mitchell

Chemistry With New Jets QB is Growing
Darnell Washington

Steelers, Darnell Washington Agree to Four-Year Extension
Micah Parsons

Eyeing a Mid-October Return After Having Another Knee Surgery
Rome Odunze

Foot Injury Still an Issue Going into 2026 Season?
Ketel Marte

Out on Wednesday With Back, Hamstring Injuries
Mitchell Robinson

is Available for Game 1 on Wednesday
Kawhi Leonard

Unlikely to be Traded
Chicago Bulls

Bulls Host Potential Lottery Picks for Workout
Washington Wizards

Wizards Considering Trading Down in Draft
Russell Wilson

Retiring From the NFL
Corbin Burnes

has Teres Major Strain, Unlikely to Return Until September
Malik Davis

Appears to be the Front-Runner for RB2 Job in Dallas
Kayshon Boutte

to Compete for Snaps in Three-Receiver Sets
Alvin Kamara

Attends OTAs on Wednesday
Andrei Iosivas

Is it Time for Dynasty Managers to Drop Andrei Iosivas?
Tyjae Spears

Is Tyjae Spears Droppable in Dynasty Formats?
Jaylen Wright

the Dynasty Handcuff Running Back to Own in Miami?
Colby Parkinson

Facing Likely Regression After Career Year in 2025
Omarion Hampton

Remains a High-End Dynasty RB1 Despite Injury History
Rickie Fowler

Looks To Continue Resurgent Season At Memorial
Ollie Gordon II

Is Ollie Gordon II Still Worthy of a Dynasty Roster Spot?
Justin Herbert

Overhauling his Footwork This Offseason
De'Von Achane

Doing Individual Drills at Minicamp
Ashton Jeanty

Raiders Emphasizing Ashton Jeanty's Progress as Their Lead Back
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Still on the Mend From 2025 Injuries
Brandon Aiyuk

Warrant Issued for Brandon Aiyuk's Arrest in California
CFB

Can Eric Singleton Jr. Fully Break Out at Third School?
CFB

Katin Houser Steps into QB1 Role for Illinois
CFB

Savion Hiter an Immediate Impact Freshman for Michigan
CFB

Isaiah Horton Set to Take Over KC Concepcion's Role
CFB

UCLA Transfer Karson Gordon Signs with Austin Peay
CFB

Will Muschamp Bringing New Intensity to Texas Practices
Gary Woodland

Brings Boom-or-Bust Potential to Memorial
Jordan Spieth

Still Searching for a Breakthrough
Alex Smalley

Brings Elite Form to Memorial Tournament
Justin Rose

Looks to Recapture Memorial Tournament Success
Cameron Young

Looks to Get Back to His Contending Ways at Murifield Village
Chris Gotterup

Needs to Find Fairways at Muirfield Village
Si Woo Kim

Looks to Stay Hot at Memorial Tournament
Matt Fitzpatrick

Positioned for Success at Muirfield Village
Jalen Chatfield

Records Two Assists in Tuesday's Loss
Keegan Bradley

Looking for Another Strong Finish at Muirfield
Nikolaj Ehlers

Nets Two Goals in Game 1 Loss to Golden Knights
Shea Theodore

Notches Three Points in Game 1 Win
Brayden McNabb

Sets Up Three Goals in Game 1 Win Over Hurricanes
Justin Thomas

is an Exciting Play This Week in Ohio
Brett Howden

Starts Finals With Multi-Point Effort
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Win Memorial Tournament for Third Consecutive Year
Tomas Hertl

Scores Game-Winner in Finals Opener
Rory McIlroy

Looking for Better Performance at Muirfield Village
Drake Baldwin

Could Return During Braves Next Homestand
Garrett Crochet

Diagnosed With Low-Grade Lat Strain
Russell Henley

Coming to Ohio on the Heels of Latest Victory
Tommy Fleetwood

Looking for Better Iron Play at Memorial Tournament
Patrick Cantlay

Looks to Continue Dominance at Muirfield Village
Ludvig Aberg

a Great Fit for Muirfield Village
Isaiah Hartenstein

Hopeful to Stay with Oklahoma City
Luguentz Dort

Wants to Remain with Thunder
Mitchell Robinson

is Questionable for Game 1
Moussa Diabaté

Moussa Diabate Has Contract Guaranteed for 2026-2027 Season
Oso Ighodaro

Gets Guaranteed Contract for Next Season
NAS

Chris MacFarland Joins Predators as President and General Manager
VAN

Canucks Name Manny Malhotra as New Head Coach
Brendan Gallagher

to Leave Canadiens This Offseason
Patrik Laine

Looking Forward to Free Agency
Jeremy Lauzon

Returns to Action Tuesday
Zach Werenski

Wins 2025-26 Norris Trophy
Aaron Judge

Out on Tuesday With Rib/Shoulder Injury
Josh Hader

Set to Return from Injured List on Tuesday
CFB

SEC Coach Calls Buster Faulkner a "Home-Run Hire"
CFB

Auburn a Sleeper in the SEC Under Alex Golesh?
CFB

Noah Fifita Primed for Strong 2026 Campaign
CFB

Oregon Assistant Coach Charged with DUII, Reckless Driving
CFB

Tight End Nick Pollack Commits to Clemson
Akshay Bhatia

Needs the Driver to be True in Ohio
Aaron Rai

Primed to take on the Memorial Tournament
J.J. Spaun

Rebounded at Charles Schwab Challenge
Xander Schauffele

One to Watch This Week in Ohio
Elly De La Cruz

to Miss 2-4 Weeks of Action
Chase Burns

is Scratched Due to Illness
Deiveson Figueiredo

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Song Yadong

Gets Second-Round Submission Win
Zhang Mingyang

Suffers Back-To-Back Losses
Alonzo Menifield

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Sergei Pavlovich

Scores First-Round Knockout Win
Cameron Smotherman

Suffers Third Loss In A Row
Edwin Arroyo

Reds Promote Top Infield Prospect Edwin Arroyo, Viewed as Priority Pick Up Ahead of MLB Debut
Kai Asakura

Earns His First UFC Win
Elly De La Cruz

Placed on IL with Right Hamstring Tightness
Denny Hamlin

Earns the first Nashville Cup Series Victory of his Career on Sunday
Christopher Bell

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Earns First Career Podium Finish at Nashville
Ryan Blaney

Scores A Solid Top-10 Finish at Nashville
Kyle Larson

Top-10 Streak at Nashville Ends after Late Flat Tire Spin
Elly De La Cruz

Exits with Hamstring Tightness
Tyler Reddick

Is One of the Top Favorites to Win at Nashville
Kyle Larson

May Continue his Top-10 Consistency at Nashville this week
Christopher Bell

Is One of the Top Competitors for the Win at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Is A Must Start for Nashville DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

has Plenty of Upside for Nashville DFS Lineups
William Byron

Is William Byron A Playable DFS Option for Nashville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar

Is Likely to have Another Solid Result at Nashville
NASCAR

Should Fantasy Players Roster Bubba Wallace at Nashville?
Chris Buescher

Is A Decent All-Around DFS Option for Nashville Lineups
Daniel Suarez

is Likely to Drop Positions during the Cracker Barrel 400
Garrett Crochet

Suffers Setback, Likely to Undergo MRI for Lat Tightness
Denny Hamlin

Could Denny Hamlin Dominate at Nashville?
Ryan Blaney

Is a DFS Tournament Option at Nashville
Ty Gibbs

Don't Overlook Ty Gibbs at Nashville
Joey Logano

Could Show Life at Nashville
Ross Chastain

Needs a Good Run at Nashville
Chet Holmgren

Fails to Step Up in the Season Finale
Cason Wallace

Ends Postseason with Strong Showing
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Caps MVP Season with Game 7 Exit
Stephon Castle

Continues Postseason Run with 16 Points
Julian Champagnie

Shines in Series-Clinching Win
De'Aaron Fox

Provides Secondary Punch in Game 7 Triumph
Victor Wembanyama

Earns Conference Finals MVP in Spurs' Game 7 Win
NBA

Warriors Prioritize Depth Around Returning Steve Kerr
Donovan Mitchell

Remains Cleveland's Top Priority
Adou Thiero

Remains a Lakers Development Project
NBA

76ers Hire Mike Gansey as President of Basketball Operations
NBA

Chicago Bulls Explore Kevin Young as Coaching Candidate
Lane Hutson

Posts a Power-Play Assist in Game 5 Loss
Cole Caufield

Nets a Power-Play Goal in Season-Ending Loss
Seth Jarvis

Closes Out East Finals With Multi-Point Game
Logan Stankoven

Notches Three Points in Big Game 5 Win
Taylor Hall

Racks Up Three Points in Series-Clinching Win
Frederik Andersen

Remains Stellar as Hurricanes Clinch Finals Berth
Jacob Gonzalez

is Heading to the Big Leagues
Munetaka Murakami

Exits with Hamstring Tightness
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez is Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Deiveson Figueiredo

Set For UFC Macau Main Event
MMA

Yadong Song Returns At UFC Macau
Alonzo Menifield

An Underdog At UFC Macau
Zhang Mingyang

Set For UFC Macau Co-Main Event
Tallison Teixeira

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Sergei Pavlovich

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Cameron Smotherman

Looks To Bounce Back
Kai Asakura

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
CFB

Faizon Brandon In Position to Start Week 1
CFB

Dane Weber Commits to Cal
CFB

Joey McGuire Attempts to Add Texas to Schedule
CFB

Mike Leach on 2027 College Football Hall of Fame Ballot
CFB

Maryland, Baylor Schedule Home-and-Home
CFB

Taron Dickens Decommits From North Carolina
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF