👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


Top Power-Metric Gainers - What to Expect in 2017

The baseball universe is really coming into its own when it comes to advanced data metrics that we can parse through, with hard-hit rates, exit velocities, spray charts and batted-ball outcomes all becoming accessible tools to throw in the toolkit before we go digging for answers.

Today's piece caps off our short series looking at those who posted gains in hard-hit, pull and fly ball rates in 2016 -- categories that are largely associated with power. We've looked at all three of these metrics individually, but now we're going to tie it all together and look at the names who had at least a 4% gain in each stat. While we're not going to go overboard and expect the world of them in 2017, it's nice to be able to look back at their 2016 stats and know their results weren't just some fluky HR/FB luck.

We're including players here that have accrued at least 200 PAs in both 2015 and 2016 to have something actionable to utilize, but we'll omit names that are only relevant in 50-team leagues in order to address viable options.

Featured Promo: Save 50% the regular price with discount code SPRING, for a limited time. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, DFS cheat sheets, Lineup Optimizers, betting/prop picks, and exclusive content from Nick Mariano and Eric Cross! GAIN ACCESS NOW

 

Top Power-Metric Gainers in 2016

Player Name Hard Hit Gain Pull Rate Gain Fly Ball Rate Gain Average Gain
Yasmany Tomas 10% 9.30% 8.20% 9.17%
Matt Holliday 5.20% 12.70% 6.90% 8.27%
Salvador Perez 9.80% 4.40% 9.70% 7.97%
Kevin Kiermaier 6.80% 8.20% 8.30% 7.77%
Jason Kipnis 5.10% 5.50% 9.30% 6.63%
Brad Miller 4.80% 9.60% 5.40% 6.60%
Christian Yelich 4.90% 4.30% 5% 4.73%

 

What to Expect From These Power-Metric Gainers?

Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks – 3B/OF

Tomas is the poster boy for this whole series, as he leads the pack with gains above 8% in all three categories that we’ve analyzed. While some of this is due to his underwhelming 2015 where he only hit nine homers in 426 plate appearances, that still doesn’t mean he was guaranteed to turn it around. The only real question one has to ask themselves is whether they believe in Tomas’ new form that he showed at age-25 and how much regression might hit him. It’s highly unlikely that he can post a 25% HR/FB rate again (tied with Chris Davis) and create such wild value out of a below league-average 31.4% fly-ball rate, but with his other gains then he just might not drop off as much as others fear – let alone if he actually continues to grow.

Matt Holliday, New York Yankees – 1B/OF

Holliday wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for an injury-hampered 2015 campaign that made his return to “normal” Hollidian levels appear so dramatic. That said, there was no guarantee that the aging slugger was going to be able to bounce back so this is still nice to see – especially before he begins his service at the sandbox known as Yankee Stadium. While his .246 average from ’16 was easily a career worst, it makes sense considering these power-oriented gains he showed. The 20 homers in only 426 PAs matched his 20 homers from 2014, except he needed 667 PAs to do so then. While owners won’t be upset if he reverts back toward his .270s average and lesser power ways, he could blast 25+ homers in Yankee Stadium. He’s currently 12-for-39 with four homers (1.075 OPS) in Spring Training, so I’m buying.

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals - C

Perez has slowly turned himself into your stereotypical loud-power, middling-average catcher after six big-league seasons. He hit .331 in his rookie showing of 2011 (158 plate appearances) before hitting .301, .292, .260, .260 and most recently, .247. This has been paired with homer totals of 11, 13, 17, 21 and 22 over the last five seasons, though he hadn’t ever seen an uptick in metrics across the board like this before. He hadn’t ever seen a strikeout rate increase as dramatic either, though (14.8% to 21.8%). Look for the power to play up yet again in 2017 as his swing continues to profile in a more “slugger” fashion. It’d be ideal if Kauffman Stadium was more hitter-friendly and if the Royals had a little more to offer in the counting stats, but 60 runs and RBIs should join his 20+ homers to make for solid value.

Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays - OF

Kiermaier flashed his double-digit pop with 20-steal potential in 2015 before really becoming a more extreme power hitter in ’16 with an above-average fly-ball rate with a much healthier hard-hit rate. The pull rate holding near 50% with the fly balls should point to how a guy with serious wheels can only muster a .246 average (.278 BABIP). Think of how Billy Hamilton suffered by hitting too many flies instead of peppering grounders and letting his legs help him out. The difference here is that Kiermaier actually houses the power to leave the yard with some regularity. If he holds onto most of these gains then he could hit 15-18 homers with 25-30 steals, with potential for a solid run total if he gets a piece of the leadoff-platoon pie.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians – 2B

Kipnis had gone through two disappointing seasons in a row with a power-zapped 2014-15 that saw him only hit 15 homers in 1,196 plate PAs (compared to 17 in 2013 – 658 PAs). While he wasn’t bad in 2015 – he hit a career-high .303 – it was just underwhelming after a promising upward trajectory was cut down by an injury-laden age-27 season. Kipnis then partied like it was 2013 last season, as nearly all of his metrics read similarly to that superb season (though he only stole 15 bases in ’16 compared to 30 in ’13). After posting HR/FB rates of 4.8% and 6.9%, he brought that mark up to 13.1% (12.4% in ’13). While we need him to rebound from this early-season injury, Kipnis should still have the profile of a guy who can hit 18 homers and swipe double-digit bags with a healthy average and counting stats.

Brad Miller, Tampa Bay Rays – 1B/SS

Miller clearly put power on the forefront of his to-do list in the middle of 2016 after a rough first two months of the season, as the 27-year-old went on to blast 25 homers over the final four months of ’16. Interestingly, his batted-ball rates really didn’t fluctuate that much between those unfortunate first two months and the final four outside of a low 29.2% fly-ball rate in May (when he hit for better average, .291). His HR/FB rate shot up from around 15% to 26.9% in July and 33.3% in August before coming back down to 16.7% in September/October. Let’s assume the mid-to-high teens are his usual, with spikes possible. His fantasy owners in daily formats should be mindful of his lesser power against lefties, as he only slugged .373 against them (.509 vs. RHP) thanks to a 30.8% hard-hit rate (36.1% vs. RHP).

Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins - OF

Yelich has long been known for his plus speed/average and groundball ways, but had always teased us with such a good hitting tool that he could feasibly become a five-category contributor if he could just stop trying to kill groundhogs at the dish. 2016 saw him finally flip the switch, as these modest gains in all three power-hitting metrics aligned to yield a lofty 23.6% HR/FB rate (up from 12.5%) that saw him hit 21 homers after mashing only seven in ’15. His ground-ball rate had so much to give that he still turned in a 56.5% mark and sustained a high .356 BABIP – allowing him to keep his high average (.298) – but with all of these things coming together, it just meant that those increased fly balls became that much more valuable as the young outfielder vaulted his way into the top-10 OF conversation.

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Rashee Rice

Chiefs Have No Plans to Sign Rashee Rice to Long-Term Extension
Daniel Suarez

Wins at Charlotte in Rain-Shortened Coca-Cola 600
Christopher Bell

Finishes as the Runner-Up in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte
Denny Hamlin

Falls Short of Winning and Places Third at Charlotte
Tyler Reddick

Places Fourth After Leading Laps at Charlotte
Kyle Larson

Strong and Consistent Day Ends in Fifth at Charlotte
Cole Payton

Dynasty Managers Will Have to be Patient with Cole Payton
Taylen Green

Does Taylen Green's Speed Get Him on the Dynasty Radar?
Jack Endries

Is Jack Endries the Tight End of the Future in Cincinnati?
CJ Daniels

a Developmental Stash in Dynasty Leagues
Garrett Nussmeier

a Low-Risk Target with Upside in Dynasty Leagues?
Jam Miller

Has Sneaky Value if He Can Earn a Roster Spot
Justice Hill

a Dynasty Drop Candidate Wherever He's Still Rostered
J'Mari Taylor

Is J'Mari Taylor Worth a Taxi-Squad Spot in Deep Dynasty Leagues?
Greg Dulcich

Has a Lack of Competition Made Greg Dulcich a Dynasty Sleeper?
Carson Beck

a Worthy Investment in the Later Rounds of Rookie Drafts
Devon Toews

Logs Two Assists In Game 3 Defeat
Brett Howden

Nets 10th Postseason Goal
Mitchell Marner

Delivers Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Mark Stone

Returns With Multi-Point Effort
Valeri Nichushkin

Exits Early Sunday
Nathan MacKinnon

Hurt in Game 3 Loss
Isaiah Hartenstein

Provides Steady Production in Defeat
Chet Holmgren

Has a Quiet Offensive Night on Sunday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Held Under 20 Points in Game 4
Stephon Castle

Hands Out Six Assists in Game 4 Win
Devin Vassell

Tallies 13 Points in Game 4 Win
De'Aaron Fox

Records Double-Double as Spurs Even Series
Victor Wembanyama

Sets Tone Early as Spurs Force a Pivotal Game 5
Isaac Guerendo

Could be a Drop Candidate in Dynasty Leagues in 2026
Jayden Higgins

' Dynasty Arrow is Pointing Up With Clear Path to WR2 Role in Houston
Jakobi Meyers

a Sell-High Candidate in Dynasty Formats?
Drake Maye

to Make a Big Leap in 2026 in Second Season With Josh McDaniels?
Jamal Murray

Earns First Career All-NBA Selection
Kevin Durant

Becomes First Player to Make All-NBA Team With Five Franchises
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Victor Wembanyama Lead All-NBA First Team
Taylor Hall

Enjoying Life in Carolina
Mark Stone

Returns to Action Sunday
Cale Makar

Rejoins Avalanche Lineup Sunday
Cason Wallace

Joins Starting Unit Sunday
De'Aaron Fox

Doesn't "Feel Great" Entering Game 4
Jalen Williams

Won't Play Sunday
Christian Watson

Is Christian Watson on the Verge of a Legitimate Breakout?
Khalil Shakir

Dynasty Value in Decline
Travis Hunter

Still a Risky Buy, Even at his Sunken Dynasty Cost
Gunnar Helm

a Dynasty Sleeper with Room to Grow
Drake Maye

Is Drake Maye Becoming the Most Valuable Player in Superflex Dynasty Leagues?
Dylan Cease

Removed From Sunday's Start With Hamstring Discomfort
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Exits Sunday's Game Early with Elbow Contusion
MLB

Reds-Cardinals Game Postponed on Sunday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Place Edward Cabrera on the 15-Day Injured List
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Win at Charlotte
Tyler Reddick

on Pole for Coca-Cola 600
Christopher Bell

Could Break Out of Slump
Kyle Larson

May have A Solid Day at Charlotte
Ryan Blaney

Is A DFS Risk for Charlotte Lineups
William Byron

Could have A Great DFS Performance at Charlotte
Chase Briscoe

Is A Solid Tournament Option for Charlotte DFS Lineups
Pat Freiermuth

Steelers Restructure Pat Freiermuth's Contract
Ty Gibbs

May not be Worth his Salary for Charlotte DFS Lineups
Chris Buescher

May be a Sneaky Tournament Option for Charlotte Lineups
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has Favorable Upside for Charlotte DFS Lineups
Ross Chastain

Is A Strong Addition for DFS Lineups at Charlotte
Austin Dillon

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Austin Dillon for Charlotte DFS Lineups?
Chase Elliott

Should Be Strong at Charlotte
Carson Hocevar

Confident for Coca-Cola 600
Corey Heim

a Chalk DFS Pick at Charlotte
Michael McDowell

Is Michael McDowell A Tournament Option for Charlotte Lineups?
Evan Mobley

Tallies Series-High 24 Points on Saturday
Donovan Mitchell

Struggles at the Line Saturday
Karl-Anthony Towns

Continues Playmaking Surge on Saturday
OG Anunoby

Delivers Clean Shooting Line Saturday
Mikal Bridges

Fills Box Score in Game 3 Win
Jalen Brunson

Pushes Knicks Closer to NBA Finals
Orlando Magic

Magic Interview Jeff Van Gundy for Head-Coaching Position
Phillip Danault

Extends Point Streak to Three Games
Josh Anderson

Nets Two Goals in Painful Loss
Jalen Chatfield

Delivers Two Assists in Crucial Win
Mark Jankowski

Contributes Two Assists in Game 2 Victory
Eric Robinson

Scores in Second Consecutive Game
Nikolaj Ehlers

Tallies Two Goals as Hurricanes Bounce Back Saturday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Magic Reportedly Have Giannis Antetokounmpo on Their Radar
MLB

Orioles-Tigers Game Postponed on Saturday
MLB

Rays-Yankees Postponed on Saturday
Nazem Kadri

Contributes an Assist in Losing Effort
Ross Colton

Nets Lone Avalanche Goal Friday Night
Rasmus Andersson

Extends Assist Streak to Four Games
Pavel Dorofeyev

Focuses on Playmaking in Friday's Win
Jack Eichel

Enjoys Multi-Point Outing in Game 2 Win Friday
Ivan Barbashev

Amasses Three Points as Golden Knights Grab 2-0 Series Lead
Mickey Moniak

Heads to Injured List With Ankle Sprain
Jackson Merrill

has Sore Ribs, Expected to Avoid Injured List
CFB

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Looking to Take Sophomore Leap
CFB

Jadan Baugh Primed to Lead Florida Offense in 2026
CFB

LSU Hires Ed Orgeron As Special Assistant
CFB

North Carolina and South Carolina Cancel Home-And-Home Series
CFB

Confidence High in Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor
MLB

Reds-Cardinals Game Postponed on Friday
Trevor Story

has Hernia Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-10 Weeks
Roman Anthony

Dealing With Sprained Ligament in his Finger
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Exits Early, X-Rays Come Back Negative
Robby Snelling

Will Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Jackson Merrill

Tweaks his Back on Wednesday, Pulled Early
CFB

Lincoln Riley Believes USC is Ready for Playoff Run
CFB

Notre Dame-Stanford Rivalry Renewed Through 2028
CFB

Ahmad Hardy Says He's "Back to the Road to Success"
CFB

Texas Tech Graduate Judge Recuses Himself from Brendan Sorsby Case
CFB

UCLA Tackle Jordan Davis Officially Eligible for 2026 Season
CFB

Bret Bielema Supports Significant College Football Playoff Expansion
Michael Thorbjornsen

Brings High Upside to CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Luke List

Carrying Poor Form Into CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Tom Kim

Hoping to Build on Strong Myrtle Beach Finish
PGA

Sungjae Im Brings Upside to TPC Craig Ranch
Billy Horschel

Looking for Turnaround at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Adam Hadwin

Difficult to Trust at TPC Craig Ranch
Tony Finau

Looking for Consistency at TPC Craig Ranch
Luke Clanton

Searching for Form at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Aaron Rai

Withdraws From CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Wyndham Clark

Can Wyndham Clark Find Form at CJ Cup?
Si Woo Kim

Looks To Stay Hot at CJ Cup
Scottie Scheffler

to Defend CJ Cup Byron Nelson Title This Week
Jordan Spieth

Looking For Victory at TPC Craig Ranch
PGA

Matti Schmid Looks to Keep Recent Momentum Going at TPC Craig Ranch
Brooks Koepka

a High-Upside Play at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Exits Early on Tuesday After Being Hit By Pitch
Chris Kirk

Continues Search For Putting Form at TPC Craig Ranch
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking to Shake Off Poor Major Showing at TPC Craig Ranch
Joel Dahmen

is of No DFS Consideration This Week in Dallas
Pierceson Coody

is Not The Fun DFS Play He Used to Be
Gerrit Cole

to Make Season Debut on Friday Against Rays
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF