👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


Top Power-Metric Gainers - What to Expect in 2017

The baseball universe is really coming into its own when it comes to advanced data metrics that we can parse through, with hard-hit rates, exit velocities, spray charts and batted-ball outcomes all becoming accessible tools to throw in the toolkit before we go digging for answers.

Today's piece caps off our short series looking at those who posted gains in hard-hit, pull and fly ball rates in 2016 -- categories that are largely associated with power. We've looked at all three of these metrics individually, but now we're going to tie it all together and look at the names who had at least a 4% gain in each stat. While we're not going to go overboard and expect the world of them in 2017, it's nice to be able to look back at their 2016 stats and know their results weren't just some fluky HR/FB luck.

We're including players here that have accrued at least 200 PAs in both 2015 and 2016 to have something actionable to utilize, but we'll omit names that are only relevant in 50-team leagues in order to address viable options.

Featured Promo: Save 50% the regular price with discount code SPRING, for a limited time. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, DFS cheat sheets, Lineup Optimizers, betting/prop picks, and exclusive content from Nick Mariano and Eric Cross! GAIN ACCESS NOW

 

Top Power-Metric Gainers in 2016

Player Name Hard Hit Gain Pull Rate Gain Fly Ball Rate Gain Average Gain
Yasmany Tomas 10% 9.30% 8.20% 9.17%
Matt Holliday 5.20% 12.70% 6.90% 8.27%
Salvador Perez 9.80% 4.40% 9.70% 7.97%
Kevin Kiermaier 6.80% 8.20% 8.30% 7.77%
Jason Kipnis 5.10% 5.50% 9.30% 6.63%
Brad Miller 4.80% 9.60% 5.40% 6.60%
Christian Yelich 4.90% 4.30% 5% 4.73%

 

What to Expect From These Power-Metric Gainers?

Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks – 3B/OF

Tomas is the poster boy for this whole series, as he leads the pack with gains above 8% in all three categories that we’ve analyzed. While some of this is due to his underwhelming 2015 where he only hit nine homers in 426 plate appearances, that still doesn’t mean he was guaranteed to turn it around. The only real question one has to ask themselves is whether they believe in Tomas’ new form that he showed at age-25 and how much regression might hit him. It’s highly unlikely that he can post a 25% HR/FB rate again (tied with Chris Davis) and create such wild value out of a below league-average 31.4% fly-ball rate, but with his other gains then he just might not drop off as much as others fear – let alone if he actually continues to grow.

Matt Holliday, New York Yankees – 1B/OF

Holliday wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for an injury-hampered 2015 campaign that made his return to “normal” Hollidian levels appear so dramatic. That said, there was no guarantee that the aging slugger was going to be able to bounce back so this is still nice to see – especially before he begins his service at the sandbox known as Yankee Stadium. While his .246 average from ’16 was easily a career worst, it makes sense considering these power-oriented gains he showed. The 20 homers in only 426 PAs matched his 20 homers from 2014, except he needed 667 PAs to do so then. While owners won’t be upset if he reverts back toward his .270s average and lesser power ways, he could blast 25+ homers in Yankee Stadium. He’s currently 12-for-39 with four homers (1.075 OPS) in Spring Training, so I’m buying.

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals - C

Perez has slowly turned himself into your stereotypical loud-power, middling-average catcher after six big-league seasons. He hit .331 in his rookie showing of 2011 (158 plate appearances) before hitting .301, .292, .260, .260 and most recently, .247. This has been paired with homer totals of 11, 13, 17, 21 and 22 over the last five seasons, though he hadn’t ever seen an uptick in metrics across the board like this before. He hadn’t ever seen a strikeout rate increase as dramatic either, though (14.8% to 21.8%). Look for the power to play up yet again in 2017 as his swing continues to profile in a more “slugger” fashion. It’d be ideal if Kauffman Stadium was more hitter-friendly and if the Royals had a little more to offer in the counting stats, but 60 runs and RBIs should join his 20+ homers to make for solid value.

Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays - OF

Kiermaier flashed his double-digit pop with 20-steal potential in 2015 before really becoming a more extreme power hitter in ’16 with an above-average fly-ball rate with a much healthier hard-hit rate. The pull rate holding near 50% with the fly balls should point to how a guy with serious wheels can only muster a .246 average (.278 BABIP). Think of how Billy Hamilton suffered by hitting too many flies instead of peppering grounders and letting his legs help him out. The difference here is that Kiermaier actually houses the power to leave the yard with some regularity. If he holds onto most of these gains then he could hit 15-18 homers with 25-30 steals, with potential for a solid run total if he gets a piece of the leadoff-platoon pie.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians – 2B

Kipnis had gone through two disappointing seasons in a row with a power-zapped 2014-15 that saw him only hit 15 homers in 1,196 plate PAs (compared to 17 in 2013 – 658 PAs). While he wasn’t bad in 2015 – he hit a career-high .303 – it was just underwhelming after a promising upward trajectory was cut down by an injury-laden age-27 season. Kipnis then partied like it was 2013 last season, as nearly all of his metrics read similarly to that superb season (though he only stole 15 bases in ’16 compared to 30 in ’13). After posting HR/FB rates of 4.8% and 6.9%, he brought that mark up to 13.1% (12.4% in ’13). While we need him to rebound from this early-season injury, Kipnis should still have the profile of a guy who can hit 18 homers and swipe double-digit bags with a healthy average and counting stats.

Brad Miller, Tampa Bay Rays – 1B/SS

Miller clearly put power on the forefront of his to-do list in the middle of 2016 after a rough first two months of the season, as the 27-year-old went on to blast 25 homers over the final four months of ’16. Interestingly, his batted-ball rates really didn’t fluctuate that much between those unfortunate first two months and the final four outside of a low 29.2% fly-ball rate in May (when he hit for better average, .291). His HR/FB rate shot up from around 15% to 26.9% in July and 33.3% in August before coming back down to 16.7% in September/October. Let’s assume the mid-to-high teens are his usual, with spikes possible. His fantasy owners in daily formats should be mindful of his lesser power against lefties, as he only slugged .373 against them (.509 vs. RHP) thanks to a 30.8% hard-hit rate (36.1% vs. RHP).

Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins - OF

Yelich has long been known for his plus speed/average and groundball ways, but had always teased us with such a good hitting tool that he could feasibly become a five-category contributor if he could just stop trying to kill groundhogs at the dish. 2016 saw him finally flip the switch, as these modest gains in all three power-hitting metrics aligned to yield a lofty 23.6% HR/FB rate (up from 12.5%) that saw him hit 21 homers after mashing only seven in ’15. His ground-ball rate had so much to give that he still turned in a 56.5% mark and sustained a high .356 BABIP – allowing him to keep his high average (.298) – but with all of these things coming together, it just meant that those increased fly balls became that much more valuable as the young outfielder vaulted his way into the top-10 OF conversation.

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tarik Skubal

Dominates in Rehab Start; Return Appears Imminent
Mitchell Robinson

Available for Game 3
Chicago Bulls

Bulls Hire Alex Kaufman as Windy City Bulls General Manager
E.J. Liddell

Agrees to Two-Year Deal with Greek Club Aris
Konnor Griffin

is Looking at Extended Absence
Matas Buzelis

Will Play for Lithuania This Summer
Kenley Jansen

to Begin Rehab Assignment on Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Has Concerns About Heat Roster If Traded to Miami
Casey Mize

to Make Rehab Start on Tuesday
Bobby Witt Jr.

Exits Early with Knee Soreness
Mitchell Robinson

Has Technical Foul Rescinded After Game 2 Win
Jarquez Hunter

Is it Time for Dynasty Managers to Move on From Jarquez Hunter?
Elijah Arroyo

Worth Buying Low on in Dynasty Formats?
Tre Tucker

Profiles as a Dynasty Sell-High Candidate Entering 2026
Jack Bech

Should Dynasty Managers Target Jack Bech as a Buy-Low Candidate?
Jaydon Blue

a Dynasty Buy-Low Candidate After Underwhelming Rookie Year?
Saquon Barkley

in Line for Larger Pass-Catching Role in 2026?
Max Fried

Nearing Return to Mound Work?
Karl-Anthony Towns

Eligible for Massive Extension
Isaiah Stewart

Could Draw Trade Interest
Chase Briscoe

Is Chase Briscoe Worth Rostering for DFS at Michigan?
Philadelphia 76ers

Jameer Nelson Promoted to Executive Vice President
Domantas Sabonis

Could be Traded This Summer
Ty Gibbs

Is Ty Gibbs Worth Rostering at Michigan This Week for DFS?
William Byron

Will Start at the Rear at Michigan After Unapproved Adjustments
NASCAR

Should DFS Managers Roster Bubba Wallace at Michigan?
Joey Logano

Is Joey Logano Worth Rostering In DFS Lineups for Michigan
Daniel Suarez

Might Have Tournament Appeal for Michigan DFS Lineups
Jonah Coleman

Is Jonah Coleman the Most Valuable Broncos Running Back in Dynasty Leagues?
William Carrier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury in Game 3 Versus Golden Knights
Darius Slayton

Will Darius Slayton Be Phased Out of New-Look Giants Offense?
Sebastian Aho

Records Two Assists in Losing Effort
Alex Lange

Earns Third Save, Quickly Entering Must-Roster Status
Keaton Mitchell

Can Keaton Mitchell Carve Out a Large Enough Role for a Fantasy Breakout?
Jordan Staal

Scores in Third Consecutive Game
Shea Theodore

Caps Multi-Point Effort With Game-Winning Goal Saturday
Kayshon Boutte

Will Attend Mandatory Minicamp
Denny Hamlin

Puts DFS Managers in Tough Spot for Michigan
Chase Elliott

Can Chase Elliott Get Back to His Old Ways at Michigan?
Chris Buescher

Looking for Another Solid Run at Michigan
Tomas Hertl

Collects Two Points in Overtime Win
Jonathon Brooks

to Be Carolina's Lead Back in 2026?
Carson Hocevar

Qualifies Second, Seeking Redemption at Michigan
Ross Chastain

Can DFS Managers Trust Ross Chastain at Michigan?
Mitch Marner

Scores Fastest Hat Trick in Finals History
Brad Keselowski

Has Been Solid at Michigan
Will Smith

Scratched With Neck Stiffness, Expected to Return on Sunday
Kenneth Gainwell

Standing Out at OTAs
Bhayshul Tuten

"Picking Up Steam," More in-Tune With New Scheme
Auston Matthews

Maple Leafs Confident of Keeping Auston Matthews
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Wins Second Vezina Trophy
Brayden McNabb

Uncertain for Game 3 Against Hurricanes
Jadarian Price

Is Jadarian Price Still Undervalued in Dynasty Formats?
Isaiah Bond

Is Isaiah Bond Still Worthy of a Dynasty Roster Spot?
Michael Pittman Jr.

Dynasty Outlook Clouded by Long-Term QB Uncertainty
Stefon Diggs

Win-Now Dynasty Managers Have a Buy-Low Window on Stefon Diggs
Will Howard

Is it Time for Dynasty Managers to Drop Will Howard?
DK Metcalf

Dynasty Stock is Declining Rapidly Entering 2026
Hunter Greene

Could Return Before the All-Star Break
Isaac TeSlaa

How Will Isaac TeSlaa Follow Up on a Strong 2025 Finish?
Troy Franklin

a Dynasty Hold with Potentially Rough Times Ahead
Dylan Harper

Remains a Bright Spot for San Antonio
De'Aaron Fox

Shoots Well in a Loss to the Knicks
Victor Wembanyama

Scores 29 Points in Game 2 Loss
OG Anunoby

Anchors Knicks' Defense in Finals Game 2
Mikal Bridges

Helps Knicks Secure a Game 2 Victory
Karl-Anthony Towns

Records Another Finals Double-Double
Jalen Brunson

Overcomes Cold Night to Seal Game 2
Michael Harris II

Dealing With Back Tightness, Not Believed to be Serious
Byron Buxton

Suffers Shoulder Contusion After Colliding With the Wall
Sacramento Kings

Kings Want to Trade Their Larger Contracts
Chicago Bulls

Darius Acuff Jr. Works Out for Bulls
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Could Get Traded
MIN

Marcus Johansson Returning to Europe
Thomas White

Likely to Miss Rest of Season With Shoulder Capsular Sprain
Mitchell Robinson

is Upgraded to Available for Game 2
Cole Caufield

Earns Lady Byng Trophy
Nick Suzuki

Lands Selke Trophy
Jose Altuve

Astros Reinstate Jose Altuve From the Injured List
CFB

Reed Harris Hoping to Fill Void in Arizona State Receiving Room
CFB

Nick Marsh Gearing Up for Breakout
CFB

Drew Mestemaker Looking to Catapult Oklahoma State Offense in 2026
CFB

Rocco Becht Brings Experience to New-Look Nittany Lions
CFB

Can Trey White, Adam Trick Keep Texas Tech's Defensive Front Elite?
CFB

Devon Dampier is Key to Success for Morgan Scalley in Year 1
Aaron Judge

Yankees Officially Place Aaron Judge on Injured List With Fractured Rib
Francisco Lindor

Expected to Return in "About a Couple Weeks"
Corey Seager

Rangers Activate Corey Seager From the Injured List
Gabriel Bonfim

Set For UFC Vegas 118 Main Event
Belal Muhammad

In Dire Need Of Win
Edmen Shahbazyan

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 118
Shayne Gostisbehere

Dishes Out Two Power-Play Assists in Comeback Win
Brendan Allen

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Seth Jarvis

Ties Finals With Power-Play Goal
Mark Stone

Scores Sixth Playoff Goal in Overtime Defeat
Tom Nolan

Searches For His Fifth Consecutive Win
Mitch Marner

Records Two Assists in Game 2 Loss
Farés Ziam

Fares Ziam A Favorite At UFC Vegas 118
Brett Howden

Matches Franchise Record With Another Productive Outing
Brayden McNabb

Hospitalized After Taking Puck to Face
Aaron Judge

Diagnosed with Stress Fracture, Out 4-6 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani

has "Small" Blister, a "Non-Issue" for his Pitching Starts
Brent Rooker

Out on Thursday Due to Knee Soreness
Frederik Andersen

Hurricanes Retain Confidence in Frederik Andersen
Vincent Trocheck

Maple Leafs Interested in Vincent Trocheck
Dylan Larkin

Requests Trade From Red Wings
Corey Seager

Expected to Return This Weekend
Lucas Erceg

Royals to Mix and Match in Ninth With Lucas Erceg Struggling
Rickie Fowler

Looks To Continue Resurgent Season At Memorial
CFB

Can Eric Singleton Jr. Fully Break Out at Third School?
CFB

Katin Houser Steps into QB1 Role for Illinois
CFB

Savion Hiter an Immediate Impact Freshman for Michigan
CFB

Isaiah Horton Set to Take Over KC Concepcion's Role
CFB

UCLA Transfer Karson Gordon Signs with Austin Peay
CFB

Will Muschamp Bringing New Intensity to Texas Practices
Gary Woodland

Brings Boom-or-Bust Potential to Memorial
Jordan Spieth

Still Searching for a Breakthrough
Alex Smalley

Brings Elite Form to Memorial Tournament
Justin Rose

Looks to Recapture Memorial Tournament Success
Cameron Young

Looks to Get Back to His Contending Ways at Murifield Village
Chris Gotterup

Needs to Find Fairways at Muirfield Village
Si Woo Kim

Looks to Stay Hot at Memorial Tournament
Matt Fitzpatrick

Positioned for Success at Muirfield Village
Keegan Bradley

Looking for Another Strong Finish at Muirfield
Justin Thomas

is an Exciting Play This Week in Ohio
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Win Memorial Tournament for Third Consecutive Year
Rory McIlroy

Looking for Better Performance at Muirfield Village
Russell Henley

Coming to Ohio on the Heels of Latest Victory
Tommy Fleetwood

Looking for Better Iron Play at Memorial Tournament
Patrick Cantlay

Looks to Continue Dominance at Muirfield Village
Ludvig Aberg

a Great Fit for Muirfield Village
CFB

SEC Coach Calls Buster Faulkner a "Home-Run Hire"
CFB

Auburn a Sleeper in the SEC Under Alex Golesh?
CFB

Noah Fifita Primed for Strong 2026 Campaign
CFB

Oregon Assistant Coach Charged with DUII, Reckless Driving
CFB

Tight End Nick Pollack Commits to Clemson
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF