RADIO
In 1979 New York Times writer and inventor of rotisserie baseball Daniel Okrent created a statistic then-known as IPRAT, or “innings pitched ratio.” At a time when ERA and wins were all the rave, Okrent created a simple formula that would form the foundation of sabermetrics and eventually work its way into regular fantasy baseball categories in nearly every format.
Okrent’s equation? Walks allowed plus hits allowed, divided by innings pitched. Seems like he should have realized that WHIP is a better moniker than IPRAT. Though most advanced metric guys and sabermetricians have nearly phased out WHIP, Okrent’s formula changed how the average fan assesses his or her favorite pitchers and opened the door for a litany of baseball nerds (such as your friendly author) to make fun of the term IPRAT as well as ask the question: how could the father of fantasy baseball (Okrent) never win a title in his leagues?
As for 2015, there are two things you should know about WHIP. First, it is dominated by dominant relievers. Closers and setup men have historically dominated this category, more so in the last five years. Obviously this will help the fantasy owner that forgoes drafting starters and instead grabs relievers. This makes sense considering that a closer will only face a batter once whereas a starter will face a batter up to four times in a given start and batters typically improve against pitchers in the second, third and fourth at-bats in a game against the same pitcher.
The second thing you should know about WHIP is that K rate is the best advanced metric to use when trying to properly project WHIP. Clearly this needs no explanation but you get one anyway. If a pitcher is striking out batters at a high rate that means those batters are not putting the ball into play and hence any chance of a ball squeaking by for a hit is negated.
Keeping these two factors in mind, this list will attempt to properly predict in no particular order which ten pitchers in the league will finish with the best WHIP. Middle relievers need not apply since they typically do not reach the minimum innings pitched threshold.
Relievers That Will Lead MLB in WHIP
1. Aroldis Chapman – CIN, RP
Coming off a season in which Chapman struck out batters at a ridiculous 52.5% clip, the Cincinnati closer is arguably in the prime of his career. He is completely healthy to start the season and should be the number one relief pitcher available on most draft boards.
2. Craig Kimbrel – ATL, RP
Kimbrel has lost a bit of velocity over the past couple seasons which is a minor cause for concern. He still remains a top option at the relief pitcher position. With the Braves evidently going into rebuild mode, Kimbrel will lose on save opportunities but should still get plenty of pitching opportunities to maintain and expand on that career 0.90 WHIP.
3. Kenley Jansen – LAD, RP
Jansen might be out for the first month or so, but that does not mean owners should be afraid to draft him. Last season his fastball saw an increase in average velocity to 93.7 MPH, up from 92.4 in 2013, but with that came an increase in his walk rate. That walk rate is cause for some concern, but all in all Jansen should continue his dominance in 2015.
4. Dellin Betances – NYY, RP
Talk about showing massive improvement. From him combined 5.2 IP in the majors in 2012 and ’13, Betances exploded onto the scene for the Yankees in 2014. He may not get a ton of saves, but Betances will be a strikeout force. His 39.6% K rate and 0.78 WHIP last season landed him fourth and third, respectively, among all pitchers with at least 50 IP. He is no Mariano Rivera, but he will surely be a weapon for any fantasy owner.
5. Greg Holland – KC, RP
It’s no surprise to me I am my own worst enemy. If Holland were smart he would have listened to Lit’s “My Own Worst Enemy” nonstop in the offseason. Posting a .169 and .168 BAA, coupled with a 40.4% and 37.5% K rates in consecutive seasons shows that Holland has some stuff. His 8.3% BB rate from last season shows he also has some control problems. His walks are what will keep his WHIP from finishing at a phenomenal level come October.
6. Brad Boxberger – TB, RP
The Rays have seemingly committed to closer by committee between him and Jake McGee so there is really no telling where Boxberger will finish in the saves category. If the Rays are smart, he will be used the most in high pressure situations to maximize win probability. While doing Triple-A stints in 2013 and ’14, Boxberger struck out 117 batters in 66.2 IP. Sounds like Chapman-esque strikeout numbers. He finished 2014 in the bigs with 64.2 IP and a 42.1 % K rate. Expect the same for 2015.
7. Sean Doolittle – OAK, RP
He may have one of the more fun last names in the show, but Doolittle will not be sneaking up on anyone this season like he did last year. Doolittle finished last year’s campaign with a 37.7% K rate, 3.4% BB rate, .21 BAA and a 0.73 WHIP in over 62 IP. He struggled slightly in August but bounced back for a strong finish in September. The only cause for concern with the Oakland reliever is when he is not pitching in cavernous O.co Coliseum.
8. Joaquin Benoit – SD, RP
Much like Doolittle, Benoit’s numbers get better when pitching at home. Benoit saw a rejuvenation in 2014 in his K rate and BB rate with both rates seeing considerable improvement in percentage points. Benoit was able to mix up his off-speed pitches well last season as he saw a career low in contact rate to opposing hitters. Benoit’s velocity has dipped a bit, but it is clear he has developed as a smarter pitcher since his days in Detroit.
9. Ken Giles – PHI, RP
A Phillies player made this list because… well, why not? In all honesty though Giles is poised to become a household name at the end of this season. In 45.2 IP in the majors last season, he finished with a 31.9% K-BB rate which was surely instrumental in his 0.79 WHIP clip. If the Phillies move Jonathan Papelbon, which is likely, then Giles’s stock will skyrocket. Fantasy owners would be smart to have him on their pre-draft radar.
10. David Robertson – CWS, RP
Do not let Robertson’s 3.08 ERA from 2014 fool you. He had a few bad breaks against him and a few Texas leaguers drop to inflate that number. Otherwise, Robertson had a heck of a 2014 campaign as he recorded 96 K in 64.1 IP. His 37.1% K rate was a career MLB high while holding hitters to a .191 BAA. He should have no problem fitting in with his new team in the Windy City.
