RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, February 25th, 2022 at 5:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/25/22
We have a six game slate tonight. We have one game starting every 30 minutes from 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time until 10:00 p.m. Eastern time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Darcy Kuemper - DK $8.5K || FD $8.6K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
It is outside of the norm for me to play the most expensive goaltender on the slate. Goalies score the best fantasy-wise when they see a lot of shots but also save a lot of shots. Kuemper could be that guy that sees 30+ shots and saves all but one or two. It's definitely not a lock and there is some risk, as Winnipeg can put together good offensive runs, but Winnipeg has a similar implied total as Arizona for example, but Winnipeg we know is very likely to will shoot the puck more than Arizona.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Andersen (DK $8.4K || FD $8.5K), Husso (DK $8.3K || FD $8.3K - if Binnington starts here, I am not interested in him, pivot elsewhere), Brossoit (DK $8.1K || FD $8.2K), Gibson (DK $7.7K || FD $7.7K - GPP only)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Nazem Kadri- DK $7.3K || FD $9.3K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
Nazem Kadri is my top play at Center, especially on DraftKings, if Nathan MacKinnon is ruled out again. If MacKinnon is playing, he is an OK play on DraftKings but I would be out on him at his price on FanDuel. Kadri has been inconsistent as of late. In his last five games, his shots on goal were: 9, 2, 5, 0, 3. It can be frustrating to roster him sometimes, but he is still a guy that has put up 65 points in 49 games, playing in a game where they have the highest total on the slate. He is more of a tournament play than a cash-game play with how he scores his points; he has as much upside as anyone but his floor is zero (which is what he got against Boston two games ago, and he played 18 minutes)
Jack Hughes - DK $6.0K || FD $8.0K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Jack Hughes has been playing well of late. He has 35 points in 32 games played this season, averages 3.19 shots on goal per game, and is going against a shaky defense and inconsistent goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. He is a great value over on DraftKings at just $6.0K and is someone I would consider for cash, for a pairing, or as a potential part of a stack depending on how you want to go.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Eichel (DK $7.0K || FD $5.8K - the top value play at C on FanDuel), Matthews (DK $9.3K || FD$10.2K), Trocheck (DK $4.9K || FD $6.1K), Thomas (DK $5.0K || FD $5.5K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Mikko Rantanen - DK $7.5K || FD $9.2K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
I do not talk about Rantanen as much as I probably should. I do like him more on DraftKings than FanDuel. Rantanen has 61 points in 48 games played and averages 3.58 shots on goal per game. He is on the top line, on the top power play, the team has a 4.2 implied total. If you have the money to spend, this isn't a bad spot to do it in my opinion.
Jordan Kyrou- DK $5.8K|| FD $6.7K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Jordan Kyrou is a point-a-game player (almost, 46 points in 47 games), and Saint Louis has a four-goal implied total. Kyrou plays on the third line and on the second power-play unit. He is someone who could easily get a point and put up 2-3 shots in a game. His minutes are a bit inconsistent. Sometimes he is getting 11 to 14 minutes and other times he is getting as many as 18 minutes. I don't mind him as a one-off value play here. I am not interested in stacking Saint Louis' third line or second power play.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pacioretty (DK $7.0K || FD $9.4K), Tarasenko (DK $7.3K || FD $8.5K), Kane (DK $7.2K || FD $8.0K), Landeskog (DK $6.6K || FD $8.9K), Laine (DK $6.5K || FD $7.3K), Sharangovich (DK $3.9K || FD $5.3K), Kaliyev (DK $2.5K || FD $4.3K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Cale Makar - DK $7.1K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
Makar is the top defenseman on the slate tonight. He had five shots on goal when MacKinnon was out last game, he is on the top power play, and the Jets have a bad penalty kill. While he still has not scored a goal in nearly a month, he will have a chance to do it this game, and if he doesn't he still will likely hit value. If you can afford to pay up, this isn't a bad spot to do so.
Dougie Hamilton - DK $5.8K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Getting a discounted Dougie Hamilton on DraftKings tonight? I am in. Hamilton is back from injury and put up five shots last night against the Pittsburgh Penguins. On a back-to-back after a long layoff minutes could be a concern but on DraftKings, I am willing to take the chance here.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Theodore (DK $5.7K || FD $5.8K), Krug (DK $5.5K || FD $5.0K), Toews (DK $5.6K || FD $6.4K), Murphy (DK $4.0K || FD $4.9K), Peeke (DK $3.0K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Carolina (4.2 implied goals), Colorado (4.2 implied goals), and Saint Louis (4.0 implied goals) are the teams with the highest implied totals on the slate and all are viable stacks on this slate. Vegas (3.8 implied goals) and Chicago (3.6 implied goals) are in the middle.
My strategy tonight would be to try to take the stacks on these teams that are somewhat overlooked. It's hard to go wrong stacking the top two stacks of the first set of teams (Carolina, Colorado, Saint Louis) and hard to go wrong stacking the top line of Vegas and Chicago.
Here are some stacks that I do like for tonight:
Vegas PP1: Eichel-Pacioretty-Theodore and then pick between Dadonov or Roy. The first three will be on the ice together for a significant part of the even-strength time. Arizona has the second-worst penalty kill percentage in the league and the second-most penalties per game in the league.
Vegas 3: I imagine this game will be popular as targeting Arizona isn't a bad strategy for DFS. The third line could be a way to get exposure to the game at reduced ownership. Roy and Dadonov are on the first power play as well, so you get some correlation there as well.
Saint Louis 2/PP1: Thomas-Buchnnevich-Tarasenko are fully correlated to the power play and I like adding Krug for the power play stack here. Buffalo has the 23rd penalty kill percentage in the league.
Carolina: Columbus' penalty kill percentage is No. 13 in the league, and they average the fifth-lowest penalties per game too. Getting correlation to the power play isn't my top priority. Carolina 3 (Niederreiter-Staal-Fast) has scored the most even-strength goals on Carolina (15) and is my choice for a filler stack in a large field GPP as I suspect most will look at line 1 or 2. I am concerned that Line 1 might end up being over-owned as Carolina has a 4.2 implied total. Columbus has been playing well. If Carolina is getting overlooked, however, then Carolina 1/PP1 will be a place I look. I will get a better sense of what the field might do later in the day.
Chicago 1: Debrinecat-Strome-Kane. There is a correlation to the power play, but their power play percentage is No. 18 in the league; they just have not scored many power-play goals this year. Chicago is implied for 3.6 goals tonight and could make for a sneaky GPP play. The offense is not good enough to trust them to smash when they are in spots like this. In fact, if they were uber chalky, I would fade them.
