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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for January 5th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Thursday, 5th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/5/23
The year 2023 has started off with less than desirable outcomes. Whether it is the Maple Leafs losing to the Blues without two of their best players or the Penguins extending their losing streak, the consistency of teams is not there right now, making predictions much harder than needed. Tonight we will continue with the larger slates, rolling a 10-game night and we will have one team playing on a back-to-back, New Jersey. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Toronto with 4, Washington with 3.9 and New Jersey with 3.8 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this ten-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Darcy Kuemper- DK $8.1K || FD $7.8K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Tonight we will have a few options in the net and the two most viable are Kuemper and Rangers netminder, Igor Shesterkin. Neither goalie is in great form right now and both are in great matchups, however, Kuemper is the cheaper of the two. Columbus just got done being shutout on Tuesday in a 4-0 loss to the Senators, where goalie Anton Forsberg made 22 saves. Kuemper should see a similar story play out tonight in what will be a grinding game with chances on both ends. The Blue Jackets are currently the eighth-worst team in Scoring Chances For Per 60 – 25.57 – and the worst in Goals For Per 60 – 0.98 –, both over their last 10 games.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Shesterkin (DK $8.3K || FD $8.3K), Georgiev (DK $7.7K || FD $8.4K)
Centers
Nathan MacKinnon-DK $9K || FD $10.2K
Opponent - Colorado Avalanche
MacK Attack is back and despite the Avalanche losing both games in his return, he has instantly improved their offense. In his first two games back from injury, he has 1 goal, 1 assist and 11 shots. That is good to achieve the shot bonus on DraftKings – 5+ shots –. Both of those games were against tougher competition as well – Toronto and Vegas – and now he gets his best matchup since the return, the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks are just shy of the bottom 10 of the league in both Shots Against Per 60 – 30.62 – and Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 30.19 –, however, they are the sixth-worst team in Goals Against Per 60 – 2.89 –, all stats in their last 10 games. With a few other options in this salary range tonight, MacKinnon should be one of the higher-owned and have a better chance at making value.
Mika Zibanejad- DK $7.3K || FD $9K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
I am unsure if there is truly a better matchup at center tonight. Zibs should be seeing both Montreal’s first and third lines who just got torn to shreds by Nashville’s first and third lines. Furthermore, Sam Montembeault is in line as the expected starter tonight and he was a part of the massive 6-3 loss to the Predators. Realistically though, it is a team issue on defense right now with Montreal conceding 22 goals over their last three games. In Zibanejad’s last five games, he has 4 goals, 2 assists and 16 shots. This should be an easy night for Zibanejad to extend his point streak.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hischier (DK $6.3K || FD $8.2K), Kuznetsov (DK $5.3K || FD $6.4K)
Wings
Kaapo Kakko- DK $3.6K || FD $4.7K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Following the same storyline, we have the cheaper of the two wingers playing alongside Zibanejad, Kaapo Kakko. Kakko has been tossed all over the Rangers’ lineup this season and he has found a spot on the top line for the second time. This time though he seems to be more confident, amassing 1 goal, 3 assists and 7 shots in his last five games. Unfortunately, he is still not shooting enough to hold a floor, however, his ‘cheap’ salary gives us flexibility if he cannot hold value. Luckily and aforementioned, he has a great matchup tonight against a very giving defense and goalie. Kakko could play out to be one of the best plays on the slate.
Artturi Lehkonen- DK $5.5K || FD $7K
Opponent - Colorado Avalanche
Can anyone tell the difference of Lehkonen’s play and consistency between having MacKinnon and not having MacKinnon? The winger had 5 points and 21 shots in the month that MacKinnon was out. Leaving the other 20 points and 57 shots to come while playing with MacKinnon. What is the best part of this narrative? Well, the best part is that Lehkonen is still priced as if MacKinnon is not in the lineup and Lehkonen has a great matchup tonight against the Cancuks defense. He could easily become one of the higher-owned wingers on the slate for multiple reasons.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $9K || FD $9.9K), Bratt (DK $5.3K || FD $7.3K)
Defense
Erik Gustafsson- DK $4.5K || FD $4.3K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
There is really not much else I can say about Gustafsson, other than lock him in and repeat for every slate. The defender has easily surpassed expectations of taking over for teammate John Carlson and he just snapped an eight-game point streak where he amassed 6 goals, 7 assists, 21 shots and 8 blocked shots. Columbus offers him the perfect opportunity to bounce back and begin another streak.
Ty Smith- DK $2.7K || FD $3.5K
Opponent - Vegas Golden Knights
Smith is the definition of ‘boom or bust’. The defenseman is being given a massive opportunity with teammate Kris Letang out for an undefined timeline. In his absence, Smith is playing on the second-pair and running the top power-play unit. For bottom of the bin salary, you couldn’t ask for a better spot for a defenseman. However, he has yet to do much with the chance. In his two games since the callup, Smith has 5 shots. That is sub-par if not worse and we will hope that a fast-paced meeting in Vegas will spark some production.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Rielly (DK $4.2K || FD $6K), Ekholm (DK $3.3K || FD $4.6K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- NYR1
- WAS1
- COL1
- NJ1
- VGK1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- NYR: Lafreniere-Chytil-Kakko
Chalk Stack
- WAS: Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Gustafsson
Sneaky Stack
- PIT: Smith-Malkin-Rakell
