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Matt's tight end (TE) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 15 of 2024. His TE lineups advice for Week 15 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
If you have made it this far, you are likely secure at the tight-end position. In Week 14, George Kittle, David Njoku, Trey McBride, and Jonnu Smith extended the gap between them and the field of streaming options.
Brock Bowers and Travis Kelce will also be included with the previously mentioned names despite a Week 14 fantasy setback. After that, we have a group of tight ends that includes Mark Andrews, who was once untouchable, Cade Otton, who was nothing until he was something, Tucker Kraft, Zach Ertz, Sam LaPorta, and Pat Freiermuth, who have become matchup-based starters with TE1 upside.
With that in mind, we are looking for those tight ends who offer upside. Tight ends who provide fantasy managers with a positional advantage as we enter the fantasy playoffs. Here are your RotoBaller starts and sits at the tight-end position for Week 15.
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Week 15 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Jake Ferguson- TE, Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Jake Ferguson's spot on this week's list is more about how poorly the Carolina Panthers have defended the tight-end position than it is about Ferguson or Luke Schoonmaker.
This season, Carolina is allowing 16.82 fantasy points per game to the position, which is the most in the league. It has also allowed a league-high 10 touchdown receptions and the 772 receiving yards yielded is the ninth most to date.
With a week under his belt after missing the last two contests, I expect Ferguson to return to form here in Week 15, providing Cooper Rush a secondary option in the passing game behind CeeDee Lamb.
Ferguson returned to practice before the Monday night showdown after suffering a concussion a couple of weeks back. One that shook him to his core and left him with a deeper understanding of the severity of the situation. Ferguson followed every instruction provided by the specialist before his return.
Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has missed the previous two games with a concussion. He's doing much better now, but there were some scary moments.
Ferguson: "The first two days were bad. I woke up in the middle of the night and I couldn't find my water bottle. I started crying. I…
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) December 6, 2024
David Njoku - TE, Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This season, Njoku has averaged 13 fantasy points per game. I know that isn't all that impressive, but since Week 7, Njoku has finished with 17 or more fantasy points on four of six contests, averaging 16.4 fantasy points over that stretch.
Since Jameis Winston took over under center in Week 8, Njoku is the TE5 in fantasy. Over that period, Njoku has seen a 21.2% target share, which trails only Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, and Evan Engram among his tight-end peers.
The Browns tight end is also averaging 0.23 targets per route run and has a first-read target share of 21.3% as well. In the seven-week sample, only Ja'Marr Chase has seen more than the seven end-zone targets that have gone in Njoku's direction. With Cedric Tillman missing the last two contests, we have also seen Njoku's target share go from 16.8% in games with both Tillman and Winston to 29.3%.
David Njoku puts up 6️⃣ for the @Browns!
📺: #CLEvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/l3JJ1Ojecs— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
Heading into Week 14, Njoku has seen 30 targets over the last two weeks, which has equated to a 29.8% target share and a 35.1% target share. That should excite fantasy managers, considering this week's opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, have allowed league-highs in receptions (86) and receiving yards (1,015) to the position this season.
Kyle Pitts - TE, Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders
Is Kyle Pitts slowly turning into Njoku? Think about it. Njoku came into the league with all kinds of hype. Maybe not Pitts-type hype, but we all believed Njoku would grant fantasy managers a positional advantage early into his career. That never happened. Njoku never had more than 60 receptions or 650 yards until his seventh season, after fantasy managers had all but quit on him.
Now, Pitts hasn't had 55 or more receptions or 700+ yards since his rookie season, when he hauled in 68 passes for 1,026 yards. Perhaps we saw promise meet production too early, and no matter what, we are left with a desire for more. Even this season, Pitts is averaging just 8.1 fantasy points per contest and has not had 10 fantasy points in any game since Week 8, when he had 25.1 against Tampa Bay.
That game against Tampa Bay was a favorable matchup, and so too is this week's showdown with the Las Vegas Raiders. This season, Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position; however, the Raiders' 15.87 fantasy points against is the fourth most. Las Vegas has allowed 872 yards receiving and seven scores to tight ends this season, ranking in the top three in both categories.
Over the last four weeks, the Raiders' fantasy points per game against have jumped from under 16 to 19.70. If Pitts is just a matchup-based starter from here on out, this is a great matchup to start him again.
Week 15 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Evan Engram - TE, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets
From good matchups to not-so-good matchups, Evan Engram faces a New York Jets team this week that has allowed 570 yards receiving and three touchdowns to the position this season. When you add that up, it works out to 10.23 fantasy points per game, the sixth fewest. With Mac Jones under center again this week, I am very wary of Engram's fantasy potential.
Last week, Jonnu Smith finished with 13 fantasy points. However, all three of his receptions, including his touchdown grab, came in overtime. Engram would finish with four catches on six targets for 33 receiving yards and 7.3 fantasy points against the Titans, who are a comparable matchup to what he is likely to face this week.
With other options available for the first round of your playoffs, there are likely some better options available to fantasy managers this week.
Hunter Henry - TE, New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
The last time we saw Hunter Henry, he was coming off a seven-catch, 75-yard Week 13 performance against the Indianapolis Colts that netted fantasy managers 14 fantasy points.
Indianapolis and Arizona are on opposite ends of the fantasy spectrum when it comes to defending the tight-end position. Indianapolis' 15.29 fantasy points against are the fifth most, while the Cardinals' 10.25 is the seventh fewest.
In the last four weeks, Arizona has allowed 117 receiving yards and a touchdown to the tight-end position, which is not exactly a ringing endorsement for Henry.
Last week, Noah Fant found himself limited to just three receptions and 18 yards receiving against this Cardinals unit. In the previous week, it was T.J. Hockenson who fell victim to this Cardinals defense, finishing with 5.8 fantasy points after catching just three passes for 28 yards.
Cade Otton - TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers
It was a good matchup against the Raiders last week, but not so much this week as the Buccaneers head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.
Los Angeles held Travis Kelce to under 10 fantasy points last week, holding the All-Pro to five receptions and 45 yards. Before that Sunday Night Football contest in Week 14, Kelce had finished with 12 or more fantasy points in five of six games and averaged 16 fantasy points over that period.
That's not making fantasy managers feel any better with the perspective of having to start Cade Otton this week after failing to produce more than nine fantasy points in three consecutive contests, including that one against the Raiders last week.
Since Mike Evans returned in Week 11, Otton's target share is down to 15.6%, with a first-read target share of 10.4% and an average depth of target of 3.6 yards. With the dip in opportunities since Evans' return, it's easy to see why his fantasy points per route run has also dropped to 0.20.
It's hard to imagine that improves this week against a Chargers defense that has been allowing a league-low 6.48 fantasy points to the tight-end position over the last four weeks.
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