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Matthew's three post-hype fantasy baseball sleeper hitters to break out before their prime. Draft these players as potential breakout value picks in 2024.
Hello RotoBallers, welcome to our new article about three potential post-hype hitters about to break out earlier than their prime.
A player enters their "prime" around age 28, so we will only look at players aged 25 or under. All hitters discussed have high ADPs and are overlooked in drafts. This can be for various reasons, but these players all have the makings to be future stars in MLB, and this year could be the start for them.
Now, for our three breakout hitters before their prime.
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Introduction
There are a couple of pointers we must discuss to understand further how we will be picking our breakouts:
- Again, players must be the age of 25 or under.
- Showing excellent plate discipline and/or plate vision. Players who walk at a great rate and/or don't strike out often hold more value, especially in points or OBP Roto leagues. Not every hitter needs these skills to break out, but it's a great way to tell.
- Must have a path to consistent playing time. We will not look at players stuck in platoons or on the bench.
- Hitters must have one great skill already. This could be plate discipline, plate vision, power, contact, or speed.
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
2023 Stats: .288/.329/.447, 11 HRs, 37 RBI in 99 Games Played
Riley Greene, a former top prospect regarded as a primary piece to the Tigers' future success, had a good but injury-riddled 2023 campaign. He missed time with elbow and fibula injuries, and in late September, he underwent Tommy John surgery. He hopes to be ready for Opening Day 2024.
Greene has the makings of a superstar, as he hits the ball hard. With great speed to boot, there's a chance he can break out, and the batted ball data supports this claim. I could list every metric he is elite in, but a picture of the metrics would do him justice.
Riley Greene Batted Ball Data from Baseball Savant.
The look good, I'd say.
If Riley Greene can stay healthy in 2024 and bounce back nicely from Tommy John surgery, he could be among the best outfielders in the league, along with his above-average sprint speed. He has already shown superstar production, hitting .365/.435/.573 in May before missing time in June and July. Hopefully, injury history won't repeat itself for Greene, and he will be vital to the success of the Tigers and your fantasy teams in 2024.
Bo Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
2023 Stats: .237/.339/.470, 11 HRs, Five SBs, 32 RBI in 67 Games Played
Bo Naylor, the younger brother and teammate to first baseman Josh Naylor, showed some promise during his 67-game stint in the majors last year. Naylor hit a decent .237/.339/.470 triple-slash line with 11 home runs and five stolen bases to boot. That translates to 26 home runs and 11 stolen bases in a 162-game season.
Naylor did all that in 67 games while being in the bottom half of the league in almost every contact/power metric statistic possible. He ranked in the league's bottom half in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected slugging, and expected batting average. However, he ranked in the top 15% of MLB hitters in walk rate and chase rate, showing great discipline and vision at the plate.
If Naylor figures out how to generate more power and contact from his swing, we can see a drastic increase from his .809 OPS and chances for some hardware.
Statistics are discussed about Naylor as if he was a qualified hitter by Baseball Savant in 2023.
Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels
2023 Stats: 109 AB, .275/.402/.330, One HR, Six RBI
Nolan Schanuel's path to the majors is an uncommon one. In 2023, Schanuel opened the season preparing for the draft, as he got drafted by the Angels in the first round with the 11th pick. He made his debut only 40 days later, an incredible feat for a player coming out of the draft.
Overall, Schanuel's primary tool that skyrocketed him to the majors is his elite contact and plate discipline skills. As the Angels first baseman in 2023, he slashed a decent .275/.402/.330 line with only one home run in 109 at-bats, and his power should continue to grow as he gets more experience in the majors. The statistic to highlight is his beautiful .402 on-base percentage, which in OBP leagues provides immense value.
Need to see this type of launch from Schanuel consistently this season pic.twitter.com/5gFO0FMDW4
— Jake (@D1SCHER) March 23, 2024
Schanuel's elite discipline at such a young age should not be ignored. His batted ball data supports his contact and discipline skills, as he ranks in or near the top-10 percentile in expected batting average, chase rate, and whiff rate. Along with this, he was amongst the top-10 players in baseball in walk rate as well. If Schanuel's power improves in 2024, we could look at another future superstar.
Statistics are discussed about Schanuel as if he was a qualified hitter by Baseball Savant in 2023.
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