X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

The Tape Tells All - DeVante Parker Fantasy Analysis

Justin Carter breaks down game tape of wide receiver DeVante Parker's recent performance, projecting his fantasy football value heading into Week 12 of the NFL season.

Welcome to another edition of "The Tape Tells All," where I break down some film of an NFL's player performance and try to draw some fantasy football conclusions from that film.

This week, I'm looking at Miami Dolphins wide receiver Devante Parker. Parker's been trending up for weeks, but remains incredibly undervalued and underowned for some reason.

Wait, that reason is that he plays for the Dolphins, and this season has conditioned us all to hate the Dolphins from a fantasy perspective. But while that's true of the quarterbacks and running backs and tight ends there, Parker at least has value, right? Let's see what the numbers and the film say about his season.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Background Information

Want to see a surprising fact that I saw on Twitter?

Alright, here it is:

Parker's been one of those "yeah, maybe he's going to break out" guys for what seems like a decade now, though he's only been in the NFL since 2015, somehow. Before this year, he'd never averaged more than 51.5 receiving yards per game and had nine touchdowns in four years. His 2018 season was especially disappointing, with Parker playing in 11 games and finishing with 24 catches for 309 yards and a single touchdown.

But this year, he's blossomed for the Dolphins. In 10 games, Parker's been targeted 72 times, catching 40 passes for 604 yards and four touchdowns. His 60.4 yards per game are a career high.

Parker's advanced metrics aren't all great, though. Among wide receivers, he ranks 81st in true catch rate, 82nd in catch rate, 34th in production premium, 61st in fantasy points per route run, and 48th in fantasy points per target. Those are some pretty meh numbers, and the catch rate numbers in particular are worrisome.

So, if his raw numbers look fine and advanced numbers don't, what do we do?

Eye test time!

 

The Game Tape

Parker had his first 100-yard game of the season on Sunday, catching seven of his 10 targets for 135 yards. While he failed to record a touchdown for the second week in a row, Parker saw double digit targets for the second consecutive game. He played 62 offensive snaps, good for 90 percent of the available offensive snaps for the Dolphins.

Here's the link to a video of all of Parker's Week 11 catches. (I've been having some computer trouble, so wasn't able to get everything clipped and GIFed this week. Sorry!)

Let's talk about those catches:

  • First catch: Parker lines up outside and runs the slant. Ryan Fitzpatrick does a good job getting him the ball. Not the most exciting play I've ever seen, as it's mostly just Parker...catching a football. Which, yeah...there's value in a guy being able to make routine catches like this one.
  • Second catch: Parker is lined up inside here and Fitzpatrick delivers a good ball to him in space in the middle of the field, about 15 yards down the field. Parker getting the ball in space -- not a common thing, as he ranks 59th among wide receivers in target separation -- is fun, because as soon as Micah Hyde falls down on defense, there's room for Parker to turn on the jets and remind you that he's very fast. Maybe don't let Parker exploit your zone coverage like this, Buffalo!
  •  

    Also, like...what was that defensive look, Buffalo? Miami has four receivers on the field and you get your linebackers all up on the line like that? I know they dropped back into zone right at the snap, but clearly Miami was able to exploit this.

  • Third catch: Quick little screen here. Gets a few yards. Worth trying sometimes, even if it didn't work.
  • Fourth catch: Parker's on the left side of the formation. Crosses, gets the ball in the middle of the field, breaks some tackles, and gets the first down.
  • Fifth catch: Another one where Parker runs like five yards and then cuts towards the center of the field.
  • Sixth catch: Parker runs what looks like a hitch route for the first down.
  • Seventh catch: Dolphins go for it on fourth down. Parker does a nice little sidestep to get past TreDavious White, who slips up and then doesn't get back defensively, which gives Parker a huge cushion down the field. Look at this screenshot of the moment he catches the ball:
  •  

    He's so open! It might not be great that both of Parker's big plays left me thinking "huh, what's Buffalo doing here???," but I also don't want that to sound like I'm being too critical of what Parker did do, which was take advantage of defensive lapses and use his abilities to make things happen.

 

Fantasy Impact

So, fantasy-wise, what are we talking here?

I guess it comes down to this: Here, per RotoViz, are the splits this year when Preston Williams did and didn't play:

And while that sample size is very small and so is the one-game sample of Parker playing without Kenny Stills in Miami (that one game saw Parker score 19.4 PPR points), the three games do start to suggest something to us, which is that Parker performs better when he's the unquestioned top receiver. That makes sense, as he's not the world's most consistent player; Parker's a guy who needs opportunities so that he can bust out a big play on one of those opportunities.

The good news then is that he's in that role for the rest of the season in Miami. Allen Hurns, Albert Wilson, and Jakeem Grant are all third or fourth receivers ideally. They aren't guys who'll step on the floor and have some instant, negative impact on Parker's fantasy day.

I think it's safe to think of Parker as an upside WR3 moving forward. He'll continue to get chances. He'll continue to have some plays where he does nothing with that chance and then some other plays where the defense falters and he breaks off some big YAC. It should all balance out to a string of solid fantasy outings over the next few weeks.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Staying with Clippers
Jurickson Profar

to Return on Wednesday
Jordan Clarkson

Jazz Finalize Contract Buyout for Jordan Clarkson
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Jalen Williams

will Undergo Surgery on Right Wrist
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Deandre Ayton

Finalizing Contract Buyout with Portland
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF