RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! I am Brandon Wampler and I have been playing Tennis DFS since the beginning! I hope you caught my Otte underdog pick here at RotoBaller yesterday and that you had some success navigating a mismatch of a Day 4 at the Open. Otte was definitely needed to be able to ship a GPP yesterday.
Today we will continue chipping away at the US Open with a much smaller 16-match slate. Please keep in mind that during majors there will be big upsets and crazy 6/6 lineups. It is encouraged to think outside the box during these tournaments, but not too much. All ATP matches are set to a Best-Of-5 and all WTA matches are set to a Best-Of-3. With the smaller slates in tennis, you will need to take bigger risks in order to ship a GPP and to save salary to spend elsewhere.
In this article, you will find my favorite high-priced, mid-tier, and cheap plays for the DraftKings DFS Tennis slate on Friday, September 03, 2021. Without any further ado, let's get into the picks!
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High Priced DFS Tennis Picks ($10K+)
Daniil Medvedev(2) DK: $10,900 vs Pablo Andujar DK: $4,000
There is absolutely nothing that can save Andujar in this matchup outside of pure luck with the Tennis Gods on his side. Medvedev is looking harder and harder to beat and a clear favorite to win it all as mentioned in previous articles. He also rocks a solid 14.3% Ace For compared to Andujar’s awful 12.0% Ace Against. Not only is this a clear lock, but Medvedev could also generate one of the highest point totals on the slate.
Expected Outcome: Medvedev 3-0
Mid-Tier DFS Tennis Picks ($8K-$10K)
Facundo Bagnis DK:$5,900 vs Botic Van De Zandschulp DK:$9,200
After just scraping by yesterday with our target in this range, we will hopefully continue with a perfect record here. Van De Zandschulp is another very strong target for this slate with a solid hard court record this year, going against a clay specialist who has not fared well on the hard surface. It also helps that Bagnis owns the worst Ace Against on the slate with a subpar 13.2%. Van De Zandschulp could be another strong point producer to help take down a GPP.
Expected Outcome: Van De Zandschulp 3-0
Elina Svitolina(5) DK:$8,900 vs Daria Katsatkina DK:$6,300
This matchup is a feature of the growing trend on the slate with WTA matches. Each match is looking like a nailbiter and the only thing that is truly “helping” Svitolina get the edge is her incredible history over Kasatkina with a win in all five matches -- four on hard court --. Svitolina will also have a bit more rest after winning in straight sets yesterday, meanwhile, Kasatkina played a close win to Vondrousova. Expect some fireworks here with Svitolina pulling it off in the final set.
Expected Outcome: Svitolina 2-1
Cheap Favorites ($7K-$8K)
Roberto Bautista Agut(18) DK:$7,600 vs Felix Auger Aliassime(12) DK:$7,500
Both players are coming into this matchup with great form and surprisingly Bautista Agut swept Ruusuvuori in his last match. This match will be a difference of serve (Auger Aliassime) and receive (Bautista Agut). The main advantage that Auger Aliassime presents is his strong 11.0% Ace For compared to Bautista Agut’s 12.1% Ace Against. If Auger can get Bautista to start moving, it will be game over from the start.
Expected Outcome: Auger Aliassime 3-1
The Dog House (Underdog Values)
Daniel Evans(24) DK:$8,200 vs Alexei Popyrin DK:$6,700
This matchup is extremely hard to predict and that is why I am going dog or pass. Evans has been off and on and Popyrin is all of a sudden playing top-tier tennis again in his perspective. Popyrin also has one of the better Ace For % on the slate with a solid 12.9%. Popyrin does just beat out Evans on serve and vice versa on receive. Evans though does have a slightly better Break Point game which could help win the match. If you were to split the ownership up, the lean is more towards a 70/30 in favor of Popyrin.
Expected Outcome: Popyrin 3-2
Andrey Rublev(5) DK:$9,700 vs Frances Tiafoe DK:$5,400
As mentioned in prior articles, Rublev is playing great tennis right now and he has had a rather easy path to Round Three. However, he is now presented with is the hardest competition yet at the US Open. Tiafoe has the serve needed to beat Rublev, but he will need to be on his toes the entire match and dig deep early on. This is nothing short of a boom-or-bust play and you need those when the slates shrink to save salary.
Expected Outcome: Tiafoe 3-2
ATP Rankings
All Rankings are adjusted by stats, form, and history
Worst 0 - 20 Best
- Medvedev-20
- Tsitsipas-19
- Van De Zandschulp-14.5
- Schwartzman-13.5
- Auger Aliassime-9.5
- Rublev-8.5
- Popyrin-8
- Laaksonen-3
WTA Rankings
All Rankings are adjusted by stats, form, and history
Worst 0 - 20 Best
- Osaka-19
- Svitolina-18
- Krejcikova-14
- Kerber-9
- Sabalenka-8.5
- Jabeur-8
- Muguruza-4.5
- Halep-3.5
Thanks for reading The First Serve! Good luck in all of your contests today! If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions
