X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

The Cut List (Week 4) - Time to Let Go?

Nate Green's list of early-season busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball owners may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 4 of the season.

We're past the 10% mark of the season now for this, April's penultimate Cut List. That still doesn't mean free rein to chop off your roster anyone you don't like, but samples are only increasing, playing time divisions becoming clearer, injuries piling up. That said, the Watch-Out list of players to keep for now won't appear, at least this week. While it's a cute play on the Watch List concept (hopefully), it mostly was to deal with extremely early samples where few players are truly cuttable. That's still the case for early samples, but it's a nuance that is difficult to maintain right now. That section may return in the future as events dictate.

Instead, today's theme is the short term. Each player below could eventually turn in a useful campaign, but the odds are lower than for others, and their reputation is also to the point where fellow managers may be slow to pick up on those signs of usefulness if they do appear.

Stats are through Friday, April 19. Remember that these recommendations are for standard leagues up to 12 teams, which of course means the players can be dropped in shallower leagues than 12. However, formats like dynasty or AL/NL-only are a completely different ballgame (so to speak). As usual, find a link to the Waiver Wire Pickup List for a preferred player at the end of each cut recommendation.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Week 4 Cut Candidates

Brian Dozier (2B, WAS)

Dozier's biggest problem may not be that he's hitting .182/.237/.309. Okay, so maybe that is his biggest problem. But also, Howie Kendrick is hitting .455/.536/1.000. As a result, Kendrick is gaining playing time, and it's coming at Dozier's expense; although Dozier has started two consecutive games, Kendrick got the start in three of the previous four.

Although Kendrick plays the outfield, the Nationals are completely set there down to fourth outfielder Michael A. Taylor, and so second base is the natural place put Kendrick as long as he's this hot. That's bad news for Dozier, at least in the short term.

Nor is it a case of Kendrick blooping singles across the field while Dozier hits rockets into gloves. Kendrick is averaging 96.6 mph at 16.2 degrees for a whopping (and unsustainable) .627 xwOBA, while Dozier is at 87.7 mph, 7.2 degrees, and .262 on the xwOBA. For Dozier, that 7.2 degrees is worrying, as he has never been below 16.5 in a full season before. His walk rate of 5.5% is also half of his 11.1% marks in 2017 and '18 while his K rate is up to 23.7% from years closer to 20. Last year was a struggle and this season is shaping up to be even more of one.

Preferred pickup: Try for Ryan McMahon in Colorado, who will also offer positional flexibility. Chad Pinder does the same, albeit not in Colorado. Click here for more on McMahon, and here for more on Pinder.

Tyler White (1B, HOU)

White has played in 12 and started nine of Houston's 19 games. Not helping is the .212/.333/.242 slash line, 33.3% strikeout rate, 0.9 degree launch angle, or the .249 xwOBA, which is actually even lower than his .274 wOBA. Just to hit .212 he's needed a .350 BABIP; not coincidentally, his expected batting average per Statcast is a woeful .170.

Houston has a stacked offense and this could end up one of those vicious cycles where a player needs at-bats to break out of a slump, but gets fewer at-bats because he's slumping too badly. The only real sign of hope is that perhaps the patience exhibited by a 15.1% walk rate pays off somehow. Even in an OBP league, that leaves White as essentially a one-category asset. Perhaps it turns around, but sometimes, you can't afford to wait and see.

Lack of playing time plus struggling when playing is, as we've tried to establish, a wicked combination for a player's fantasy value, even if you like the talent.

Preferred pickup: Ryan McMahon works here (see Dozier for more).

Nick Pivetta (SP, PHI) and Corbin Burnes (SP, MIL)

This feels a bit cheap to mention, but yes, demoted pitchers can be cut in standard leagues, no matter how promising they are (or were). It's not without risks; someone who cut Touki Toussaint after he failed to make the Opening Day roster may have kicked themselves if unable to pick him back up after his fairly quick return to the Majors, especially if that someone's team ended up with Pivetta and Burnes. (Not to say that example comes from experience or anything.)

Unless you have spots for Not Active players, let these folks go. A player scuffling in MLB like Dozier or Rosario is at least accumulating stats, no matter how mediocre they might be; if you're stuck with them, you can at least pick spots against bad pitchers or in good parks to try and squeeze value somewhere on a Monday or Thursday with only a few games. A demoted player, however, just takes up a bench spot. And in this case, it's not one that has you excited like a blank slate such as Forrest Whitley.

A statistical deep dive is hardly necessary in a situation like this, unless there's some blatant reason why the demotion was a mistake in the first place. But Pivetta has a 4.73 xFIP and 4.82 SIERA. There is more optimism for Burnes with a 3.72 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA, but he's got a whopping 9.80 FIP thanks to an unbelievable 5.60 HR/9. Statcast backs that up with an expected slugging of .686 and expected wOBA of .446. Both demotion decisions are logical, and so is the decision to drop.

Preferred pickup: These players' values are so tanked, and pitching also so bad, that it's almost a punt on what to do when dropping. One suggestion, however, is Mike Soroka; more on Soroka here. Streaming the spot may make sense too.

Trevor May (RP, MIN)

Not only is May 0-for-0 in save situations, he has a 4.93 xFIP and 4.89 SIERA. Even Trevor Hildenberger--who got lost in the shuffle of May's hype, Taylor Rogers getting Minnesota's first save opportunity, and Blake Parker getting most of the rest--got a save chance before May. (Both of them. The player and the month? Let's move on.)

May's swinging strike rate improved every year from 2014-18, reaching a career high of 15.4% last season. This year, he's down to 11.3%, which is still above average but not by enough for a high-leverage reliever. And so while his 17.7% strikeout rate, barely half of last year's 35.0% mark, should improve, it's also not a complete fluke.

It appears Trevor May is fourth at best on Minnesota's ninth-inning depth chart. May may figure out how to start inducing whiffs again, but it could be a long road into save situations even if Parker falters. And even if May does figure it out, he could be used as the fireman instead of being limited to the ninth inning. But right now, May's larger issue is the path to providing ratio help once again. Give him time to figure it out on the wire. There isn't enough room on fantasy teams for any relief pitcher so buried on the saves depth chart.

Preferred pickup: Hector Neris isn't a full-time closer, but he is a part-time one, which is more than can be said for May. Click here for more on Neris.

 

The Watch Out List

Amed Rosario (SS, NYM)

The Mets are insisting that Amed Rosario happens, giving him 19 of their first 20 starts at shortstop. Rosario is resisting. He got the K rate down to 20.1% last season, but this year it's back up to near 2017 levels at 28.0%. Despite a .358 BABIP, he's hitting just .260, and he's swinging and missing 16.7% of the time, also up from last year.

The argument to keeping Rosario is to get steals at shortstop. He's two-for-three on the bases so far. Using a very crude estimate of how often a player goes, (SB+CS) / (1B+BB+HBP), Rosario attempted a steal 26.7% of the time last year (35/131) compared to only 15% of the time this year (3/20). Since he's batting so low in the order, it makes sense he's stealing less, as the pitcher's spot looms large in so many scenarios. But that only hurts his value even more.

Rosario's 2019 ceiling at this point is quite unimpressive. Even if he turns it around somewhat, a good year for him might only have fringe value. It may not be worth waiting around for in shallower leagues. Lewis Brinson, whose ownership at this point is limited to dynasties, is a more extreme example of the same idea.

Potential replacements: It would have been Scott Kingery (click here for more), but he's headed for the injured list. Perhaps someone like Niko Goodrum if he has shortstop eligibility in your league, or Garrett Hampson could be worth monitoring to see if he picks it up.

 

Last Week's Updates

Franmil Reyes, Jesse Winker, and Jake Arrieta are not in the chart because they were only ever on the Watch-Out list, and now have consecutive weeks as a player to HOLD.

Player Last Week This Week Reasoning
Ian Desmond Drop in 12 Drop in 12 No change in profile
Jung Ho Kang Drop in 12 Drop in 12 No change in profile; K rate still gigantic
Michael Wacha Drop in 12 Drop in 10 Value of stability up as demotions of Burnes, Pivetta, Sean Newcomb mount; but can still do better in shallower
Andrelton Simmons Drop in 10 Drop in 10 No change in profile
Jackie Bradley Jr. Drop in 10 Drop in 12 Not improving, and has less of a baseline of recent success than Simmons
Sandy Alcantara Drop in 10 Drop in 12 Though he had another good K/BB game, something to be said for continuing struggles and 4.46 SIERA
Dallas Keuchel Drop in 12 Drop in 12 Despite rumors of teams continuing to have interest, still appears no closer to signing
Hunter Strickland Drop in 12 Drop in 12 No change in profile
Andrew Heaney Drop in 12 Drop in 10 Still a way off, but signs of improving health plus pitching landscape justify caution
Jose Martinez Drop in 12 HOLD Currently playing thanks to simultaneous injuries to Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader
Johan Camargo Drop in 12 Drop in 10 Playing time has gotten somewhat more consistent, but still short of full time

More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Braelon Allen

Jets Viewing Braelon Allen as Long-Term Starter?
Joel Embiid

Participating in Partial Basketball Activities
Victor Wembanyama

Officially Cleared to Return After Blood-Clot Recovery
Mike Williams

Heading to PUP List
Garrett Wilson

Lands Historic Deal
Colston Loveland

Shoulder "Good" After Surgery
New York Jets

Jets Pushing Sauce Gardner to Strive for Perfection
Xavier Worthy

Chiefs to Open Up Offense in 2025
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Stefon Diggs

Likely to Begin Camp Working on the Side
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Xavier Legette

Should be More Productive
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Cole Bishop

has Good Shot to Win a Starting Job
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Nate Wiggins

Ravens Think Nate Wiggins has Star Potential
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Quinshon Judkins

More Details Emerge on Quinshon Judkins' Arrest
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kaden Elliss

Could be Atlanta's Most Impactful Pass-Rusher
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Darius Robinson

Ready to Make his Mark in 2025?
Jauan Jennings

Expected to Report for Training Camp
Trey Smith

the Only Player Still on the Franchise Tag
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Jauan Jennings

Seeking New Deal or Trade From 49ers
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF