Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Bear Down - Players Whose Target Share May Decrease


In order to rack up a lot of receptions and receiving yards, a wide receiver usually needs to get a good number of targets. For example, every 1,000-yard receiver last season had at least 100 targets. The closest anyone outside the 100 club came was Tyler Lockett, who had 965 yards on just 70 targets.

One way to keep up with who'll be targeted is to look at their market share targets, i.e. the percentage of a team's available targets that went to them. More successful players usually see a large share of their team's targets.

But sometimes, players who see a big market share one year end up seeing a reduction the next year. Below are players whose market share in 2018 was at least 15 percent but are likely to see that rate fall off in 2019.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Golden Tate (WR, NYG)

2018 MS: 27%

Projecting Tate to see a lower percentage of targets in New York is maybe the easiest thing that can be done. In seven games with the Lions, Tate had a market share of at least 22 percent in every game, but that number dropped significantly when he was traded to the Eagles. who didn't have to rely on him as their top target.

Now, he's a Giant, and when you factor in Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley being in the mix, plus the lower volume of targets available with the Eli Manning/Daniel Jones quarterback combination...meh. I don't see Tate seeing near the volume he has in the past, even if he's the team's WR2.

Honestly, the bigger question for me at this point is whether I even want Golden Tate on my fantasy team at all. Let's say his market share is 15 percent this year, which seems like a decent estimate based on what he did in Philadelphia. Last year, the Giants threw the ball 583 times. For simplicity sake, let's just keep them at that number. 15 percent of 583 is 87 targets, which would be the fewest he's had since he was a Seahawk. Based on his career catch rate, that would put him at around 55 catches. So, 55 catches and maybe...650 yards? With an ADP that's in the 11th round in a 12-team league? I mean...maybe, but I'm feeling pretty low on the idea of taking him there.

 

Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)

2018 MS: 26%

Landry's been a PPR machine for years, but the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. is going to severely eat into what Landry's able to do. The last time Landry didn't lead his team in targets, he was a rookie who had 112 targets to Mike Wallace's 115. Since then, he's basically spent his career as the top guy in underwhelming receiving corps, but that's suddenly changed with Beckham.

The problem for fantasy owners is that Landry's made his mark as a short-yardage, lot-of-catches guy, and with Beckham now in Cleveland, Landry won't see that volume of targets, which means he won't get a bunch of receptions. He'll still get enough to be valuable, but he won't be nearly as valuable as he's been in the past. I don't know if I want to take Landry in the sixth round if we see him only grabbing something like 20 percent of the available targets in Cleveland, because he isn't explosive enough to turn those targets into huge yardage totals.

 

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)

2018 MS: 22%

Age and the Cardinals revamping the receiver room have me lower on Larry Fitzgerald than I've ever been on him, even with Arizona's new Air Raid look factored in.

The biggest issue for Fitzgerald is that the Cardinals have so many more viable options all of a sudden. Christian Kirk had the same or higher target share that Fitzgerald had in the last three games Kirk played, and he's set to see an even more expanded role this season. Andy Isabella was drafted, and he fits the new wave of NFL slot receivers really well as undersized but fast. Isabella is a guy who can make plays near the line of scrimmage and do sweep plays as well. Hakeem Butler has some room to grow into, but he projects to be a solid downfield target for Kyler Murray. David Johnson is one of the NFL's best receiving backs as well.

All this suggests to me that Fitzgerald, in what's likely his final NFL season, gets used a lot more sparingly than he did in the past. 2018 was already the season where he had the third-fewest targets of his career, and he didn't play a full 16 games in the two seasons where he had fewer. It's clear that Fitzgerald is trending down at this point. He won't hit that 20 percent market share.

 

Eric Ebron (TE, IND)

2018 MS: 17%

I couldn't end this article without talking about a tight end, and what better tight end to discuss than Eric Ebron, who had a 17 percent market share of Indianapolis' targets last year. Ebron was second on the team in targets, with just TY Hilton finishing ahead of him.

That's going to change in 2019, as the Colts have added more weapons for Andrew Luck. They signed Devin Funchess, who can be a big red zone target who'll take away Eric Ebron's red zone opportunities. There's rookie Parris Campbell, who's been hyped all Summer and should be used at least as much -- if not more -- than Chester Rogers was last year.

And there's tight end Jack Doyle, who played in just six games after dealing with a variety of injuries, including a freak kidney injury that ended his season early.

When Doyle was healthy in 2017, he was targeted 108 times, catching 80 passes for 690 yards and four touchdowns. Yes, Ebron's presence cuts into Doyle's usage, but a healthy Doyle won't just be ignored. In the five games the two played together, here was Ebron's target share: nine percent, 13 percent, 10 percent, 10 percent, and 18 percent. Only one of those five weeks saw Ebron have a market share higher than his season average, and I'm expecting 2019 to look similar.

Ebron getting a 10 percent market share in this offense isn't going to completely sink his value, especially with how involved he can be down near the goal line, but it does mean that he's likely to be drafted higher than he should be. Ebron's being drafted off of a season where the Colts just didn't have viable weapons. This year, they should have at least two (and maybe three, depending on how fast Campbell gets up to speed) more than last season. The ball's going to be spread around more.

More ADP Busts and Avoids




More Recent Articles

 

Best Waiver Wire Pickups from 2019

Each and every year we see an incredible number of players step foot on the NFL gridiron. Just in 2019, using Pro-Football-Reference.com Play Index, a total of 2,025 players took part in at least one game while one (Emmanuel Sanders) did the impossible and played 17 (!) games in the regular season as he was... Read More


Tight End VOS (Values Over Starter): 2019 Season In Context

The 2019 fantasy football season is over. That is not something we like to say considering the empty path we have ahead of us until we reach draft season again in eight months. The good thing about it, though, is that we have plenty of time to analyze what happened during the past few weeks... Read More


Biggest Surprises of 2019: Running Back

The 2019 NFL season was an interesting year for the running back position. Christian McCaffrey was the overall RB1, but some of the other top players fell below expectations. That led to some interesting final results when the final season standings came around. And while some of those -- Dalvin Cook as the RB3, Leonard... Read More


Quarterback VOS (Values Over Starter): 2019 Season In Context

The 2019 fantasy football season is over. That is not something we like to say considering the empty path we have ahead of us until we reach draft season again in eight months. The good thing about it, though, is that we have plenty of time to analyze what happened during the past few weeks... Read More


2019 RotoBaller NFL Challenge - And The @Fleaflicker Winner Is...

What a season, RotoBallers. Fantasy football is always a fun, interesting, and long season - filled with injuries, breakout players, and different strategies. It takes stamina and endurance to win the marathon, and we're here today to recognize those who pulled it off. With 343 teams - across two divisions - competing to be crowned champ... Read More


Introducing the 2020 Rookie Tight End Class

Out of all the skill positions, tight end is the one where rookies have the most issue making an immediate impact. But there's still always some value at every position in every NFL Draft, and the 2020 one is no exception, even if people are very down on this year's crop of tight ends. Let's... Read More


Can a New Coach Fix Baker Mayfield in 2020?

Another season has passed and another disappointment by Browns fans has been realized. Baker Mayfield got the head coach he wanted in Freddie Kitchens in 2019. In 2020, hopefully he's got the one he needs in Kevin Stefanski. Last season, under Kitchens, Mayfield had a coach he could control and manipulate. He did just that... Read More


Wide Receiver VOS (Values Over Starter): 2019 Season In Context

The one (and only) good thing about fantasy football season ending is that we have plenty of time to analyze what happened during the past few months and put performances into context to prepare for next season. As football is an ever-evolving game, though, it makes sense to assess how good players were in fantasy... Read More


The King's Keeper Corner: NFL Postseason Impacts on Player Outlooks

With a break in the postseason NFL action, it is time to reflect on what we have seen in the playoffs so far and how certain performances will affect fantasy football outlooks in keeper and dynasty formats. How players respond and what they deliver at the most intense and critical times of the season can... Read More


Introducing Value Over Starter Football Metrics

When it comes to fantasy sports, we're always looking for the highest possible Return On Investment or ROI. This concept is easy to understand: in both Daily Fantasy and re-draft/fantasy leagues, ROI would come down to how many points a player returns relative to his salary, or the price you paid (given his ADP on... Read More


Biggest Breakouts of 2019: Quarterback

2019 was a very interesting season of fantasy football, to say the least. It's safe to say no one was banking on the season that we saw from Lamar Jackson but he wasn't the only one to stand out. At the quarterback position, we saw some really exciting players start to shine and some older... Read More


Goodbye Runners, Hello Pass-Catching RBs: 2019 Season Trends

As the 2019 summer kept going we all had two things in our minds with regard to September's fantasy drafts and both of them were related to running backs: Where in the world are Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon and when will they be back? It made sense back then (and it still does now,... Read More


Where Does 2019 Rank Historically Among ADP Movers?

I have worked on a season-review series of articles in which I have analyzed the biggest winners and losers in terms of ADP entering draft season compared to the end of the year final results. It was plenty of fun looking back at the gambles most of us took which ultimately paid off, but also... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Tight End

2019 was not the record-breaking season for tight ends 2018 was. San Francisco’s George Kittle (most receiving yards for a TE in a season) and Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz (most receptions for a TE in a season) did not break the records they set last season, although both were fine for fantasy players. Kansas City’s Travis... Read More


Rushing Quarterbacks Are Becoming Necessary

The 2019 fantasy season is over. We are all thinking about what to do come 2020 draft day. So let me ask you something. What if I offer you the chance of drafting a quarterback who is a lock to finish the season with 270 fantasy points? Would you take him and make him your... Read More