Stop that Hype Train! Blake Jarwin

August 15, 2020

Dallas Cowboys tight end Blake Jarwin is an overvalued and overhyped sleeper for 2020 fantasy football. Rishi Patel looks at why better value can be found elsewhere at the TE position.

The Dallas Cowboys loaded up their offense through the draft, getting Oklahoma wideout CeeDee Lamb with the 17^th pick. Now, Dallas has a great QB in Dak Prescott, a workhorse back in Ezekiel Elliott, and three great wideouts in Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup.

Longtime tight end Jason Witten returned last season to Dallas after one year in the commentating booth. This offseason, he headed to Las Vegas to join the Raiders, meaning Blake Jarwin is the new lead tight end (again). The Cowboys have plenty of talent on their offense, meaning quite a few fantasy-relevant players. Nevertheless, tight end is not their strongest position, so just because Jarwin is the lead tight end, he isn’t an automatic lock to thrive in this high-powered offense.

The now fourth-year player went undrafted out of Oklahoma State in 2017 and has only played two NFL seasons so far (2018 and 2019). Let’s look at Jarwin’s stats and outlook of why he could very well end up being a bust.

2019 Recap

With Jason Witten on the team in 2019, Jarwin was the TE2 and finished sixth in receptions, targets, and yards on the team. He compiled 31 receptions, 41/597 targets (6.9%), 365 yards, 11.8 yards per catch, 22.8 yards per game, 5.1 yards after the catch per reception, and three touchdowns in 16 games.

The 26-year-old finished 25^th among fantasy tight ends last season. Among NFL tight ends, the Oklahoma State product finished 36^th in receiving yards per game, 33^rd in receptions, 27^th in yards, 34^th in yards per reception, and 23^rd in touchdowns.

2020 Outlook

Even though he could have had a breakout season in 2018 with Jason Witten not being on the team, Blake Jarwin did better statistically with Witten on the team in 2019.

As the lead tight end for the Cowboys in 2018, the 26-year-old accumulated 27 receptions, 36/527 targets (6.8%), 307 yards, 11.4 yards per catch, three touchdowns, and 19.2 yards per game. He finished 26^th among fantasy tight ends.

The Cowboys may not rely on tight ends for much pass-catching in 2020 considering they have a robust running game and wide receiver core. This is also considering Michael Gallup is now a much better player and the presence of CeeDee Lamb will naturally cut many targets for the tight ends.

The only real competition for the 2017 pick on the TEs unit is Dalton Schultz. Schultz was drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 draft out of Stanford and has two years of NFL experience under his belt. Nevertheless, the 24-year-old has had more abysmal stats than Jarwin, compiling 13 receptions, 19 targets, 122 yards, 9.4 yards per catch, and no touchdowns in 27 games.

Last season, Schultz could only muster one reception, two targets, and six yards in 16 games, which might as well be nothing. Therefore, Jarwin doesn’t have too much to worry about in terms of someone else taking his lead role.

Nevertheless, Jarwin did not prove his value to the Cowboys in the two seasons he has played for them, and being atop the TEs depth chart does not necessarily mean anything positive for his fantasy value. The tight end’s small expected role in 2020, the fact that he did not capitalize as the TE1 in 2018, and his 21 yards per game during his career clearly put him on the path to another underwhelming year in fantasy. He’s a backup tight end in bigger fantasy redraft leagues at best.

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