X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Stop Drafting TEs Early - Wait for Delanie Walker or Austin Hooper

In our latest fantasy football article looking at the tight end position, Justin Carter breaks down why you should avoid drafting a TE in the middle of the pack. Instead, he offers two tight ends later in the draft who you should consider in 2019 drafts.

There are three tight ends who you should probably draft early: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. All three are very good players who have huge roles in their team's offenses, and with the positional scarcity of the tight end position, grabbing those guys early makes a lot of sense.

But the position really flattens out past those names, and drafting a tight end from the next tier of players can come back to bite you when you wind up weaker than you want to be at a more valuable position. That's why I'm a big advocate of waiting on tight end if you miss out on picking the big three.

Let's take a look at last year's data on tight end production and then look at a few names who you can get later on in your fantasy drafts.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Last Year's Data

Let's look at the last year's tight end scoring and put that data in context. I'll be looking at PPR numbers here since most people are playing PPR leagues these days.

Four tight ends scored at least 200 PPR points: the big three plus Eric Ebron, whose numbers were boosted by 13 touchdowns. Meanwhile, another 14 tight ends scored between 100 and 200 fantasy points. 10 of those scored between 100 and 150. Seven wide receivers scored at least 300 points. 73 of them scored at least 100 points.

And that's the thing. Tight end scoring tapers off really quickly, whereas scoring at other positions just doesn't. On one hand, that might make you jump early at the very top tier of guys, which is fine as long as you only consider Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle as that top tier. After that, picking an early tight end over a player who'll score you more points (and who can play more roles on your team -- you start more backs and receivers than you do tight ends, so depth is more important) is just giving up points. The difference between TE6 Austin Hooper and TE12 Jimmy Graham last year was two PPR points per game. The difference between TE12 and TE16 Chris Herndon IV was 1.08 PPR points per game. Is that difference worth drafting a tight end who'll score 130 total points over a wide receiver in the seventh round who'll end up scoring 190 points?

I don't think so, which is why I'm an advocate of waiting on the position if you miss out on those top three guys. Sure, someone like O.J. Howard is really appealing, but he's going to end up being overdrafted when compared to what his production will be. Maybe it's fine to overdraft the potential TE4, but what about a guy like Vance McDonald, who's getting drafted in the seventh round? Is he really worth taking over Delanie Walker, who you can get in the 11th? Or over Austin Hooper, last year's PPR TE6 who you can get in the 13th?

If you ask me, nope. Let's take a look at those two names and why they're worth waiting for in the double-digit rounds.

 

Waiting For Delanie Walker

When healthy, Delanie Walker is just so consistent, so it's a major shame that an ankle injury limited him to one game last season.

Before 2018, Walker had four years in a row with at least 800 yards. He wasn't a touchdown machine, but he had between three and seven touchdowns in each of those seasons. He had never had fewer than 60 receptions since arriving in Tennessee, and he was consistently finishing as a top-10 fantasy tight end.

Now, a post-injury Walker finds himself getting drafted as the TE12. I think that's about right when you factor in the uncertainty of Walker's injury and the fact that Jonnu Smith might see some more snaps this year, but Walker still has the upside of a top-10 tight end. He's still got Marcus Mariota throwing him the football, and Mariota does like to throw to his tight end. He is also surrounded by wide receivers who don't set the world on fire. A healthy Walker likely ends up as the second option behind Corey Davis in the passing game, and that kind of volume at a pretty volatile position is almost enough reason to draft him even without factoring in his past success.

Walker is in training camp and isn't on the team's preseason PUP list. From the looks of this training camp video he should be back to his old production this year:

Walker's a big target for Mariota to throw to, and if the Titans offense improves this year, Walker's going to have more chances to make plays in the red zone. Mariota's been accurate in the red zone thus far in his career, so expect that connection to be strong.

 

Waiting For Austin Hooper

Or you could wait a little longer and draft Austin Hooper.

I'll admit that Austin Hooper has never been a name that excited me, even after he finished as the PPR TE6 last season. That was aided by injuries to a lot of other tight ends, so it's not as impressive as it seems.

But Hooper's third NFL season did see increases in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. His catch rate's gone up in each of his seasons and he's on the field the majority of the time.

The Falcons offense and, in particular, quarterback Matt Ryan has basically topped all kinds of "who's going to have a huge season" lists, with a lot of smart people picking Matt Ryan to finish as the QB1. In order for that to happen, the Falcons passing offense will need to kick things into another gear, which should mean more production for Hooper, possible something in the 750-yard, five-touchdown range?

I would caution against Hooper in standard-scoring leagues because he didn't have a single 100-yard game last season, but in PPR, he's a much better play. He had at least three receptions in all but three games last season and had nine or more catches three times. Hooper's a good safety valve for Matt Ryan, someone that he can target over and over while reasonably expecting Hooper to bring in the vast majority of those targets.

While Hooper's overall finish this year isn't likely to be what it was last year unless we see another rash of tight end injuries, he's a solid and productive player who you can get in the 13th round. That's a good value for a guy like Hooper.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Porter Jr. Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Toronto Raptors

Garrett Temple Returning to Toronto
Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF