RADIO
Justin Carter previews the teams in the NBA's Southwest Division for fantasy basketball impact, breakouts, stars, and sleepers.
The NBA season is almost here! Preseason games are already happening and draft prep is ramping up.
Over the next couple of weeks, I'll be bringing you division-by-division analysis of the upcoming NBA season and providing you with some fantasy nuggets for each NBA team that can help you make the best decisions as you head into your fantasy basketball drafts.
Today, I'll be looking at the NBA's Southwest Division.
Southwest Division Fantasy Preview
Dallas Mavericks
Is Luka Doncic worth the hype?
Yes. Doncic enters the NBA fresh off dominating in Europe in a league that's miles better than the NCAA. He's got the size of a big man -- I seriously didn't appreciate how massive Doncic was until I watched the Mavericks preseason opener and realized that the dude just stands out on the court.
So, what will he bring to the NBA? Passing. Scoring. He has size, the ability to hit from deep, and has already shown off his playmaking skills this preseason. I'm not sure if he should, but the Mavericks have shown in the preseason that Doncic can play any position on the floor, even sticking him at the five for a brief spell. Doncic is my favorite rookie in fantasy this year.
If this is Dirk Nowitzki's final season, how will he go out?
Well, Dirk is out for at least a little while with an ankle injury, so what could be his final season isn't off to a great start. Once he's back, Nowitzki will likely see a pretty low limit on his minutes. While even at this point in his career he still can shoot, hitting over 40 percent from deep last year, the German power forward saw the rest of his numbers drop last season. With DeAndre Jordan now at center for Dallas, Harrison Barnes and Dwight Powell providing good minutes in the front court, and Doncic needing to be on the court as much as possible, Nowitzki is unlikely to see the consistent volume needed to make him worthy of fantasy consideration in shallow leagues.
Houston Rockets
What does Carmelo Anthony have left?
Everyone is low on Anthony this year. He's outside the top-100 in the RotoBaller rankings and I placed him at 109 in my personal rankings, the second-highest ranking for Anthony of our six writers who submitted rankings.
But there's a path toward Anthony being a relevant fantasy option, a path that begins with "do what Mike D'Antoni asks you to do" and ends with "okay, he did those things and is definitely a top-100 fantasy option now." Anthony has to hit open shots. He has to get the ball out of his hands and let James Harden and Chris Paul handle the ISOs. He has to at least try in Houston's switch-heavy defense. A lot of what ifs, but Anthony could be worth the risk if you can get him somewhere in the 110-120 range.
How will the second year of Chris Paul go?
If Chris Paul is healthy, it'll go well. If not? Less well, but when he's on the floor he's a top-20 fantasy option in an offensive system that makes use of all of Paul's best skills. All of those concerns heading into last season about the fit between James Harden and Paul were overblown. If you make sure you have a guard on your bench who can fill in when Paul inevitably misses time, he's worth a look.
Memphis Grizzlies
How exciting is Jaren Jackson Jr.?
During Summer League, Jaren Jackson Jr. was so exciting that he entered my dreams:
I want to temper some of my excitement though, because despite JJJ being an inside-out player who fits perfectly into the mold of what a modern-day NBA five needs to be, Memphis is a team that (maybe foolishly) believes they can win games and sneak into the playoffs this year, with it looking likely that Marc Gasol and JaMychal Green start for the team. That limits Jackson Jr.'s upside at the start of the season, but I'm still a firm believer that he'll be a strong fantasy option once the wins stop coming for Memphis and JJJ enters the starting unit.
How will Mike Conley look in his return?
Probably good? Before he was limited to just 12 games last year, Conley's 2016-2017 season featured the highest points per game and best field goal percentage of his career. There are a lot of good guards in the NBA, which has led to a lot of people kind of forgetting about Conley's existence. Don't forget him!
New Orleans Pelicans
How does Julius Randle fit with this team?
Randle was one of the Lakers best players last year and joins a really, really interesting front court in New Orleans. We know about Anthony Davis, who will be your first overall fantasy pick, and we know that Nikola Mirotic stretches the floor and helps this team operate efficiently, but Randle is the wildcard this year. Good defender, decent passing skills for a big, an ability to get out on the run...Randle fits well with what this team wants to do. Though he'll be the third big on the team, he should be able to finish with a strong season statistically -- don't forget that he only started in roughly half of his games with the Lakers last year.
Is Elfrid Payton a fantasy sleeper?
Gone is Rajon Rondo and in is Elfrid Payton. Payton averaged 12.7 points and 6.2 assists per game last season with Orlando and Phoenix and comes to a Pelicans team that's easily the best he's ever played for. Payton could see a good increase in assists this season with Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic, Jrue Holiday, and Julius Randle on the receiving end of his passes. So, does this make Payton a fantasy sleeper? Our experts varied wildly with how they rated him, with two of them six placing him inside the top-100. There are worse players to take a swing on that stage of your drafts, but I do think his offensive ceiling is limited by the other options on this team.
San Antonio Spurs
How will DeMar DeRozan perform in San Antonio?
Last season, DeMar DeRozan attempted a career-high number of threes per game (3.6) and hit a career-high percentage of them, which sounds good until you realize that career-high percentage was only 31 percent. You don't really want someone to shoot that many threes at that low of a percentage.
Will things change now that DeRozan is a Spur? Maybe, but it would be surprising to see DeRozan suddenly become an efficient shooter from deep. I wouldn't expect DeRozan to perform wildly different than he did last season.
Who will be the best pieces on this bench?
I was going to expose some confidence in Lonnie Walker IV becoming a rotation piece, but a torn meniscus is going to cost him a couple of months of the season, so let's talk about Jakob Poeltl instead.
Poeltl came over in the Kawhi Leonard trade and will open the season backing up Pau Gasol at center; however, with Gasol's age and Poeltl's upside, I expect he'll carve out a nice role on this team. In just 18 minutes per game last season, Poeltl averaged 6.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks while shooting 65.9 percent from the field. Even if playing closer to 25 minutes hurts his efficiency, Poeltl should be able to increase his rebounds and blocks, making him a good sleeper option for players looking to punt in points.
