X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Sophomore Slumps - Should We Worry About Bellinger and Castillo?

The sophomore slump is a phenomenon that all fantasy players fear. A rookie will catch everyone’s attention after seemingly breaking out the previous season, making them a hot commodity in next season’s drafts.

After rising significantly higher in drafts than last season, you land who you think will be a star, only to have them underperform their expectations and leave you feeling like you overpaid.

While the season is still young, there are some high-tier second-year players who are giving fantasy owners a real scare. Here is a deep look at two highly-touted sophomores, Luis Castillo and Cody Bellinger, who have not lived up to last season’s hype and analysis on how concerned fantasy owners should be for the rest of the season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Sophomore Slumpers

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

Luis Castillo (SP, CIN) burst onto the scene in 2017 as a young rookie flamethrower with high strikeout upside. His performance certainly painted his profile as such; Castillo posted a 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 9.87 strikeouts per nine innings in 89 ⅓ innings pitched. This season’s numbers couldn’t be more different. Castillo has struggled mightily, posting an inflated 5.64 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and only a 8.60 K/9 rate. Fantasy owners are likely worried about the drastic change in performance; was last year just a fluke, or can Castillo right the ship? Let’s take a look at his advanced stats for some guidance.

We’ll start with Castillo’s batted ball data. Three measures stand out: ground ball to fly ball rate, line drive rate, and hard contact rate. From 2017 to 2018, Castillo has experienced nearly a 50% decrease in GB/FB rate (2.03 vs 1.39), a 61% increase in LD rate (12.2% vs 19.6%) and a 23% increase in Hard rate (29.6% vs 36.3%). In other words, Castillo has induced less ground balls and has given up more hard line drives and fly balls; hitters are squaring up his pitches better than last season. Another indication of this is his increased number of barrels, or batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. Castillo was barreled in 3.5% of hits in 2017 vs 10% in 2018. Finally, the harder hits and more fly balls have led to an increase in home runs allowed. Castillo has already allowed 13 HR in 67 IP vs just 11 HR in 89 ⅓ IP in 2017. Overall, he’s getting hit harder and taking more damage on his hits, which could explain his inflated .309 BABIP compared to just .247 last season.

On the flip side, Castillo has failed to help himself this season, as he is striking out significantly less batters compared to 2017 (9.87 K/9 in 2017 vs 8.60 K/9 in 2018, and 27.3% K rate in 2017 vs 22% K rate in 2018). This could be attributed to several things. First, Castillo, known for his hard throwing, has seen both his fastball (97.5 MPH in 2017 vs 95.4 MPH in 2018) and sinker (96.9 MPH in 2017 vs 95 MPH in 2018) decrease in average velocity. While this may be due to the cold weather the Reds had played in to start the season, it certainly hasn’t helped Castillo. His pitches also aren’t moving as much; his sinker is dropping 4.04 inches vs 4.45 inches in 2017, and his changeup is dropping 1.04 inches vs 2.04 inches in 2017. The lack of movement on his pitches, and therefore lack of strikeouts could be attributed to a mechanical issue. Reds interim manager Jim Riggleman said that he and the team’s pitching coaches have noticed that Castillo’s arm angle has dropped slightly from last season. This means that he cannot get on top of the ball, inhibiting the vertical movement he used to induce which caused hitters to miss the ball flush.

Level of Concern: 4 out of 10

While the results have not been good to this point, it seems that the things Castillo needs to fix to return to 2017 status are within his control. It may be an overstatement to say that he just needs to tweak his arm slot, but baseball is all about small adjustments over the course of a season, particularly with pitchers. If he can get more on top of the ball, his pitches will move more, making it more difficult for hitters to make solid contact and increasing the chances of racking up strikeouts. Castillo is still throwing hard and has good secondary stuff, so the things he needs to correct seem to be minor adjustments rather than large-scale shifts compared to last season.

 

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

Cody Bellinger (1B, LA) needs no introduction. Fantasy players will clearly remember the Bell of the Ball (had to go for the pun), the unanimous NL Rookie of the Year who posted a ridiculous .267/.352/.581 slash line with 39 home runs in just 132 games. How things have changed. Bellinger has looked more like a lost 22-year-old than a record-setting Rookie of the Year this season, posting a .239/.320/.473 slash line with 12 HR through 63 games. What’s worse, these disappointing stats are actually bolstered by a recent four-game span in which Bellinger has hit .462 with four HR. He has been demoted to as low as seventh in the batting order, has been taken out of the lineup at times, and has even performed so poorly that manager Dave Roberts has had to quell questions regarding demoting Bellinger to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Fantasy owners most likely paid top dollar for Bellinger this season, so just how worried should they be?

We’ll first look at Bellinger’s plate discipline from 2017 to 2018. As it turns out, Bellinger’s plate discipline has not declined, if anything, it has actually improved. Bellinger posted an 11.7% walk rate and a 26.6% strikeout rate in 2017, and his numbers have minimally changed to a 10.5% BB% and a 23.8% K% in 2018. In terms of pitch selection, Bellinger has become a more patient hitter, swinging at pitches out of the strike zone 24.6% of the time vs 27.4% in 2017.

Bellinger’s plate discipline has not been the issue this season, but rather what he has done when he swings at pitches. Bellinger has made less contact on pitches in the strike zone in general, making contact 72.4% of the time vs 78.1% in 2017. Most startlingly, Bellinger’s whiff rate has gone up on fastballs (17.5% vs 14.42% in 2017), the pitch that hitters should be most comfortable with. Bellinger’s struggles within the zone have clearly manifested themselves in his batted ball profile. His ground ball rate is up (39.8% vs 35.3% in 2017), his hard contact rate (37.1% vs 43% in 2017) and barrels (10.8% vs 12.2% in 2017) are down, his infield fly ball rate has almost doubled (16% vs. 8.4% in 2017), and his HR to fly ball rate has decreased by about 35% (16% vs 25.2% in 2017). Consequently, his BABIP is lower this season (.271) vs. last season (.299) and his batting average sits at a lowly .237.

Level of Concern: 6.5 out of 10

Unlike Castillo, whose problems appear to stem from mechanical issues, a singular source of correction cannot clearly be pinpointed with Bellinger. His plate discipline has remained the same, even improved from last season, yet his production has dramatically worsened. Perhaps the game has gotten into his head, perhaps his long swing is getting the better of him, but for whatever reason, he has just not made the same quality contact this season. The talent is obviously there and Bellinger is still just 22 years old, so his future is very bright and he will undoubtedly contribute to fantasy owners’ teams for the rest of this season. However, owners may have have to lower their expectations on him, because his current batted ball profile suggests something greater than a temporary slump.

 

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Brock Purdy

"a Long Shot" to Play on Sunday
Aaron Rodgers

Dealing With Back Tightness
Dallas Goedert

Questionable for Week 2 at Chiefs
Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Jadeveon Clowney

Visiting With the Cowboys on Wednesday
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 12, Earns 12th Win on Tuesday
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Christian Watson

Agrees to One-Year Contract Extension
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Will Smith

Returns to Dodgers Lineup on Tuesday
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
Kyle Stowers

Dealing With Strained Side
Kyle Tucker

Placed on Injured List With Calf Strain
Jauan Jennings

Considered Day-to-Day, has a Chance to Play in Week 2
Jalen Carter

Receives One-Game Suspension, Will be Eligible for Week 2
Bo Bichette

Goes on Injured List With Knee Sprain
George Kittle

Placed on Injured Reserve
Tyreek Hill

Accused of Domestic Violence
Jauan Jennings

Avoids Serious Shoulder Injury
Garrett Crochet

Shuts Out the Athletics
Royce Lewis

Launches Two Homers Monday Night
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
New York Knicks

Malcolm Brogdon on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
Tyler Glasnow

Fans 11 in Seven No-Hit Innings Monday
Slade Cecconi

Takes No-Hitter Into Eighth Inning Monday
Max Muncy

Batting Cleanup in Return to Dodgers
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Younghoe Koo

Falcons Auditioning Kickers, Could Replace Younghoe Koo
Denver Broncos

Sean Payton Says Broncos Need to be Better With Run-Pass Balance
Tank Bigsby

Eagles Acquiring Tank Bigsby From Jaguars on Monday
George Kittle

Likely Out 3-5 Weeks, Could Land on Injured Reserve
Chase Burns

to be Activated on Friday
Brock Purdy

Dealing With Multiple Injuries, Could Miss Week 2
Tyler Glasnow

Cleared to Start on Monday
Logan O'Hoppe

Placed on Concussion Injured List
Christian Yelich

Returning on Monday
Elias Pettersson

Feeling "Good" Ahead of Season
NHL

Alex Formenton Rejoins Swiss Team
NHL

Grigori Denisenko Heads Back Home
CAR

Kevin Labanc Joins Hurricanes for Tryout
Ross Colton

Healthy for Start of Season
Daniel Palencia

Cubs Place Daniel Palencia on Injured List With Shoulder Strain
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Returning on Monday
Sean Murphy

Done for the Year With Hip Labral Tear
Alec Bohm

Lands on Injured List With Cyst in his Shoulder
Trea Turner

Going on Injured List, Phillies Hope to Have him Back for Playoffs
Brock Bowers

Considered Day-to-Day With Knee Injury
Jonathan Taylor

is "Good" After Taking a Hit to his Neck in Week 1
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Russell Wilson

Remains the Giants Starter
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Denny Hamlin

Earns his First Cup Victory at Gateway
Kyle Larson

Damage Ruins Kyle Larson's Chance At a Top Finish at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Scores his Third Top-10 Finish at Gateway
Joey Logano

Maintains his Perfect Top-Five Streak at Gateway
Ryan Blaney

Struggles and Recovers for a Top-Five Finish at Gateway
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Xavier Worthy

Week-to-Week with Dislocated Shoulder
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win
Rhys McKee

Suffers Third-Round TKO Loss
Axel Sola

Successful In His UFC Debut
Robert Ruchała

Robert Ruchala Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
William Gomis

Bounces Back In The Win Column
Derrick Henry

Scores Twice but has Costly Fumble on Sunday
Lamar Jackson

Shines With Three Total Touchdowns in Loss to Bills
Chase Elliott

Gets Lucky but Still Has Best Run at Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wins Stage 2, but Was Let Down by Strategy
Tyler Reddick

Despite Bad Luck, Tyler Reddick Does What he Needed to Do
Chase Briscoe

Recovers from Incident with Daniel Suarez to Finish Second
William Byron

Late Caution Foils William Byron's Shot at Gateway Victory
Jayson Tatum

"Moving Around Way Better"
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Gateway
Denny Hamlin

Fastest in Qualifying, the Favorite to Win at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Looking for Redemption at Gateway
Joey Logano

Has Been Elite at Gateway
Austin Cindric

Should Be On Your Radar at Gateway
AJ Allmendinger

Could Be a Sleeper Again at Gateway
Tyler Reddick

Southern 500 Near-Miss Makes Tyler Reddick a Stronger Option for Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Likely Gateway Contender
Alex Bowman

a Long Shot to Advance in Playoffs
Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing Looks Slower at Gateway, Which Will Hurt Austin Dillon
Shane Van Gisbergen

Starts 18th in Gateway Debut
Jeremy Swayman

Ready to Get Back on Track
Connor McDavid

Aiming for More Goals
NJ

Luke Glendening Signs Tryout Deal With Devils
Dylan Harper

Hoping to be Ready for the Opener Versus Dallas
EDM

Derek Ryan Retires From Hockey
Connor Zary

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Flames
Caio Borralho

Set For A Title Eliminator Bout
Nassourdine Imavov

Looks To Earn A Title Shot
Mauricio Ruffy

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set For UFC Paris Co-Main Event
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Paul Craig

In Dire Need Of Victory
Mason Jones

Set for Main-Card Bout
Bolaji Oki

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Rhys McKee

Set To Open Up UFC Paris Main Card

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP