Should I Draft Amon-Ra St. Brown or Davante Adams? Fantasy Football ADP Duel For 2023 Drafts

Amon-Ra St. Brown or Davante Adams? Who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football? Andrew Ball analyzes two NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick.

Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Davante Adams for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.

One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.

In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and identify how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team. Let's get into it.

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Breakdown Of Fantasy Football ADP

Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.

Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends, and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft. ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.

This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.

Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.

Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.

Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Davante Adams and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

WR8 - ADP: 16th Overall

In 2022, then-Lions running back Jamaal Williams led the league in rushing touchdowns with 17 scores. A handful of those were mere feet from being credited to receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. On four different occasions, the "Sun God" was tackled at the one-yard line. Once more, in Week 3, he was brought down at the two, and two more times the play ended at the four-yard line.

For argument's sake, we'll remove the plays where St. Brown got stopped at the four-yard line and his attempt where he was one-yard short in Week 5 against New England, because the Lions did not actually score on that drive. If you add the other four touchdowns to his season-long total of six, he finishes the season with 291.6 PPR fantasy points. Remove the Dallas game when he registered just one catch before departing the game with concussion-like symptoms, and the third-year receiver posted 19.44 PPR points per game. His average would have ranked fifth in the league at the wide receiver position.

Sure, that's a lot of "what ifs" and stat-bending to prove a point. However, the real point to be made is that Amon-Ra St. Brown is an elite receiver and his name should be mentioned alongside Justin Jefferson and company. In 2022, his route win rate of 52.8% ranked second among all wideouts.

St. Brown finished the 2022 season eighth in targets (146) and third in target rate (32.3%) among wide receivers, but only ran 452 routes. That ranked all the way down at 39th in the league, nearly 200 fewer than league leader Justin Jefferson. A ton of his work came close to the line of scrimmage. St. Brown's average depth of target was only 6.2 yards, which ranked 97th among wide receivers. Because of that, he's spent the offseason working on expanding his route tree to become more of a vertical threat.

T.J. Hockenson is a Viking, D.J. Chark signed with the Panthers, and D'Andre Swift was shipped out to Philadelphia. That's three of the Lions' six leading receivers in 2022, now off the roster. Also, sophomore wide receiver Jameson Williams will be serving a six-game suspension to begin the year. Their replacements are rookie Sam LaPorta, 33-year-old receiver Marvin Jones Jr., and the combination of rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and veteran David Montgomery. Over 220 vacated targets from the 2022 season are up for grabs.

Don't forget, St. Brown may have the biggest chip on his shoulder in the entire league. This is a guy who wants to be one of the greats.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

WR8 - ADP: 17th Overall

For the second time in his illustrious career, Davante Adams led all wide receivers in receiving touchdowns. Instead of sneaking past defenses in the red zone as he did so often in Green Bay, Adams did a lot of his damage on the long ball in 2022. The veteran averaged 15.2 yards per reception, which landed him inside the top 10, and he finished second in the league in the number of deep targets (33).

While there have been no real signs of decline for the 30-year-old so far, there are a ton of question marks about his supporting cast. Jimmy Garoppolo takes over as the QB1 for the Las Vegas Raiders, a presumptive downgrade from Derek Carr, and a definite step down from Aaron Rodgers. That's caused some fantasy managers to shy away from spending a top pick on the six-time Pro Bowl receiver.

In reality, who Adams' quarterback is should not matter much for his production. In Week 17 of 2022, Adams put together a stat line of seven catches, 153 yards, and two TDs with Jarrett Stidham under center. In 2017 when Brett Hundley started for an injured Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, the wideout snagged 41 catches for 489 yards and four touchdowns in the seven full games they played together. He's scored at least 329 PPR fantasy points in four of the last five seasons.

With Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow spending a significant amount of time on the injury list, Adams commanded the largest target share in the league in 2022. Mack Hollins, who had never garnered 30 targets before last season, was the second-leading receiver on the Raiders. There was nobody else on the field to warrant targets other than Adams. The Raiders brought in an immediate upgrade this offseason in the form of underrated receiver Jakobi Meyers. The ex-Patriot is coming off two straight 800-yard seasons and holds a career catch rate of 68.3%.

In 2021, when Jimmy Garoppolo started 15 games for San Francisco, tight end George Kittle racked up 450 yards after the catch, an average of 6.3 yards per reception. Deebo Samuel tallied 768 yards after the catch, 10 yards per reception. That's how Garoppolo supported his top receivers, getting them the ball in space and letting the playmakers go to work.

Cobbling together yards after the catch has never been the strongest part of Adams' game. Last season, just 34 percent of his yards came after the catch. In the last five seasons, Adams has averaged 4.78 yards after the catch per reception.

Fantasy Football Verdict

There is more risk in drafting Adams than there ever has been before. The veteran will probably still be a WR1 in fantasy but don't expect him to total the numbers we saw in 2022, especially in the touchdown department. He is in no way a bad selection on draft day, but the potential of St. Brown is more enticing. If the Lions lean on the passing game even more in 2023 (55% pass rate in 2022), St. Brown has sneaky WR1 overall potential.

In non-PPR leagues, the gap between the two is closer, as Adams outpaced St. Brown by 355 yards in 2022. The red zone targets, however, were nearly identical (22 to 21), as both wideouts' footwork and possession-receiving game are among the elite.

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