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Dave breaks down 2nd year fantasy football draft sleepers, breakouts and values for 2024. His sophomore players headed for fantasy football breakout seasons.
For many years, fantasy football players tried their best to avoid rookies in drafts. Recently, we have seen more rookies make an impact in Year 1. Players like Ja’Marr Chase, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley have all finished in the top five at their positions. Just last year, we saw C.J. Stroud and Puka Nacua emerge as elite rookie options alongside Tank Dell before he went out with a season-ending leg injury.
While we saw several rookies make immediate contributions last year, we also had our share of disappointments. It’s nothing to fret over. Not all players enter the league and instantly produce. But which second-year players are primed to make a jump in 2024?
Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking by checking out the rest of our content here at RotoBaller. Here are five sophomore players to target in your 2024 fantasy football drafts.
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Anthony Richardson, QB - Indianapolis Colts
Richardson spent most of his rookie season being injured and after suffering a shoulder injury was shut down for the season. A-Rich would only play in four games and left two of them early. struggling to stay on the field. However, whenever Richardson did start and finish a game, he displayed some big-time upside for fantasy.
Anthony Richardson. Touchdown. pic.twitter.com/Ps1dvqjxCQ
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) September 10, 2023
In both contests that A-Rich started and finished, he scored 33.6 and 23.9 fantasy points for an average of 28.8 fantasy points per game. At that pace, Richardson would have finished as the overall QB1 last year, albeit on an extremely small sample size. It does, though, give us an idea of the kind of ceiling Richardson provides.
Given all the injuries he suffered last year, it is fair to wonder if his body will hold up over a full 17 games. However, Richardson offers Konami QB-like upside at the position due to his rushing prowess and a top-five fantasy finish is well within reach. With a little luck, he could even finish as the overall QB1. Richardson just needs to stay healthy to have a chance.
Bijan Robinson, RB - Atlanta Falcons
Robinson wasn’t exactly a bust last year, but he didn’t deliver the kind of results fantasy managers were hoping to see. It was not a bad rookie season as he accumulated over 1,400 scrimmage yards and eight total touchdowns on 272 touches. However, he was a disappointment relative to ADP and the expectations placed on him by gamers. A lot of this was due to former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith's usage of Bijan, and Smith was fired after three straight 7-10 finishes.
Don’t be misled though, Robinson showcased exactly why the Falcons took him eighth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.
BIJAN ROBINSON TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/eGpaMill0A
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) November 26, 2023
Robinson ranked 13th out of 49 eligible backs in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE). Among running backs with 100 carries, Robinson finished eighth in PFF's signature Elusive Rating and Rushing Grade. Robinson’s work in the receiving game is also appealing to fantasy gamers. Per FantasyPros, he finished with the second most targets and seventh most receptions among all running backs in 2023.
Falcons' new play-caller and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes from an offensive system that traditionally utilizes one back in a bell-cow type of manner while producing fantasy-friendly seasons for running backs. The new staff in Atlanta has made it clear they expect Robinson to have a more prominent role in the offense. There was a blurb recently about fellow back Tyler Allgeier having a large role on offense, but the coaching staff has also said they envision a Christian McCaffrey-type role for Robinson. Given that Allgeier is a fifth-round pick and Robinson has top-eight draft capital, it feels safe to assume that Robinson will see the majority of the work in this backfield in 2024.
Fantasy players can expect Bijan to surpass 300+ touches this upcoming season. He is a safe bet to improve upon his rookie numbers and should return a top-five finish at the position. You can safely draft him as their RB1 and reap the rewards that his legendary upside offers.
Rashee Rice, WR - Kansas City Chiefs
Rice’s place on this list is tentative pending any possible suspension. As of now, he has yet to be disciplined by the league following his arrest back in April. His trial is reportedly set to begin in December, and it’s possible the league won’t take action until the 2025 season. If that’s the case, then Rice is arguably the biggest value currently available in drafts right now.
#Chiefs Rashee Rice touchdownpic.twitter.com/FR8WwFziGD
— BSGsports (@BSGsportsmedia) October 8, 2023
Rice's analytical profile as a rookie was very strong. Per FantasyPoints Data Suite, Rice checked in with a 28% TPRR (targets per route run) and a 2.62 YPRR (yards per route run) as a rookie. With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs see two-high safety looks at one of the highest rates in the league as opposing defensive coordinators are trying to eliminate explosive plays with two safeties playing back. It’s unlikely defenses change this approach in 2024, and that means Rice’s underneath role isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. He can still be a PPR cheat code.
The bottom line is that as long as Rice isn’t suspended and stays on the field, he’s going to be a great value. He's arguably the team’s best receiver and a second-year breakout is likely. The longer we go in the preseason without any news of Rice being suspended, the less likely it becomes.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB - Denver Broncos
McLaughlin flashed big-time upside in limited action as a rookie. PFF graded him as their 16th-highest rusher, and he also finished seventh in PFF’s Elusive Rating. Among backs with 65-plus rush attempts, McLaughlin finished fifth in Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT) per the FantasyPoints Data Suite. There is a lot to like about the second year back heading into the 2024 season.
Undrafted rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin scores his first career touchdown#Broncos 7#Commanders 0pic.twitter.com/2p1w90ZTxs
— MileHighReport (@MileHighReport) September 17, 2023
Running backs have always been heavily involved in head coach Sean Payton’s offense. After a disappointing season from veteran back Javonte Williams, McLaughlin may command more touches this year. If he can carve out a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles-type of role, he will be a huge asset in PPR leagues.
Much like last offseason, McLaughlin is impressing the coaching staff with his work ethic.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on Jaleel McLaughlin:
“He’s here at 5:15, even in the offseason. First one here, running in the weight room, and by the time he’s at breakfast and most people are arriving, he’s put in a good hour and a half’s worth of work. It’s just the way he’s wired,… pic.twitter.com/qMk17cfd6h
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 5, 2024
Jaleel is the exact type of player who can help you win your league if he hits, but he also has some standalone value as a situational back and pass-catcher for the Broncos, which makes it feel like we are drafting him at his floor. Draft McLaughlin and reap the rewards
Tyjae Spears, RB - Tennessee Titans
Spears was stuck behind starting back Derrick Henry for most of his rookie season. Despite that, Spears finished ninth among all running backs in PFF's signature Elusive Rating and 22nd in Breakaway Run Rate.
Tyjae Spears breaks away for a 33-yard touchdown run 🔥
(via @Titans) pic.twitter.com/2m9V4ndEFT
— The MMQB (@theMMQB) August 20, 2023
With the Titans allowing Henry to walk in free agency, Spears was poised to take over as the Titans' new RB1. That changed once the team signed former Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard in free agency. Pollard is coming off a down season where he averaged a career-low 4.0 yards per carry and saw many of his advanced metrics decline from his 2022 season. The two backs figure to split touches to start the year.
Spears is younger and appears to be the more explosive back. He also finished higher than Pollard in Elusive Rating, RYOE, and MTF/ATT per PFF. If Pollard’s 2023 struggles bleed into 2024, Tennessee may hand the reins over to Spears completely. Ranked as RotoBaller’s RB31, fantasy gamers can expect Spears to improve upon his rookie year numbers.
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