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Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick may be a fantasy football sleeper and draft value. Antonio Losada analyzes Fitzpatrick's value as a QB in a rebuilding Dolphins franchise.
What we enjoyed in Tampa Bay just last year with the Winston-Fitz pair we will enjoy in Miami with Fitzpatrick joining Josh Rosen. Prepare for some fireworks, because they are coming.
To call Ryan Fitzpatrick a sleeper is falling short. Fitzpatrick is more akin to your sleeper's favorite sleeper if anything at all. Let me make something clear before I keep on delving on Fitzpatrick: don't draft him. Even if there is all of the potential in him. Even if there is a chance Rosen gets injured and Fitzpatrick gets handed the reins for 16 games. Even if he maybe goes and start the season on a scorching hot string of performances. Don't waste a pick on him if you're not playing in a 2QB league (where he could be the QB3 and backup at most) or if your league happens to require a minimum of four starting QBs. That being said, you shouldn't keep your eye too far from his name when he hits the waiver list after your league's draft is completed and the season starts to roll. If there is a boom-or-bost performer out there, it must be Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick profile is very unique. He just played his age-36 season last year. He didn't have anything to lose, so he basically didn't care about anything. He threw 246 passes and completed 164 of them for a 66.7% completion rate. He threw for 17 TD but also for 12 interceptions. The most telling thing about his approach is this, though: Fitzpatrick finished the season as the leader in yards per attempt with 9.62 (Mahomes finished second with 8.79; that is almost a yard of difference, and the separation between Fitzpatrick and No. 2 Mahomes is as large as that between Mahomes and No. 10 Jameis Winston.)
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A Walking Roller Coaster With QB1 Upside
For a backup, Fitzpatrick is not bad at all, but get ready to be upset because volatility is the definition of his game. While a top-five QB in air yards per attempt, deep ball completion rate, and pressured completion rate among other metrics provided by Player Profiler, here are Fitzpatrick fantasy points per week: 42, 30, 25, 3, 19, 24, 13, 8. That yields an average of 20.5 points per game, with a standard deviation of 11.75. We're talking about someone who can put on a magisterial performance as easily as he can lay an egg on the field.
Don't get me wrong, though. I love Ryan Fitzpatrick and his ridiculous ability to go and surprise anybody out there. He will start the season as Miami's QB1 over Josh Rosen, and comes from a season in which he ranked 5th-best in DVOA at 16.8% only behind Mahomes, Brees, Rivers and Ryan. For someone tasked with nurturing a young QB and help him improve in his second year, he's as good as it can get.
The fact that Fitzpatrick doesn't care about winning or losing and that he boasts an all-in style of play fits Miami's plans. They are rebuilding and the more they lose, the better for them. Fitzpatrick won't hide and play safe to secure bland wins. He will go for it every single snap. And there are little if any better backup QBs in the NFL. I'm not praying for a Rosen injury to happen, of course, but if the sophomore hits the IR be ready for a huge deal of Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami. The Dolphins won't have a better option on the roster, and they won't find a better one anywhere else.
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