RADIO
For fantasy football GMs, draft season is gearing up. Preparing for what is waiting for us in our virtual war-rooms is a key part of the process, and the first thing to know is the language our leagues will speak to us in.
The first step is to know if you're going to battle your foes in Standard or PPR (Point-Per-Reception) scoring systems. The difference between those leagues comes down to a simple matter of awarding one extra point to players that catch a pass. Standard scoring was a staple in the early days of fantasy football, but PPR has become the most played system lately.
With both Standard and PPR-scoring systems in mind, it's time to discover which players are surefire bets in one system but potential duds in the other.
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PPR Running Backs
Today, I'm highlighting four running backs who are primed to become studs in PPR-format leagues but not so much when used in Standard leagues.
James White, New England Patriots
If you are a veteran football fan or fantasy player, you already know the Patriots Way of working the backfield. It wouldn't surprise anyone to find multiple players taking snaps and getting touches in New England, but only two running backs project to surpass the 100-fantasy point mark in 2020: Sony Michel and James White, and they can't be more different rushers.
While Sony Michel is expected to carry the ball most of the time (using PFF projections, he should almost reach 200 on the season), White is the one who should lead the way in targets (he's got a 77-target projection compared to Michel's 25).
Knowing that PPR leagues favor receptions, and that opportunity is key in fantasy football, it all looks favorable for White in this format. If White can catch at least 50% of those passes, he would already have around 40 fantasy points in PPR leagues. That is to say, he'd have reached a third of the PPR points he's projected to score in 2020 (153.8 per PFF stats).
Compare that to his standard-format numbers and his production would drop from 150-plus points to under 100 on the year. In a backfield in which White is a pass-catching threat more than a pure rusher, there is no logical reason to even draft him in standard leagues, where he should only be a FLEX option or bench player at most.
It will be hard for him to exceed 300 yards rushing, so his upside in standard leagues comes down to a lucky season of scoring receiving touchdowns, and there aren't many things more volatile than that.
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
The Bears backfield looks eerily similar to that of New England. David Montgomery profiles as the RB1 with Tarik Cohen checking in as the potential RB2. At the end of the season, the difference in scoring from both tailbacks in PPR leagues favors the former but it is razor-thin: Montgomery projects to score 167.4 points while Cohen projects to 155.9. The sum of the parts that build those numbers, though, changes a lot if we flip from PPR to Standard language.
While Montgomery should take the greatest load on the ground (217 projected rush attempts to Cohen's 74), it is Cohen who should edge his partner in terms of targets and receptions (72/58 compared to Montgomery's 32/25). Similar to what could happen with White in New England, Cohen profiles as a 150-plus fantasy points player in PPR leagues while he would only be under 100 points in Standard formats.
Cohen's player profile and usage are not as skewed toward the passing game as White's as he should carry the ball over 70 times next season, but even with that Montgomery will be the leading rusher of Chicago's offense and there is virtually no way Cohen racks up more than 300-400 yards on the ground. All of his value should come from the passing game, and the 50-plus receptions he should get boosts his value only in PPR leagues.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
When looking at the Browns backfield I can only drool. Nick Chubb is entering his third season as a pro and in his first two, he's racked up 194.5 and 255.2 PPR points to finish RB17 and RB8 in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Kareem Hunt will enter his fourth year and his second as a Brown, and in his first three, he finished as RB4, RB12, and RB47.
Yes, that last position isn't good, but keep in mind Hunt played in only eight games after being suspended for the first half of the 2019 season yet still accrued 179 rushing yards and 285 receiving yards in that time.
From Week 10 on when Hunt and Chubb shared the backfield, Hunt finished with more targets and receptions than Chubb in all but one game. In fact, Hunt almost outscored Chubb in PPR leagues in that span (he finished only two points behind him) and beat him in six of the eight weeks.
All of that, obviously, in the reception-rewarded PPR format. Looking at what happened last season and eying next year's projections, the same story could easily repeat in Cleveland--only one over a full 16-game schedule.
Hunt projects to rush the ball around 100 times compared to Chubb's 250 attempts. The difference, though, comes in the passing game. Hunt is expected to log around 55 targets and catch 45 of those passes while Chubb (still a very capable pass-catcher) logs around 40 targets and 30 receptions.
Hunt should finish the year with under 500 yards on the ground and more than 400 receiving, while Chubb should cause most of his damage via rushing (1200-plus yards on the ground are not a crazy expectation, but he shouldn't top 300 receiving). Keep in mind that Chubb will also carry the ball near the goal line, taking away most of Hunt's chances at scoring extra TD points in Standard leagues and his upside in that format comes crashing down.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Don't get me wrong with the idea of including Ekeler in this column. Ekeler was a monster last season, and his game translates perfectly to both PPR and Standard leagues. It is only that he should be taken much more seriously in the former format than the latter.
Ekeler will be part of a backfield that won't feature Melvin Gordon II anymore and in which he should be the RB1 no matter what. Justin Jackson is the other half of the San Diego backfield but he shouldn't be too much of a threat to Ekeler's chances.
Truth be told, Ekeler is a 50/50 player in PPR leagues when you break down his expected points from rushing and receiving. He's projected to get around a total of 250 points on the season with 130 of them coming via pass-catching and 120 on the ground. The problem, as always, is that those 130 PPR points are bulked by the fact that receptions are rewarded bonus points.
If we compare Ekeler's outlook in PPR (250 points) to that in Standard leagues (190) he should still be a real asset in both of them but the bump down is considerable. Ekeler should catch around 60 passes next season, which projects as the fifth-most receptions by a running back not outside of the top four (Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Saquan Barkley, and Dalvin Cook).
All of those players are rushing monsters. This is an area where Ekeler isn't quite on their level. Given that he lacks that ultimate, top-tier rushing ability, you should prioritize him in PPR leagues and fade him (at least a bit) in Standard ones.
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