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John's running back start 'em, sit 'em picks for fantasy football playoffs - Week 17 (2024). Expert RB lineups advice for fantasy football start/sit decisions.
It's championship week for most leagues. Week 17 is the most important game of the season for the vast majority of fantasy football leagues, so start-sit decisions become more important than ever.
Some players are obvious starts in leagues of certain sizes, but depending on the type of league, it can become less clear. So along with our analysis, we'll provide insight into what kind of leagues each player should be started or sat in.
Let's break down this week's starts and sits. Keep in mind that some players are such obvious starts or sits that they won't be mentioned (you're not benching Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, for example).
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Week 17 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
INJURY UPDATE: Chuba Hubbard has been placed on IR and ruled OUT for the rest of the season.
Hubbard (rest) had his best game of the season in Week 16, scoring 32.5 PPR fantasy points in a shocking overtime upset of the Arizona Cardinals to knock them out of playoff contention. He rushed 25 times for 152 yards and two touchdowns and caught four of five passes sent his way for 13 yards. He's the RB12 overall on the season after that performance.
Chuba called game
📺: Fox@Hubbard_RMN | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/W4EOGtZDF2
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) December 22, 2024
There's little doubt surrounding his skill now. The blocking wasn't particularly good on the above play, so Hubbard decided to do it all himself, powering through two tackles and securing the win. In general, though, Carolina has had excellent run-blocking all season thanks in part to the fantastic play of offensive guard Robert Hunt. He was a slam-dunk signing for the team in the offseason.
Tampa Bay has a tougher run defense than the Cardinals do, but the fourth-year pro should do just fine.
Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
It's been a disappointing season overall for Hall, who was the RB2 in full-PPR scoring just a year ago. Due to injuries, the overall state of the team, and his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, refusing to throw him the ball when he's wide open in the middle of the field, the third-year pro is just the RB16 through 16 weeks.
Breece Hall 🤝 snow game
🔥36 Carries
🔥174 Yards
🔥Touchdown
pic.twitter.com/PX4qGNaFR5— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 7, 2024
He's still a very talented player, and the Bills have an extremely tough pass defense -- overall, their D is designed to funnel as much action as possible into the run game. While they've been involved in some shootouts lately, Rodgers hasn't been a high-volume passer this year. And Buffalo could get some key starters back in the secondary, which would help things massively.
If either of the team's top safeties, Damar Hamlin (ribs) or Taylor Rapp (neck, shoulder) can return, Buffalo would get a nice boost to their pass defense, which could funnel things into the run even more and force ARod to opt for more check-downs. Unfortunately, he's stubborn and might rather take his chances throwing more picks.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB - New York Giants
Tracy (ankle) is dealing with an ankle issue and missed Wednesday's practice. However, there are no indications it's a serious issue, and it's likely he's just resting. The rookie was featured in last week's article and delivered nicely, scoring 16.9 PPR fantasy points after logging just 4.5 the week before. With quarterback Drew Lock (shoulder) expected to start again, the former Purdue Boilermaker back could be in for another nice game.
Tyrone Tracy is low-key one of the best young running backs in the game. pic.twitter.com/GrkNzSxwhR
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) December 22, 2024
Lock loves Tracy as a target in the passing game. And he's been impressive as both a runner and receiver. He used to play wide receiver, actually, and one of the knocks on his draft profile was that he was raw. NFL scouts thought he'd have trouble continuing to adjust to his new position.
Instead, he has fantastic upside, and with great target volume under his new QB1 and facing a soft Indianapolis Colts defense, he should have another nice game.
Other Obvious Starts: Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor
Week 17 Concerns - Fantasy Football Busts
Rico Dowdle - RB, Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
After a four-game stretch of double-digit PPR fantasy points from Week 12 to Week 15, Dowdle rushed for just 23 yards on 13 carries against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. That was good for just 1.77 yards per rush. He also caught three passes for 28 yards, and that accounted for well over half his FPTs.
Here’s Rico Dowdle’s stats since week 10 and here are the run defense rankings so far this season. Notice a correlation? I love Rico but they do need a RB. pic.twitter.com/auoNFBlcVw
— idk (@IcyInferno1) December 25, 2024
It's obvious to see the trend here. He can perform well against poor run defenses, but against good defenses, he tends to not do well. Many players' scoring trends are similar. The Eagles have an excellent overall defense, so it will be hard for Dowdle to produce well without a ton of targets inflating his PPR score or good touchdown luck. We wouldn't want to count on it.
Jerome Ford - RB, Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins
Ford carried the ball 11 times for 92 yards and a touchdown and caught five passes for 39 yards in Week 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals. But that was against one of the league's worst defenses. And he's had his stats inflated by a few breakaway runs that resulted in big gains.
66 yards on the first play of the game!! 😤#CLEvsCIN | @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/ASCGNiQ3z3
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 22, 2024
The problem is that his volume still isn't impressive. Despite playing 80% of the snaps, he ran the ball just 11 times in Week 16. The team has seen him play extremely efficiently, yet refused to give him more volume for it. Also, he'll face the team that allows the 11th-fewest yards per carry to opposing runners.
He has excellent speed and is certainly capable of turning busted coverages on defense into impressively large plays. But he's on a team that looks to be tanking by starting second-year quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Cleveland's defense has also played much more poorly than expected as of late. Players don't respond well when the quarterback that gives them the best chance to win (in this case, Jameis Winston) gets benched for someone who's very likely to lose them the game.
Here’s video of Myles Garrett not holding back about his desire to finish his career in Cleveland, BUT he wants to win and is not interested in having #Browns go through another roster rebuild pic.twitter.com/2itSo0UAur
— Daryl Ruiter (@RuiterWrongFAN) December 20, 2024
Obviously, some teams won't have the luxury of sitting him, depending on league size. But if you're having trouble choosing between him and a similar player, we might want to go with the other.
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